You are called upon by the next President of the United States to head up a....

[damocles]

.........to head up a task force to recommend a national program to rectify the current situation in which the United Staes finds itself.

 

You have 100 days to prepare an answer.

 

Using open sources to supply data to support your program, make your presentation.

 

Remember that you only have two and a half trillion dollars with which to work.

 

Remember that the petroleum upon which our civilization depends has topped off in deliverable quantiites as of 2004.

 

Remember that India and China are exploding economies desperately searching for their own oil supplies.

 

Remember that flash wars brought on by the incompetent dictators of this world mean you cannot cut too deeply into the conventional or strategic forces of the United States, for despite what many people believe, we are actually at the minimums necessary for US security.

 

And the timer is ticking. Population increases and the oil runs out.

 

There is that heat pollution, toxin pollution, and species die-off thing. Not to mention the decreasing arable land thing.

 

The national capital/labor working tax base is shrinking, as is the industrial infrastructure.

 

The population is becoming older and less well-educated as the public education system collapses.

 

President Condileeza Rice has a Roosevelt-sized crisis facing her. She turned to you for answers.

 

How about it?

 

This is a PRACTICAL exercise. What will you recommend that will get past CONGRESS?

 

It's Roosevelt's 1933 in replay-only much worse.

 

Now I'll sit back and read what unfolds......

 

As always, best wishes;

[Michaelangelica]

The first thing I would do would be let out the poor silly Australian who has been locked up and tortured in atiny cell in Guantanamo Bay without charge for 5 years

The second thing I would do is close Guantanamo Bay and other illegal CIA jails

and start acting like a Democracy that respected Human Rights.

(not acting like another China)

[Boerseun]

Awesome thread, Damocles!

 

You're gonna have to give me some time to formulate a reply, though...

 

The clock is ticking!!! :lol:

[InfiniteNow]

I first spend time bringing in subject matter experts on each relevant topic, and ensure three of each per topic so there will be more than one view being discussed.

 

I would make the findings open, public, and do so internationally. I would continue bringing our ideas to the people of the world and not just their governments, recruiting people who have fresh insights and practical answers for implementation.

 

I would listen first, contemplate second, reflect my thoughts back to them third, refine the policies fourth, and implement fifth.

 

The biggest factor would be that our policies and decisions were made with global well being as our guide, and we would need to obtain support from high percentages of the Earth's population.

 

I've left out specifics in this post becasue I haven't yet performed step one... Meet with at least three subject matter experts and listen. ;)

[UncleAl]

Consider a car engine without the oil or coolant. Bad things happen but damage can be nominally repaired. The whole car is immersed in ocean water for a week. It can be nominally repaired.

 

Now consider the GM Cadillac 8-6-4 engine. No amount of repair would make it nominally work because it was not designed to work. Intel's sour Pentium math processor could not be aftermarket fixed. Its faults lay in its design.

 

Starting wth Franklin Roosevelt's "New Deal," exploding with Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society," and gutted by Bush the Lesser's cronyism we have a government that cannot possibly work. Its persistence is based upon cheap raw material inputs, massive deficit spending, a supportive citizenry mythos, and massive theft of value from Baby Boomers. Stealing an extra $10K/year each from 50 million productive families is $500 billion/year in cold cash mad money.

 

This is is self-supporting - a hollow eggshell under axial compression - until somebody else tries squeezing the egg just as hard but in a different direction. CRUNCH! China is sucking up the world's entire production of steel, cement, and petroleum with no end in sight. Baby Boomers will be retired by 2015. They will demand $2 trillion/year in free eats plus unlimited Medicare, with no inputs to the system.

 

What would you do, conquer raw materials suppliers and euchre China to permanent Third World status? Terminate Welfare, Medicare, and Social Security? Transform slum bunnies into literate middle class patriots?

 

The First World is already dead. There is no saving it. The entire planet wll descend into transcendent barbarism and four billion corpses by 2050, possibly by 2015. We have scraped away everything of value down to a depth of two miles. There will be no coming back after the miracles of technology become priests' lies.

 

Consider New Orleans. It could be repaired and recovered in any of a number of sound engineering ways. None of them will obtain - people have rights and politicians have appetites.

[UncleAl]

What will harbinger the end? Entities of unchanging international value - coinage metals - will explode in price as fiat paper money is admitted to be worthless. It happened in late 1930's Germany, in "Boys from Chicago" Chile, during the downfall of the USSR and in each of its puppet states... and it is happening right now to the dollar, as you read this

 

The price of gold is shooting skyward and will insanely continue. Silver, historically 1/16th the value of gold since Roman times, will zoom even faster to restore parity. Copper will go wild. Your savings in US dollars will be rendered worthless. Stock prices will zoom with inflation then utterly collapse with economic ruin.

 

The US stopped circulating gold coinage at the Great Depression. It ended silver coinage, silver certificates, and bronze pennies in 1964, forecasting 1970s hyperinflation. Check out the prices of gold, silver, copper, and platinum in today's commodity markets.

[Pyrotex]

Well, then... let's start planning for the next civilization. We need some way of massively increasing the probability of survival (POS) for those people in good touch with Reality, and with average and above-average intelligence. Or at the very least, insure that they have a higher POS than those who genetically indulge in self-delusions, confuse fantasy with Reality, suffer aversions to education, "aren't good at math", or have chronic slack syndrome.

 

Perhaps we could design, grow and distribute a bacterium that sterilizes only people of low IQ???? :thumbs_up :eek_big:

 

Then we need to bury copies of the Library of Congress at key locations around the world for our descendants to dig up.

[Kayra]

Well, then... let's start planning for the next civilization.

 

Perhaps we could design, grow and distribute a bacterium that sterilizes only people of low IQ???? :shrug: :beer:

 

Sadly, it was intelligent people that got the US into the mess it is in.

The issue is one of human nature, not human intelligence.

 

Technology permitted the country to grow to it's current size and support it's economy. Technology is the only thing that will allow that to continue for any reasonable length of time.

 

It would be with that intended direction that I would subscribe to InfiniteNow's suggested methods.

[damocles]

I first spend time bringing in subject matter experts on each relevant topic, and ensure three of each per topic so there will be more than one view being discussed.

 

What are the relevant topics?

 

I would make the findings open, public, and do so internationally. I would continue bringing our ideas to the people of the world and not just their governments, recruiting people who have fresh insights and practical answers for implementation.

 

Consider economics as a subject. You have 100 days to crank out a solution and present it to the world. There are what; 400 plus spoken languages and 300 written ones? Time=100 days.

 

I would listen first, contemplate second, reflect my thoughts back to them third, refine the policies fourth, and implement fifth.

 

The American society is 80% on its way to political/economic collapse within my lifetime. This is literally the last chance we have to go to hydrogen fuel cells, and to a fusion economy, deal with thermal and toxin pollution, try to stabilize the bio-deversity in the range that Americans control, and you want me to reflect my thoughts back to whom? Congress?

The biggest factor would be that our policies and decisions were made with global well being as our guide, and we would need to obtain support from high percentages of the Earth's population.

 

I don't want war as a possible solution, and you just prescribed it.

I've left out specifics in this post becasue I haven't yet performed step one... Meet with at least three subject matter experts and listen. :lol:

 

Again, we don't have TIME. We have to ACT.

 

As always, my best wishes;

[Zythryn]

Again, we don't have TIME. We have to ACT.

 

Action without thought is what got us into this mess.

The first thing that comes to mind to describe action without thought is destruction, the second is mistakes:eek:

 

Now, thought doesn't need to take months or years and I don't think that is what Infi was stating.

 

I think those were a great outline, and wish more politicians would take to heart.

 

I also agree with you that the situation is dire (not sure if I think it is as dire as you do, but I do think it is very dire).

[damocles]

Action without thought is what got us into this mess.

The first thing that comes to mind to describe action without thought is destruction, the second is mistakes:eek:

 

Now, thought doesn't need to take months or years and I don't think that is what Infi was stating.

 

I think those were a great outline, and wish more politicians would take to heart.

 

I also agree with you that the situation is dire (not sure if I think it is as dire as you do, but I do think it is very dire).

 

 

http://www.eco-action.org/dt/oilfut.html

 

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10002504.shtml

 

http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=mj05cavallo

 

There is one truism about technology. It takes about fifteen to fifty years to convert from one source of energy to another.

 

Right now we have too many people chasing too few barrels of oil.

 

You see what this means in the short term with the seasonal fluctuations of gasoline prices at the gasoline stations.

 

Production has flatlined as of April of 2004.

 

As Uncle Al would say, "That's all folks."

 

The fundamental bedrock problem for generating wealth is turning energy into work. If energy turned into work is scarce, so will be the wealth. That pie will be SMALL as we divide it.

 

If energy converted into wealth is large, is plentiful; then the portions we can divide out will be large.

 

I used this example before, elsewhere, as to what motivates people in desperate times;

 

http://touregypt.net/featurestories/hittites.htm

 

The Hittites and Egyptians clashed over Syria for one good reason. Both Empires had bursting populations and inadequate internal resources to support the same. Too many people chased not enough resources. Each empire was looking for additional range and resources for their peoples. Syria, with its trade routes and arable land, was it.

 

Does this sound familiar? It should.

 

The United States and China 2004.

 

Where?

 

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/08/03/BUGSFE1S111.DTL

 

It will get worse.

 

It just isn't a decaying America that we need to solve. It is a desperate oil-starved China, folks.

 

We are out of oil and out of time.

 

There is no room for contemplating our navels anymore. We've done it for fifty years. The cheap oil/petroleum-based energy is gone. Our TIME is UP.

 

As always, the best of wishes.

[Zythryn]

I agree with your premise, that oil is disappearing and demand is increasing.

 

However, if you go into the situation thinking, "OH MY GOD we have to do something right NOW", especially with the current US administration you will end up with a US invasion of Iran which will speed the destruction, not correct it.

 

Brazil eliminated oil from their auto infrastructure in 15 years? Given, the US has a much larger infrastructure, but if we can get our politicians out of the back pocket of oil companies I have no doubt we can go that way as well.

 

Heck, farmers in Iowa have already banded together to build their own ethonal plant and they sell it as fast as they can produce it.

[damocles]

I agree with your premise, that oil is disappearing and demand is increasing.

 

However, if you go into the situation thinking, "OH MY GOD we have to do something right NOW", especially with the current US administration you will end up with a US invasion of Iran which will speed the destruction, not correct it.

 

Brazil eliminated oil from their auto infrastructure in 15 years? Given, the US has a much larger infrastructure, but if we can get our politicians out of the back pocket of oil companies I have no doubt we can go that way as well.

 

Heck, farmers in Iowa have already banded together to build their own ethonal plant and they sell it as fast as they can produce it.

 

Brazil?

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4715332.stm

 

1. Look at the comparative labor costs.

 

2. Look at the size of the auto fleets.

 

http://www.ie.ufrj.br/publicacoes/discussao/automobile_demond_and_supply_in_brazil.pdf

 

http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.18976/article_detail.asp

 

Brazil's fleet at ten million vehicles is one tenth the size Of CHINA'S.

 

http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.18976/article_detail.asp

 

offers your argument for flex fuel cars but unfortunately Robert Zubrin works optimistic numbers based on corn and soy for an American fleet of some 200 MILLION vehicles. He doesn't know what a huge dent that puts into our shrinking agriculture base(That is FOOD for US.).

 

He also forgets to cite the numbers for agro-conversion. 17% at the wheel to road. I'll take hydrogen's 25% via nuclear-powered electrolysis, thank you.

 

Besides methanol or ethanol both emit pollutants at the tail pipe. Hydrogen fuel cell cars emit water vapor. I'll take that solution again, thank you.

 

This is why I propose hydrogen as a car fuel, despite its dangerous handling characteristics.(Imagine Betty Rubble fueling up her Rubblemobile from a hydrogen dispenser[KABOOM]. Better make those hydrogen fuelups via explosion resistant bottle changeout by a trained service technician at a gas station a la the Barbecue grill propane tank!)

 

Hydrogen is just an ocean away and a reactor away.

 

As always, the best of wishes;

[Zythryn]

I prefer Hydrogen myself.

However, ethanol is available NOW and requires very little change to existing infrastruction.

 

Much of our current ag production is sitting not being utilized (subsidies). In addition, corn and soy ethanol is not the best source, pure cellulous is the direction we are going which gives a much better energy ration.

 

Vehicles running on pure ethanol also have much lower emisions (not as low as Hydrogen, but still very low).

 

If you want action NOW, ethonal is the way to go.

 

If you want an answer for 10-20 years, stick with hydrogen.

 

The best answer, imho, is to switch to pure ethanol now, while working on and implementing hydrogen.

[Michaelangelica]

. Hydrogen fuel cell cars emit water vapor.

 

This is why I propose hydrogen as a car fuel,

 

Hydrogen is just an ocean away and a reactor away.

We sell you reillleey ChEEEP natural gas.

Have lots! Throw in girl, army & PM too VEERRY CHEEEP! :eek:

Seriously we are already the 53 state - you own most of it anyhow.

 

Lots of cars are converting to gas here despite the fact that the short-sighted govt. gives no tax break

 

Toyota it marketing a hybrid hydrogen car here now. Looks great.

They are not selling the same in US of A?

Search Tasmanian Uni site for an Article on Hydrogen entitled "A Spoonful of Diesel makes the Hydrogen go Down". -Alumni mag-(Aussie humour grows on you eventually) They are doing some ground braking research on hydrogen motors

[damocles]

 

Toyota it marketing a hybrid hydrogen car here now. Looks great.

They are not selling the same in US of A?

Search Tasmanian Uni site for an Article on Hydrogen entitled "A Spoonful of Diesel makes the Hydrogen go Down". -Alumni mag-(Aussie humour grows on you eventually) They are doing some ground braking research on hydrogen motors

 

http://www.alumni.utas.edu.au/Alumni%20News29.pdf

 

The Hybrid that Toyota is selling in the US(Prius) is a mixed gasoline engine/electric motor car that actually costs more in energy to manufacture than it will ever save in petroleum products. It is a negative energy investment as far as petroleum is concerned. Go figure.

 

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/29274/newsDate/31-Jan-2005/story.htm

 

As for the Tasmanian Uni article?

 

For the benefit of all who are curious.(Article begins page 27.)

 

(Thanks for directing me to it to it, M., It is important to me, as it gives us a flex fuel car alternative to the bio-fuel nonsense that can tide us over to the HFC cars. D.)

 

Now about Aussie humor......

 

What is no joke to me is that I am acutely aware that Australia is a world leader in hydrodynamics, acoustics, and magnetic remote sensing. The country's scientist and engineers never get the credit they truly deserve.

 

That little joke about the US owning Australia is, sad to say, almost as true as the one about China owning the US, because they've bought up all our debt.(Another one of those problems for which a solution must be found.)

 

----------------------------

 

Much of our current ag production is sitting not being utilized (subsidies). In addition, corn and soy ethanol is not the best source, pure cellulous is the direction we are going which gives a much better energy ration.

 

Vehicles running on pure ethanol also have much lower emisions (not as low as Hydrogen, but still very low).

 

If you want action NOW, ethonal is the way to go.

 

If you want an answer for 10-20 years, stick with hydrogen.

 

To go to an ethanol or mixed-fuel fleet you have a fifteen year fleet conversion cycle as people either converted their cars expensively or traded in their gasoline guzzlers for the mixed fuel or flex-fuel ICE or diesel cars.

 

They would have to do it again when they go to HFC cars. Why do I want to do TWO infrastructure conversion steps? Why not skip step one and use the suggestion that Michaelangelica supplied which would allow us to retrofit the existing fleet(rather cheaply) and start the second step fuel supply and dispensing infrastructure conversion NOW?

 

As always, the very best of wishes.

[Michaelangelica]

http://www.alumni.utas.edu.au/Alumni%20News29.pdf

 

The Hybrid that Toyota is selling in the US(Prius) is a mixed gasoline engine/electric motor car that actually costs more in energy to manufacture than it will ever save in petroleum products. It is a negative energy investment as far as petroleum is concerned. Go figure.

Sorry I must have mis-heard. I only half listen to adds an am one of that rare Tribe of Males who are not interested in cars

 

As for the Tamanian Uni article?

For the benefit of all who are curious.(Article begins page 27

(Thanks for directing me to it to it, M., It is important to me,

Sorry I was lazy in not directing you to it acuratly, after all, my daughter wrote it. I didn't realise you would be so interested. If you want I can ask her to keep an eye on developments for you.

 

Now about Aussie humor......

 

What is no joke to me is that I am acutely aware that Australia is a world leader in hydrodynamics, acoustics, and magnetic remote sensing. The country's scientist and engineers never get the credit they truly deserve.

 

That little joke about the US owning Australia is, sad to say, almost as true as the one about China owning the US, because they've bought up all our debt.(Another one of those problems for which a solution must be found.)

 

As always, the very best of wishes.

 

See what I mean; it wasn't a joke about the 53rd state ! :esmoking:

 

It seems we are a Nation of mad inventors. Every other male has a"Shed" where he tinkers away inventing all sorts of amazing things. Unfortunately there are no Venture Capital Markets here so ideas languish or get sold to you.

Science, Higher Education and Health are being short-changed dreadfully by the present government. (While at the same time they have squirreled away 30 Billion! for PS & their pension fund!!) A billion is a big number here.

 

We all pray for China's heath. You can't buy anything here unless it is made in China. Great stuff, very cheap. Fortunately they are buying most of their minerals and uranium from us.

 

In this imaginary scenario (we are supposed to be talking about "The President invites etc) I wonder what will happen when China invades Taiwan, like they did Tibet?

Perhaps they might wait and just buy it back. One can only hope.

How long can the USA go running up her debts to China?

(I live in a glass house).

 

By the way, our boring, old fart of a PM is there at the moment (You won't have noticed). We have had him for 11 years and we all a bit tired of him.

Would you keep him please?

Pretty please?:)

Best wishes,

--

Michael