Earthquakes

[Turtle]

spotted this unusual quake on my way out to see a wizzard. :lightning any of you feel it? if you do feel a quake, please help out scientific research by reporting it here: >> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/

 

3.1 _ohio

[Turtle]

as much knowledge as has been gained from recording quakes & associated phenomena, geologists still can't predict earthquakes and say as much in no uncertain terms. here's just a smattering of unpredicted quakes from north america by way of examples. >

 

within a week in us:

2.3 virginia

3.5 new mexico

 

within a day in us:

4.8 southern texas

4.0 san francisco

 

what we do know is a good deal of the history of quakes & where the greatest dangers lie and how to minimize loss of life & limb. while i doubt san antonio is well prepared, san francisco is far better prepared for a large quake than they were in 1906. we know more big ones will hit, but not under what circumstances.

 

now consider this bit. the italians are actually charging geologists with manslaughter for not predicting the 6.3 they had a couple years back!! good grief. :doh:

 

 

Italy’s Troubling Earthquake Prosecutions @ new york times

 

You may be aware of the effort under way in Italy to convict six scientists and a public official for manslaughter for statements they made about the improbability of a big earthquake as low-level tremors unnerved citizens in the Abruzzo region of central Italy in late March 2009. On April 6, the medieval town of L’Aquila was devastated by a 6.3-magnitude earthquake.

 

One can only hope that a decision earlier this week to adjourn the trial until October 1 will give the prosecution time to reconsider the merits of what amounts to a medieval-style attack on science.

...

In considering the merits of this manslaughter trial, also consider reading a post from The Lede blog following the quake in which an Italian official, warning of poor enforcement of building standards, said this:

 

In California, an earthquake like this one would not have killed a single person.

 

The official? Franco Barberi, who led the country’s risks commission in 2009 and is now one of the criminal defendants.

 

How do you spell scapegoat?

[Turtle]

so, we've had a couple small quakes in missouri this week and while not particularly unusual they bear witness to one of the most dangerous quake zones in the continental US. the timing couldn't be better then for the release by usgs of an informational poster outlining the events of the new madrid quakes of 1811/12. (there is also a text .pdf with the info from the poster.)

 

one has only to look at this week's quakes in turkey to get some idea of what we can expect from a major quake in the new madrid zone. :lightning :rip:

as always, there is no bad time to review your earthquake preparedness plan.

 

>> How do I Prepare?

 

1.6 se missouri

1.3 se missouri

 

20 Cool Facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Commemorating the Bicentennial of the New Madrid Earthquake Sequence December 1811–February 1812

This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2–3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811–1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

[Qfwfq]

now consider this bit. the italians are actually charging geologists with manslaughter for not predicting the 6.3 they had a couple years back!! good grief. :doh:

Sadly true, but not as simple as meets the eye.

 

Firstly, I would call it "expecting too much from science" which is somewhat the opposite of "a medieval attack on science".

 

Second, about 30 citizens presented their case and it's only fair that the machine of justice should work according to legal procedure (and don't start talking about that without knowing the complicated system over here!). Prosecutors are not scientists (obviously) and judges must obtain expert counsel according to precise procedure for these things. Each party may then challenge it with an expert of their own trust.

 

Third, fourth, fifth & waaaay onward, the case itself is not as simple as that blog makes it look, I've seen a couple of local news items and I think Thomas H. Jordan puts it in reasonable terms and Dr. Mileti says reasonable things, as quoted in this English Language article. In mentioning the "local man who is not a scientist" they presumably mean one Gioacchino Giuliani who was a technician at a physics lab, he had stirred up an unwarranted degree of alarm.

 

In my take, if someone has alarmed the mob about a risk which is actually greater than usual, but still far from a high probability, it is a delicate task to calm folks down without them mistaking it for "Everything's perfectly fine." as distinct from "We really can't predict." and journalists usually don't help with that either. For that, neither does your average neighborhood politicin or bureacrat. Of course an angry mob will then turn against whoever they believe has deceived them.

Edited October 27, 2011 by Qfwfq
enhancing due credit

[Turtle]

...In my take, if someone has alarmed the mob about a risk which is actually greater than usual, but still far from a high probability, it is a delicate task to calm folks down without them mistaking it for "Everything's perfectly fine." as distinct from "We really can't predict." and journalists usually don't help with that either. For that, neither does your average neighborhood politicin or bureacrat. Of course an angry mob will then turn against whoever they believe has deceived them.

 

acknowledged all. the guy who predicted was using an increase in radon gas as a predictive measure; something not yet well established. we had an official geologist guy in california, one mr berkland, who predicted the loma prieta quake based on moon phases and missing animal reports in the papers; also things not well established (i.e. not supported by evidence)or accepted and so dismissed by colleagues. however, he was only fired & his comrades who dismissed him were not prosecuted for manslaughter. i concede that maybe if they had been in texas they would have been prosecuted for murder & executed. :omg: :lol:

 

intricasies in italy notwithstanding, you have to admit this just plain looks bad. :blink: burn the witch!!

 

anyway, while i'm here, a couple quakes today in n. america.

 

1.9 e. tennessee

 

2.2 arkansas (part of a swarm in recent weeks)

[Qfwfq]

No doubt it looks bad and there certainly wasn't a reason to prosecute Mr. Berkland; note that the radon guy is not the one being prosecuted over here, despite that his prediction had a boomerang effect, he's one of those who could be blamed more than the Grand Risks Commission but I would put more blame on dumb journalists and incompetent officials. Geez, Gelmini's tunnel caused a lot of hilarity but harmed no one.

[Turtle]

No doubt it looks bad and there certainly wasn't a reason to prosecute Mr. Berkland; note that the radon guy is not the one being prosecuted over here, despite that his prediction had a boomerang effect, he's one of those who could be blamed more than the Grand Risks Commission but I would put more blame on dumb journalists and incompetent officials. Geez, Gelmini's tunnel caused a lot of hilarity but harmed no one.

 

:thumbs_up roger. mr radon is your berkland and your defendants are berkland's colleagues in my metaphor. that their respective treatments & methods were different, right or wrong, was my point. i wouldn't prosecute berkland and no one did or suggested it that i am aware of. mock him modestly; heck yeah! hold it!!! i think i hear geese flying the wrong way. could be a big one. and worry not; my next trip to switzerland i plan to take the tunnel as i am perfectly satisfied with its safety. ;) :steering:

 

my earthquake prediction for today: we will have some earthquakes today. :P

[Qfwfq]

Early this morning, not far from here, magnitude 4.2 Richter, hardly any damage. Its epicenter was near the border between the Trento and Verona provinces, around a town called Avio. It was 6:13 CET and I felt it a few minutes later (some 80 km away). I was no longer fast asleep and I began to sense a slight lateral motion, crosswise to my bed, then heard the sound of a strain in the building just as faster oscillations came. I could feel it for a few seconds, with the faint sound of vibrations somewhere around. Aware of not being near the epicentre, I did not budge and when I got up I looked up national news for it.

 

i wouldn't prosecute berkland

No doubt, and I guess his prediction had no boomerang effect.

[Turtle]

Early this morning, not far from here, magnitude 4.2 Richter, hardly any damage. Its epicenter was near the border between the Trento and Verona provinces, around a town called Avio. It was 6:13 CET and I felt it a few minutes later (some 80 km away). I was no longer fast asleep and I began to sense a slight lateral motion, crosswise to my bed, then heard the sound of a strain in the building just as faster oscillations came. I could feel it for a few seconds, with the faint sound of vibrations somewhere around. Aware of not being near the epicentre, I did not budge and when I got up I looked up national news for it.

 

No doubt, and I guess his prediction had no boomerang effect.

 

very cool experience!!! usgs now has it as a 4.4

4.4 northern italy

by all means file a report. >> Did You Feel It? @ usgs while it's USgs, they are part of an international cooperative. such reports are quite valuable as effects at the surface can yield usefull data not apparent in the seismograms alone.

 

yeah; the only one apparently boomeranged was berkland himself in losing his official job, but he seems unaffected in his ongoing unilateral predictions.

[Qfwfq]

by all means file a report. >> Did You Feel It? @ usgs while it's USgs, they are part of an international cooperative.

Neat. Did that.

:)

[Turtle]

i've been watching the italy 4.4 area for aftershocks, but looks like it was a 1-off. activity in my immediate area is nill, but we had a pretty good banger in oklahoma last night & this morning. started with a 4.7 -:lightning :omg:- and then 7 good aftershocks so far. the epicenter is ~ 40 miles E of oklahoma city oklahoma & ~ 400 miles W of new madrid missouri.

 

worth mentioning again that if you have GoogleEarth there is a feature that displays current and historical quakes. to activate go to Layers, Gallery, Discovery Networks, and then check the Earthquakes box.

 

here's the low-down on the okies.

 

Earthquake List for Map Centered at 35°N, 96°W

____MAG UTC DATE-TIME _ LAT deg__ LON deg _ DEPTHkm LOCATION

MAP 3.6 2011/11/05 14:36:30 35.584 -96.789 4.9 4 km ( 2 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

MAP 3.4 2011/11/05 13:42:26 35.530 -96.766 5.0 9 km ( 5 mi) NW of Prague, OK

MAP 3.3 2011/11/05 11:24:15 35.521 -96.778 5.0 9 km ( 6 mi) WNW of Prague, OK

MAP 3.3 2011/11/05 09:12:11 35.591 -96.788 4.9 4 km ( 2 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

MAP 2.7 2011/11/05 07:50:42 35.559 -96.762 4.8 8 km ( 5 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

MAP 2.7 2011/11/05 07:44:34 35.488 -96.755 5.0 6 km ( 4 mi) W of Prague, OK

MAP 3.4 2011/11/05 07:27:20 35.566 -96.698 5.0 9 km ( 6 mi) N of Prague, OK

MAP 4.7 2011/11/05 07:12:45 35.553 -96.748 4.0 9 km ( 6 mi) SE of Sparks, OK ...

 

Oklahoma Earthquake 2011: Quake Rattles Area Stretching Into Texas, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri @ huffington post

OKLAHOMA CITY -- A moderate earthquake early Saturday in central Oklahoma knocked pictures off walls and woke people and pets as it shook an area that stretched into Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas.

...

[Turtle]

here's the low-down on the okies.

 

Earthquake List for Map Centered at 35°N, 96°W

____MAG UTC DATE-TIME _ LAT deg__ LON deg _ DEPTHkm LOCATION

MAP 3.6 2011/11/05 14:36:30 35.584 -96.789 4.9 4 km ( 2 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

MAP 3.4 2011/11/05 13:42:26 35.530 -96.766 5.0 9 km ( 5 mi) NW of Prague, OK

MAP 3.3 2011/11/05 11:24:15 35.521 -96.778 5.0 9 km ( 6 mi) WNW of Prague, OK

MAP 3.3 2011/11/05 09:12:11 35.591 -96.788 4.9 4 km ( 2 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

MAP 2.7 2011/11/05 07:50:42 35.559 -96.762 4.8 8 km ( 5 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

MAP 2.7 2011/11/05 07:44:34 35.488 -96.755 5.0 6 km ( 4 mi) W of Prague, OK

MAP 3.4 2011/11/05 07:27:20 35.566 -96.698 5.0 9 km ( 6 mi) N of Prague, OK

MAP 4.7 2011/11/05 07:12:45 35.553 -96.748 4.0 9 km ( 6 mi) SE of Sparks, OK ...

 

Oklahoma Earthquake 2011: Quake Rattles Area Stretching Into Texas, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri @ huffington post

OKLAHOMA CITY -- A moderate earthquake early Saturday in central Oklahoma knocked pictures off walls and woke people and pets as it shook an area that stretched into Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas.

...

 

WOW!! :omg: the episode above is no longer a shock-aftershock sequence, it is a swarm. this because they just had a 5.6 quake and that is larger than the initial 4.7 that started things off. if the 4.7 knocked pictures off the wall, then this one may have broken some windows. :lightning stay tuned, and if you felt it, please report it.

 

5.6 oklahoma

5.6 2011/11/06 03:53:10 35.599 -96.752 5.0 6 km ( 4 mi) E of Sparks, OK

[Turtle]

so 11 more quakes since my last post and all but one 3.0 or larger. got up early to listen to network news, but they seem more interested in kim kardashian and herman cain. :doh:

 

well, the bible-belters haven't wasted any time blaming the quakes on sin. :omg: good grief.

 

church news

...Jesus, of course, warned about a time earthquakes and troubles:

 

8 … And there will be earthquakes in various places, and there will be…troubles. These are the beginnings of sorrows. (Mark 13:8)

 

We may be at this prophetic point as all the earthquakes and other problems that have happened in the past year or so could be considered as “troubles.”...

 

many of the sinner online news sources i have checked don't get the facts much better and report no damage and mis-state the total number of quakes, but afterall the new princess may be pregnant and what could be more important than that. no word yet that any geologists have been charged with criminal negligence for not predicting the quakes, but there's plenty of time for that. :hammer:

i found one source however that is reporting some of the damage, so i'll go with that.

 

USGS upgrades latest earthquake to 5.6; strongest on record in Oklahoma @ KJRH News, Tulsa

 

...

Lincoln County Emergency Management is reporting significant damage in the southern parts of the county. In some cases chimneys have collapsed through the roofs of homes. Air conditioning ducts collapsed through the ceiling at the Prague library.

 

Several roadways have buckled, including Highway 62 near County Road 3470 and other county roads.

 

There has been no word on any injuries reported.

 

USGS is reporting that tremors were felt in most of Oklahoma as well as eastern and central Kansas, most of Missouri and Arkansas, north Texas and southeast Nebraska. ...

 

 

usgs oklahoma quake list, 11/06/11

3.2 2011/11/06 11:20:23 35.525 -96.883 5.0 3 km ( 2 mi) NNE of Meeker, OK

3.0 2011/11/06 11:16:20 35.523 -96.844 4.9 6 km ( 3 mi) ENE of Meeker, OK

3.4 2011/11/06 11:03:52 35.539 -96.825 5.0 8 km ( 5 mi) S of Sparks, OK

3.9 2011/11/06 10:52:35 35.567 -96.797 5.0 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Sparks, OK

4.0 2011/11/06 09:39:57 35.506 -96.865 5.0 3 km ( 2 mi) ENE of Meeker, OK

3.4 2011/11/06 09:22:04 35.585 -96.823 5.0 3 km ( 2 mi) S of Sparks, OK

2.7 2011/11/06 08:14:12 35.474 -96.794 5.0 7 km ( 4 mi) NNE of Johnson, OK

3.2 2011/11/06 07:32:40 35.544 -96.901 4.9 5 km ( 3 mi) N of Meeker, OK

3.8 2011/11/06 06:31:10 35.559 -96.874 5.0 7 km ( 4 mi) NNE of Meeker, OK

3.0 2011/11/06 04:54:00 35.540 -96.687 5.0 6 km ( 4 mi) N of Prague, OK

3.6 2011/11/06 04:03:41 35.554 -96.760 5.0 8 km ( 5 mi) SE of Sparks, OK

[Deepwater6]

Hope this wasn't covered already I only went about a few pages in the thread. I saw an article about people in Europe Scotland (I think). They were opposing fracking over there. not only for well contamination, but also for causing small quakes. I live on the fringes on the Marcellus shale reserve. Drilling has just started to go berzerk. Not long after we had the East coast quake. Any scientific evidence of a connection?

[Turtle]

Hope this wasn't covered already I only went about a few pages in the thread. I saw an article about people in Europe Scotland (I think). They were opposing fracking over there. not only for well contamination, but also for causing small quakes. I live on the fringes on the Marcellus shale reserve. Drilling has just started to go berzerk. Not long after we had the East coast quake. Any scientific evidence of a connection?

 

the frackers deny that their activity causes quakes, but the evidence to the contrary is mounting. drill baby drill! :doh:

 

Shale Shocked: “Highly Probable” Fracking Caused U.K. Earthquakes, and It’s Linked to Oklahoma Temblors

...Triggered earthquakes have also been tied to the long-standing American practice of injecting wastewater into wells. However, most geologists doubt that fracturing can muster similar seismic activity.That is exactly what the Oklahoma seismologist who prepared the study, Austin Holland, told the resident reporting the quakes, who mentioned that fracturing had begun the day before at a nearby well. Earthquakes are typically triggered by stresses more prolonged than those found in fracturing, a reason it is generally held in the geology business to cause seismic events of magnitudes less than zero.

 

“These were just normal naturally occuring earthquakes,” Holland told the resident.

 

But out of due diligence, Holland began examining the suite of almost 50 seismic events that followed the 2.8-magnitude quake. The majority of the microquakes struck within 3.5 kilometers of the fracturing well, Picket Unit B 4-18. The quakes were shallow and fit well in time and space with the start of fracturing in the nearby well. The geophysical model fit, too.

 

“The more and more we looked at it, it looked like it was a correlation,” Holland said. ...

 

[Turtle]

another quake in oklahoma and a follow up on the environmental damage caused by fracking in pennsylvania.

 

usgs

3.9 2011/11/06 15:07:05 35.535 -96.909 5.0 4 km ( 3 mi) NNW of Meeker, OK

 

Hydraulic Fracturing for Natural Gas Pollutes Water Wells

 

A new study indicates that fracturing the Marcellus Shale for natural gas is contaminating private drinking water wells

 

Drilling for natural gas is booming in Pennsylvania—thanks to fracturing shale rock with a water and chemical cocktail paired with the ability to drill in any direction. Despite homeowner complaints, however, research on how such hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is impacting local water wells has not kept pace. Now a new study that sampled water from 60 such wells has found evidence for natural gas–contamination in those within a kilometer of a new natural gas well.

 

"Methane concentrations in drinking water were much higher if the homeowner was near an active gas well," explains environmental scientist Robert Jackson of Duke University, who led the study published online May 9 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "We wanted to try and separate fact from emotion." ...

[CraigD]

Hydraulic Fracturing for Natural Gas Pollutes Water Wells

Water supply pollution is, IMHO, the most immediately serious detrimental effect of fracking.

 

The problem, and its most obvious solution, is not much different from that arising from some other troublesome fuel extraction techniques, such as mountaintop removal coal mining: previous safe/healthy human use water is being made unsafe/healthy, so needs to be made safe/healthy again, Ideally before its made unsafe. The stupid tragedy of this is that doing so isn’t technically or cost prohibitive. Individual home and small community wells need only be replaced with piped water supply systems, or in cases where homes are widely spaced, water truck-delivered cisterns. The latter is what some people I know whos water was ruined by MTRM have done, at their own expense.

 

It seems to me that political vitriol has prevented addressing these problems as what they are – technical resource management challenges. Solutions don’t require new technology or government and business practices. Historically, most places originally got their water from wells, springs, and streams, but due to increased population density and water pollution, replaced these supplies with piped municipal systems. Compared to, say, the 1908-1913 LA Aqueduct project, present day solutions to water supply pollution due to fuel extraction appear technically trivial.

 

Energy companies and government need to be compelled to address water supply quality with at least the same competence they did in the early 20th century US.