Earthquakes

[Buffy]

this was written for the bay area, but it applies every-where earthquakes can occur...which is everywhere.

I'll bet a cookie against you Mr.T, but THANK YOU for the reminder that we should always ACT as if there's gonna be a big one tomorrow!

 

If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience, :bouquet:

Buffy

[Turtle]

I'll bet a cookie against you Mr.T, but THANK YOU for the reminder that we should always ACT as if there's gonna be a big one tomorrow!

 

If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience,

Buffy

 

:shrug: i looooove cookies!!! well, not tracking cookies. but chewy oatmeal raisin...i looooove them.

 

speaking of history, i revisit the topic of my second post to this thread.

 

Are You Earthquake Sensitive???

 

There have always been, and will always be, earthquakes. Scientists tell us that you can't predict an earthquake or volcanic eruption, but that's no longer true. Through the efforts of Charlotte King who pioneered Biological Earthquake Prediction, and Chris Dodge of the US Library of Congress, a volunteer research project was born - aptly named "Project Migraine." The focus of this project was to prove, beyond coincidence, that earthquakes and volcanic eruptions could be forecast, prospective of the event, giving time, magnitude, location and probability.

 

It was later discovered that there may be, in addition to Charlotte,

hundreds, and even thousands of other people around the world who may be able to "feel and hear" earthquake and volcanic eruptions before they actually take place.

...

Testing & References

 

1. Institute of Applied Physiology and medicine Hybaric

Decompression Chamber Seattle Washington....Dr Michael Powell Phd.

 

2. US Bureau of Standards.. Magnetic Testing Labs.. Dr. Zimmerman.

 

3. United States Environmental Protection Agency... Reno Nv..Ric Tell.

 

4. Oregon Health Sciences Dept. of Neurology, Portland ...Dr. Frank Yatsu.

 

5. Oregon State School for the Deaf.. Dr. Harlin Conkey.

 

6. Western Thermographic Western Labs, Modesto California..

 

7. Oregon State University...Corvallis Oregon

Department of Engineering..Drs' Stone and Jensen.

 

8. Project Migraine...Volunteer Joint Project of Chris Dodge

U.S.Library of Congress and Charlotte King, Pioneer of

Research into Biological Earthquake Prediction... Started on March 27, 1981.

 

9. Sacramento State University.. Anochoic Chamber Test,

Department of Electrical Engineering.

 

10. USGS Cal tech in Pasadena California.. L.Curtis Contact ...

Charlotte King Effect

 

And therefore as a stranger give it welcome.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,

Than are dreamt of in your philosophy. :bouquet:

[Turtle]

i predict another major quake or quakes in the next few days on account of some pains i'm having similar to ones i had a few days before the last round of biggies. :) no; i have no idea where. yes; my prediction is not scientifically supported. :) :) who ya gonna call? :) :) ...

 

I'll bet a cookie against you Mr.T, but THANK YOU for the reminder that we should always ACT as if there's gonna be a big one tomorrow! :)

 

suppose it's a big one that isn't noticeable? suppose it has-happened/is-happening now, but lasting days or weeks? suppose i feel/felt a slow quake, or episodic-tremor-& slip event to use the current geologic vernacular?

 

 

Geodynamics - Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS)

(ETS) is the name given to a process that occurs deep below the Earth's surface, along faults that form the boundaries of tectonic plates. It involves repeated episodes of slow sliding, one plate over the other, of a few centimetres over a period of several weeks, accompanied by energetic seismic noise, called tremor. Tremor is distinctly different from the seismic signals generated by earthquakes. ...

 

Geodynamics - Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS)

...Vancouver Island, the episodes of deep slip are accompanied by seismic tremors that are recorded by a network of seismographs previously established to measure earthquakes. Seismic data reveal that tremors persist, like background chatter, for the duration of the ETS events. ...

 

now notice the small, but rhythmic traces on these recent local seismograms. :) from several years of watching traces & reading usgs reports, i see the signal of an ETS here. :) :) :)

april 3:

mt baker:

PNSN Webicorder Display

mt adams:

PNSN Webicorder Display

mt hood:

PNSN Webicorder Display

cedar flats (station nearest me):

PNSN Webicorder Display

[Buffy]

suppose it's a big one that isn't noticeable? suppose it has-happened/is-happening now, but lasting days or weeks? suppose i feel/felt a slow quake, or episodic-tremor-& slip event to use the current geologic vernacular?

No moving the goal posts, dear...and besides you said "bay area"... :Whistle: :shrug:

 

Demonstrate to them our skill, :thumbs_up

Buffy

[Buffy]

Oh, *there* you go! Only about 600 miles off on the location part of the prediction though! :Whistle: :shrug:

 

AahEverybody, get on the floor, let's dance! :thumbs_up

Buffy

[Turtle]

Oh, *there* you go! Only about 600 miles off on the location part of the prediction though! :Whistle: :cheer:

 

AahEverybody, get on the floor, let's dance! :shrug:

Buffy

 

just comin' for my cookies. :lol: oatmeal, hold the raisins & nuts please. :( actually, i said i didn't know the location in my prediction. make that 3 cookies. :cookie: :D ;)

 

i predict another major quake or quakes in the next few days on account of some pains i'm having similar to ones i had a few days before the last round of biggies. :eek2: no; i have no idea where. yes; my prediction is not scientifically supported. :thumbs_up :eek: who ya gonna call? :shrug: :hyper:

...

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by Turtle

suppose it's a big one that isn't noticeable? suppose it has-happened/is-happening now, but lasting days or weeks? suppose i feel/felt a slow quake, or episodic-tremor-& slip event to use the current geologic vernacular?

No moving the goal posts, dear...and besides you said "bay area"... :rolleyes: :cheer:

 

Demonstrate to them our skill, :phones:

Buffy

 

okaly dokaly. to clarify the "bay area" thingy, the reference i gave was about earthquake preparedness & not part of my prediction. it just so happened that the preparedness document was prepared for the bay area, but it applies anywhere.

 

now as to the ETS, Episodic Tremor & Slip speculation on my part, it seems i nailed that one too. there is indeed currently an ETS event going on here. which is not to say it has a direct correlation to the baja quake inasmuch as the ETS seems to be charactheristic of a subduction zone, but nonetheless whether the ETS here somehow ripened the chances for the baja shock/aftershock sequence is a legitimate & interesting question. this current event was not expected until the summer...surprise!! :xparty: :hyper:

 

but, on to the big boys. (boldenation mine.) :hyper:

 

Deep Tremor Array Studies, On going observations

Blog for ETS of Summer, 2010

Deep Tremor News: Mar, 2010 - .... (until it is over)

A continuation of, (Array of Array expirement) and Cascadia Arrays For EarthScope (CAFE) -

 

We will update this page with infomration, observations and studies of Cascadia deep tremor expected during the summer of 2010. The AofA experiement is a follow up to the CAFE experiement of the previous few years that explicitly uses up to eight arrays of 20-40 seismometers each in the northern Olympic Peninsula to study the ETS tremor as it moves under this region.

News will be posted on this page (latest at the top) and references to figures from time to time.

 

There are nine installed arrays of 10 continuous short-period stations each and seven temporary broad-band stations in operations from summer of 2009 through at least fall of 2010.

 

 

NEWS (latest at the top)

Mar 29, 2010 - Tremor is back in the southern Vancouver Island area. For the past four days there has been increasing amounts of tremor just north-west of PGC. ...

 

edit: more info. >>

 

http://www.geodesy.cwu.edu/instruments/tilt/explanation_ETS.html

...Like any ordinary earthquake, an ETS has a measure of energy released during the event. This is calculated as moment magnitude (Mw). Cascadia ETS events average 6.7Mw (almost equivalent to the 2001 6.8Mw Nisqually Earthquake). This would represent around 2-3cm of slip across the plates at depth if measured ETS surface deformations are in fact caused by integrated slips at depth and tremor is simply the artifact of each individual slip of two portions of lithospheric plates in this subduction zone (Szeliga et al. 2008). ...

[Turtle]

got that pain again; the one that prompts me to predict a quake. :eek_big: :hyper: so, in the next few days a large quake, 6.9+, somewhere along the pacific ring of fire in the Americas. :coffee_n_pc: i went checking on the ETS situation a bit ago & find that activity is up the past few days. :shrug: who we gonna call?

/forums/images/smilies/banana_sign.gif

 

Cascadia ETS - Average Amplitude of Seismic Signals

 

[Turtle]

got that pain again; the one that prompts me to predict a quake. :doh: :hyper: so, in the next few days a large quake, 6.9+, somewhere along the pacific ring of fire in the Americas.

 

okaly dokaly thens, time for updateage & qualificationage. (no, i'm not moving the goalposts :); i'm painting them :). ;) :hyper:)

 

updateage:

the closest thing we had to my prediction was a 6.5 in brazil near the peruvian border. >>Magnitude 6.5 - ACRE, BRAZIL

miss on the mag, near miss on the loc :rant: :hyper:

 

qualificationage:

"next few days" = 1 to 6 days. laypeople would say "less than a week". :hyper: this gives me some time then for hits still. :eek2: :D

 

if nothing comes in by friday, i will recallibrate my sensors and wait for the next notice.

/forums/images/smilies/banana_sign.gif

[dduckwessel]

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html

 

Is this normal earthquake activity?

[Turtle]

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html

 

Is this normal earthquake activity?

 

yup ; since all earthquake activity is normal, and you gave specific examples of earthquake activity, then it follows they must be normal. :lol:

 

the problem in putting 100 year & longer quakes & such into the "normal" is the lack of seismic data. while we can infer the occurance(s) of some older quakes by their geologic effects & historical accounts, there is no telling about precursor smaller quakes or the aftershocks or details over wider areas than there are observable effects.

 

anyway, i don't mind hearing an event such as the virginia quake referred to as "unusual" as long as it's understood in the proper context. just so, here's an article on a bit of "unusual" quake activity that i have been following for a year or so at the usgs source you give duck. (i have a few posts in this thread about it.) sometimes even lots of data hardly clears things up. i dare say it is getting little more than regional coverage in the popular "press".

 

oklahoma quake swarm @ google

 

Oklahoma Earthquake Swarm: Lots Of Data, But Few Answers

 

Norman, OK -- Researchers at the Oklahoma Geological Survey have been cataloguing earthquakes in the state for more than 100 years, but never have they had so many to catalogue or been so baffled as to their underlying cause.

 

"We have this really high quality data set," remarked research seismologist Austin Holland, "and there's no clear answer popping out as to what's going on."

 

Holland presented his data, in poster form, at the Seismological Society of America's annual conference in Memphis in late April.

From January 2010 through March 2011, Holland says there were 850 earthquakes, just in Oklahoma County.

...

[Turtle]

it is normal to have aftershocks following unusual quakes. :omg: :lol: anyway, we just today in the last few hours had 2 aftershocks within an hour of one-another. a 2.2 aftershock in virginia and a 2.7 aftershock in the colorado sequence. duck's list missed the 2.2 because the cut-off for that particular list is 2.5. duck & cover!!! :lightning :D

 

ps worth mentioning again that a shock/aftershock sequence is characterized by an initial quake followed by a series of smaller quakes, while a swarm is characterized by an initial quake followed by a sequence that includes quakes as large or larger than the initial.

[dduckwessel]

'duck and cover'...:lol:

 

 

It looks to me like VANUATU and CENTRAL CALIFORNIA may have swarms as well?

 

I wonder if swarms can be characterized as being something like a 'domino effect' (not in a single line of course but occuring where there are the greatest weaknesses in the fault line but where one sets off the other).

[Turtle]

'duck and cover'...:lol:

 

 

It looks to me like VANUATU and CENTRAL CALIFORNIA may have swarms as well?

 

I wonder if swarms can be characterized as being something like a 'domino effect' (not in a single line of course but occuring where there are the greatest weaknesses in the fault line but where one sets off the other).

 

yeah, they have swarms. however those 2 areas, unlike oklahoma or virginia, are active quake zones on or near plate boundries where some 95% of all quakes occur. specifying a swarm amongst the rucus would be up to particular geologists i imagine; i don't know the particular criteria offhand.

 

the idea that one quake causes other distant quakes is slowly receiving some investigation, but it is very tentative with little evidence and no proposed mechanism. i can't find an article just now, but i think i posted on it earlier in this thread.

[Turtle]

'duck and cover'...:lol:

...

I wonder if swarms can be characterized as being something like a 'domino effect' (not in a single line of course but occuring where there are the greatest weaknesses in the fault line but where one sets off the other).

 

the idea that one quake causes other distant quakes is slowly receiving some investigation, but it is very tentative with little evidence and no proposed mechanism. i can't find an article just now, but i think i posted on it earlier in this thread.

 

i did some searching & found my reference to "domino effect" quakes in post #123. it seems the link i gave there is gone so i searched physorg.com for "supershear quakes" and found this article from 2008. >

 

big quakes spark jolts worldwide

 

This map of the world shows seismic stations that detected more than twice the normal number of small, nearby earthquakes after the passage of what are known as "surface waves" from major quakes that were centered hundreds to thousands of miles away and occurred from 1992 through 2006. A new study co-authored by University of Utah seismologist Kris Pankow found that at least 12 of the 15 major earthquakes (greater than magnitude-7) during 1992-2006 triggered small quakes in distant parts of the world. Scientists once believed big quakes could not trigger distant tremors. Credit: Aaron Velasco, University of Texas at El Paso

...

When an earthquake begins, energy is released in the form of shock waves that move through the ground. The first waves are called P or pressure waves, which move at high speed with an up-and-down motion. The next waves are S or shear waves. These move from side to side, causing much damage from an earthquake. The next waves are two types of surface waves: Love waves move in a shearing fashion, followed by Rayleigh waves, which have a rolling motion.

 

Pankow and colleagues showed that magnitude-4 or smaller seismic events often are triggered when either Love or Rayleigh waves from a major quake pass a given point.

...

 

ps just had a 2.1 aftershock in virginia within a couple hours of this post. >> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/se083111a.php

[dduckwessel]

i did some searching & found my reference to "domino effect" quakes in post #123. it seems the link i gave there is gone so i searched physorg.com for "supershear quakes" and found this article from 2008. >

 

I was thinking more of a domino effect in the immediate or surrounding area of a quake. I had no idea it might encompass a much greater distance!

[Turtle]

i did some searching & found my reference to "domino effect" quakes in post #123. it seems the link i gave there is gone so i searched physorg.com for "supershear quakes" and found this article from 2008. >

 

big quakes spark jolts worldwide

 

 

I was thinking more of a domino effect in the immediate or surrounding area of a quake. I had no idea it might encompass a much greater distance!

 

so yes, you could characterize "swarm" or "shock/aftershock" as a domino effect. however, it is not an adequate/workable model because nothing is falling at the center or immediate surrounds of an earthquake. here's a page with some basic info on earthquake mechanics. >> the science of earthquakes @usgs

 

ps just had today an "unusual" quake in alabama. >> mag 2.1 alabama