Thanks for that, now I too have a comment, a rather long one because now I am being adversely affected, not by the virus directly, but by the draconian measures being employed in an failed effort to control it.
I am not ignoring anything. What I am doing is quoting exactly what Dr Fauci has written in the New England Journal of Medicine. He is listed as the main author so these are his words: “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza”
His words, not mine.
There are a lot of numbers being tossed around that are frightening a lot of people and all I am trying to do is put this in perspective. Please tell me what part of the following you disagree with or you think is wrong.
Seasonal influenza takes about 36,000 lives in the USA every year. According to Dr Fauci, those fatalities are 0.1% of the number of cases. That means there are 36 million cases of the flu in the USA during a single year. If those cases were spread out evenly throughout the year, that works out to 3 million cases every month. However, the flu season peaks between December and February, and March is usually a bad month too. Right now, this month, there can be 4 or 5 million people with the flu and of that amount, at least 4,500 will die, and there will be many more who require hospitalization. The seasonal flu is a serious problem, but nobody is even mentioning it!
Meanwhile, there are news anchors on every network, 24 hours a day, broadcasting a running tally of cases and deaths due to Covid-19, in the most somber doomsday tone that they can muster.
So read these words in the most somber doomsday manner you can muster: Right now, there are about 100,000 confirmed cases and 1,500 deaths in the USA attributed to Covid-19.
How is it that the hospitals are facing an overload at the present time from this? How is it the hospitals handle 4,500 dead, this month alone, from the flu and also handle the many more who need hospitalization, without a crisis?
Of that 100,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, some 95%, or more will have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. So around 5,000 cases may require hospitalization. Not all of those will be severe enough to require to be intubated and put on a ventilator. Obviously, some will be very severe as 1,500 have died, but some of those people who go to the hospital could recover just as well by staying home. During a pandemic, the hospital is the last place that I would go to unless I was really in bad shape.
It looks to me that this Covid flu is at most, doubling the load that the hospitals face every year from seasonal flu. Yes, that makes it tough going but it isn’t a doomsday scenario.
On that death rate, I see the doom and gloom talking heads saying it is 1.5% That is because they are doing a simple-minded calculation of 1,500 deaths/100,000 confirmed cases. That is fake math!
We know the number of cases that are out there and unaccounted for is many times more than the number that have been confirmed. We know this because most of the confirmed cases are mild or asymptomatic. This thing did not enter the US with some “patient zero” from which it spread everywhere. It entered all over, in New York, New Orleans, California, and other places, with many “patient zeroes”.
Using some of that fake math, with an R0 of 2.2, one case can multiply to 2,655 cases in 10 days (2.2^10) in 20 days the number is 705,000. You can do the math yourself. Even though it is fake math, when you consider there were many patient zeroes, it is almost certainly a very low estimate of where we are now. It is very possible 50% of the US population is already infected!
This means that the extreme measures of locking everyone down are too late to have any real effect. The curve will slow due to herd immunity, not because we are all hiding in our homes.
Very soon, the scary numbers will start to come down. In the end, we may lose 20,000 or even 40,000 lives in total to this virus, in the USA alone. That is nothing to be taken lightly, but it is in line with what Dr Fauci wrote: “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza” and that happens every year!
The strange thing is, he writes that in the most respected medical journal but he has never once said anything even remotely similar in public. In public, he has spoken of “millions” dying in the USA alone.
I see what is happening in Italy and Spain and elsewhere and it does depress me.
What gives me hope is the Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve. That can’t happen soon enough.
I know this is very long but I need to add a quick note about the economy. Some have said this is a binary choice between saving lives or saving the economy. The economy is not some abstract thing that can be shut down and destroyed without also destroying millions of lives. Anything we do to flatten that curve has to be measured against the damage that will be caused to the economy and the lives of people who depend on it. It isn’t a binary choice, like the trolly problem. There are many lives laying across both tracks.
You may think I’m wrong, and that’s fair, but you should hope that I am right!