Vmedvil2 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) It seems that even Trump knows that aliens exist and is threatening them with military action, read more at https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-acknowledges-ufos-threatens-aliens-125600665.html Edited October 14, 2020 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, VictorMedvil said: It seems that even Trump knows that aliens exist and is threatening them with military action, read more at https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-acknowledges-ufos-threatens-aliens-125600665.html Only Trump can turn a fantasy into politics! If Trump loses the election he'll have to be watched very closely to make sure he doesn't do anything dangerous in the real world. I'm sure the Martians are trembling in fear already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-wal Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 He's threatening dudes who would have advanced enough tech to travel here from another star, hilarious! I hope they zap his silly arse into dust just for being so stupid. Thoth101 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, A-wal said: He's threatening dudes who would have advanced enough tech to travel here from another star, hilarious! I hope they zap his silly arse into dust just for being so stupid. Best to just take the position of the aliens simply not existing, at least until there is some solid and reliable evidence to say otherwise. There isn't! Having said that, I know I risk hearing a wave of thoths who will need to push their favourites! Got one for us? Anything? Not just conspiracy theory b.s. that's easily put down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-wal Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 This is a quote from somebody else, saying there's no aliens out there is like taking a cup of water from the sea and claiming that's evidence that there are no fish in the ocean. Thoth101 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, montgomery said: Best to just take the position of the aliens simply not existing, at least until there is some solid and reliable evidence to say otherwise. There isn't! Having said that, I know I risk hearing a wave of thoths who will need to push their favourites! Got one for us? Anything? Not just conspiracy theory b.s. that's easily put down? 32 minutes ago, A-wal said: This is a quote from somebody else, saying there's no aliens out there is like taking a cup of water from the sea and claiming that's evidence that there are no fish in the ocean. There are definitely Aliens with all the Earth-like Exoplanets we have found along with the Drake's Equation produces a number higher than a 100% chance of aliens, somewhere in the universe. Anyone that doesn't believe or consider that there are aliens is a fool that can't do math or ignores the evidence. Now it is doubtful that the Militaries of the world could even be a match to a alien species that could travel between the stars, we are at least 100 to 500 years less advanced technologically, plus if they have multiple planets they have colonized they may vastly have more troops to throw at us then people with a single planet. Edited October 14, 2020 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-wal Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 hours ago, VictorMedvil said: There are definitely Aliens with all the Earth-like Exoplanets we have found along with the Drake's Equation produces a number higher than a 100% chance of aliens, somewhere in the universe. Anyone that doesn't believe or consider that there are aliens is a fool that can't do math or ignores the evidence. Now it is doubtful that the Militaries of the world could even be a match to a alien species that could travel between the stars, we are at least 100 to 500 years less advanced technologically, plus if they have multiple planets they have colonized they may vastly have more troops to throw at us then people with a single planet. It's not possible that it comes out at over 100%. The most important factor (not even sure it's in the Drake equation) is what % of planets that are capable of supporting life actually do support life. It could be 0% excluding Earth. And then the question becomes how often does life develop intelligence at our level or beyond. It took a while to happen here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, A-wal said: It's not possible that it comes out at over 100%. The most important factor (not even sure it's in the Drake equation) is what % of planets that are capable of supporting life actually do support life. It could be 0% excluding Earth. And then the question becomes how often does life develop intelligence at our level or beyond. It took a while to happen here. Well, like I was thinking that it could be over 100% chance if multiple civilizations exists that are alien somewhere in the universe. Like if there were 2 alien civilizations then that would make a 200% chance of alien life. There could even be thousands to millions of alien civilizations making the chance of alien life very high in the universe. I think I did read somewhere that there are supposed to be around 36 alien civilizations just in the milky way galaxy, Link to Article = https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/06/15/there-are-36-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/#7322fcda694f Edited October 14, 2020 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanctus Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 I struggle to believe "It could be 0% excluding Earth". Simply because life exists here, so there is a non-zero probability for life. And the visible(!) universe is sooo huge, that also the tiniest probabilities are repeated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanBreeze Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 An unidentified flying object (UFO) is any aerial phenomenon that cannot immediately be identified or explained. The military is always interested in identifying any such object as it may represent some advanced surveillance aircraft from an unfriendly nation such as Russia or China. When considered in that way, Trump’s mention of US military capabilities in a discussion of UFOs is not strange at all. But I suppose the more fantasist responses to this click bait headline are to be expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Before everybody on this forum goes off into never-never land, I should explain what I meant is that the aliens being claimed to be seen here on earth, don't exist. That's a lot different than suggesting they don't exist somewhere in the universe. So having said that I need to repeat what I said that got everybody so excited. [quote] Best to just take the position of the aliens simply not existing, at least until there is some solid and reliable evidence to say otherwise. There isn't! Having said that, I know I risk hearing a wave of thoths who will need to push their favourites! Got one for us? Anything? Not just conspiracy theory b.s. that's easily put down? [/quote] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 And so in an attempt to make something useful out of this thread: Is it possible to have a discussion on the likelihood of an aliens either crashing on earth or allowing themselves to be accidentally observed by humans? Or is it possible that any of the wild stories of people being abducted by aliens and then returned? If this is a science forum, those questions should elicit some reasonable answers. So let's make this a test for everybody on how they are capable of taking a scientific approach to such questions. What better way to separate the wheat from the chaff, the conspiracy theorists from the rational minds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 20 hours ago, A-wal said: It's not possible that it comes out at over 100%. The most important factor (not even sure it's in the Drake equation) is what % of planets that are capable of supporting life actually do support life. It could be 0% excluding Earth. And then the question becomes how often does life develop intelligence at our level or beyond. It took a while to happen here. You at least take a moderate approach to the question! And so here are some numbers that we can work with for a science based discussion, as opposed to moon bats: First life on earth 3.7 B. years ago Earth formed 4.5B. years ago. Big bang 13.7 years ago. These numbers are 'probably' somewhat close to being correct, or at least I'll assume they are correct for the purpose of this discussion. That at least gives us some numbers to work with on trying to establish the probability of life elsewhere other than earth. And note that I didn't say, 'on other planets', even though that may be assumed. The important figure is the 800 million years it took for life to begin on earth. This might allow us to establish probabilities of life elsewhere, as well as probabilities of life coming to our earth and being observed. I'll suggest that this information makes the probabilities quite low. (not low for probabilities of life elsewhere) And then combine that with the possibilities of any advanced life would have any interest in coming to earth? At least that gives us a beginning for a rational discussion that's not full of kneejerk bias and wishful thinking. And then let's just add the question of the possibility of life being able to travel the distance due to speed and time constraints. Edited October 15, 2020 by montgomery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted October 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, montgomery said: You at least take a moderate approach to the question! And so here are some numbers that we can work with for a science based discussion, as opposed to moon bats: First life on earth 3.7 B. years ago Earth formed 4.5B. years ago. Big bang 13.7 years ago. These numbers are 'probably' somewhat close to being correct, or at least I'll assume they are correct for the purpose of this discussion. That at least gives us some numbers to work with on trying to establish the probability of life elsewhere other than earth. And note that I didn't say, 'on other planets', even though that may be assumed. The important figure is the 800 million years it took for life to begin on earth. This might allow us to establish probabilities of life elsewhere, as well as probabilities of life coming to our earth and being observed. I'll suggest that this information makes the probabilities quite low. And then combine that with the possibilities of any advanced life would have any interest in coming to earth? At least that gives us a beginning for a rational discussion that's not full of kneejerk bias and wishful thinking. And then let's just add the question of the possibility of life being able to travel the distance due to speed and time constraints. With 400 Billion Stars just in our galaxy, all with around 1 exoplanet each star and considering that there are millions of galaxies in the universe, I would say with that many stars with planets the odds are quite high as since the beginning the universe 800 million years has passed 17.125 times, which is your assumed timeline for alien life to evolve on it's own. So, with 400,000 Trillion Opportunities to evolve in the universe and 17.125 periods of time to evolve, I think with a number of 6,850,000 Trillion Opportunity-Periods is pretty high, but that is a weird unit, I think that number is high enough that it atleast has to have happened twice, once being on the Earth and once on another planet, Which the calculation for that is Planets per star * Stars per galaxy * Galaxies in universe * Periods to Evolve in the length of the universe = Opportunity-Periods for life to evolve or 1 * 400 Billion * 1 million * 17.125 = 6,850,000 Trillion To finish this calculation you would need to take that times the probability of life evolving on Exoplanets. Opportunity-Periods for life to evolve * Probability of Evolution on a exoplanet = number of life on exoplanets in the universe for the length of the universe The Probability of Evolution on a exoplanet is unknown so for now this calculation remains incomplete, it is impossible to know the odds of life evolving on a exoplanet, but I imagine that number is quite small, but if the probability is 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 or higher, we are not alone in the universe. The probability of Evolution on a exoplanet of 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 would mean two times has life evolved in the universe being on Earth and another planet. Number of life on exoplanets in the universe for the length of the universe / Opportunity-Periods for life to evolve = Probability for Evolution on a Exoplanet Or 2/ 6,850,000 Trillion = 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 Do you think that the probability for evolution on a exoplanet is 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 or higher? If you do then you believe there are aliens in the universe or at least was aliens in the universe at one point. Edited October 15, 2020 by VictorMedvil Thoth101 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, VictorMedvil said: With 400 Billion Stars just in our galaxy, all with around 1 exoplanet each star and considering that there are millions of galaxies in the universe, I would say with that many stars with planets the odds are quite high as since the beginning the universe 800 million years has passed 17.125 times, which is your assumed timeline for alien life to evolve on it's own. So, with 400,000 Trillion Opportunities to evolve in the universe and 17.125 periods of time to evolve, I think with a number of 6,850,000 Trillion Opportunity-Periods is pretty high, but that is a weird unit, I think that number is high enough that it atleast has to have happened twice, once being on the Earth and once on another planet, Which the calculation for that is Planets per star * Stars per galaxy * Galaxies in universe * Periods to Evolve in the length of the universe = Opportunity-Periods for life to evolve or 1 * 400 Billion * 1 million * 17.125 = 6,850,000 Trillion To finish this calculation you would need to take that times the probability of life evolving on Exoplanets. Opportunity-Periods for life to evolve * Probability of Evolution on a exoplanet = number of life on exoplanets in the universe for the length of the universe The Probability of Evolution on a exoplanet is unknown so for now this calculation remains incomplete, it is impossible to know the odds of life evolving on a exoplanet, but I imagine that number is quite small, but if the probability is 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 or higher, we are not alone in the universe. The probability of Evolution on a exoplanet of 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 would mean two times has life evolved in the universe being on Earth and another planet. Number of life on exoplanets in the universe for the length of the universe / Opportunity-Periods for life to evolve = Probability for Evolution on a Exoplanet Or 2/ 6,850,000 Trillion = 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 Do you think that the probability for evolution on a exoplanet is 2.919708029197080291970802919708*10^-19 or higher? If you do then you believe there are aliens in the universe or at least was aliens in the universe at one point. Dear sweet Victor, you've gone to a great deal of trouble to prove something that isn't even being disputed here by me or anyone else for that matter. Can you stop now and wrap your mind around the question of whether aliens have visited our earth and been observed doing so? And if you can do that Victor, you might find my numbers useful for a start, lacking anything better? Use your brain Victor because I know you have one. Barring the part of it that's hung up on supernatural bullsh-t in cartoon land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montgomery Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Considering that extraterrestrial visitors are limited to the speed of light. (maybe)(probably) I lean towards them not being able to visit earth so far. But on the positive side, for the likes of Victor and Thoth, they could be on their way and could arrive within a relatively short time of say the next million years or so! Probably not time yet to brew a cup of tea for them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted October 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, montgomery said: Dear sweet Victor, you've gone to a great deal of trouble to prove something that isn't even being disputed here by me or anyone else for that matter. Can you stop now and wrap your mind around the question of whether aliens have visited our earth and been observed doing so? And if you can do that Victor, you might find my numbers useful for a start, lacking anything better? Use your brain Victor because I know you have one. Barring the part of it that's hung up on supernatural bullsh-t in cartoon land. Well, I am just saying that there is like a 99.99999999999999997081% Chance that there are aliens in the universe somewhere. Edited October 15, 2020 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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