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I still think all this is stupid for a virus with a R0 of 3.8, it would be like shutting down everything for a Earthquake that has a magnitude of like 6, at its current rate it is only going to infect like ‭1,600,000‬ people in a year. The flu infects 45 million people every year.

 That's just in the US. The seasonal flu worldwide infects about one billion people, (nobody knows the exact number) with 5 million serious illnesses and kills over 600,000.

 

It also affects cattle and horses and other animals.

 

Why is the world in such a panic over this particular corona virus?

 

We have experience with these type of virus and several vaccines are already being developed.

 

This is mass insanity driven by the dishonest media

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But please, don't .  City people always bring their troubles with them and the countryside vanishes.  First they complain about the dusty and muddy roads and demand pavement, then they complain about

Ocean, this is kinda wrong to blame on chinese, it could have happened anywhere and anytime. Let me explain by copy-pasting a reply of a friend of mine to a fb-petition asking to ban live animal marke

While I agree that we are all going to be infected at some time or other, I don't agree with your statement that there is a 3% mortality rate average over the entire population. There is no way that a

Posted (edited)

 That's just in the US. The seasonal flu worldwide infects about one billion people, (nobody knows the exact number) with 5 million serious illnesses and kills over 600,000.

 

It also affects cattle and horses and other animals.

 

Why is the world in such a panic over this particular corona virus?

 

We have experience with these type of virus and several vaccines are already being developed.

 

This is mass insanity driven by the dishonest media

I agree Ocean, that's why the title of this post is Coronavirus is fake news, I guess it shows the power of the media in this world.

 

goebbelsquote.jpg

Edited by VictorMedvil
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Statistical blips! People have to die at some stage in their lives. Most people dont want to be one of the reasons for the statistical blip.

 

Its mainly the elderly dying, would you have the same opinion if it was the young, or those at the peak of their careers dying. 

 

 

 

No, I would not have the same opinion. But the reality is that it IS by far mostly the very elderly dying. That is a fact of life and much easier to accept than seeing young people dying. Again, as far as I know, nobody under the age of 30 has died from this, but there could have been one or two so don't bother looking for an exception to show me wrong.

 

 

A Delay in actions of 10 days with this virus can see it spread alarming, as we are witnessing now in America. Trumps closing down flights might have been a bit slow, and more of a knee jerk against the Chinese or the Europeans, who he sees as a threat apparently for various reasons. 

 

Is Trump fit to lead America in this crisis?  :innocent:  or would some else be more suitable to lead America through this crisis  :sherlock:  Will martial law ever be imposed in America?   :edevil:

 

 

Why do you call it a delay? This is an action that has never been taken before by any president. Ten days to make sure what is happening and then take such action is extremely fast, in my opinion.

 

It would be nice to have someone better but Trump is what we have so we should support him, not try to undermine him.

 

We are not far from martial law now in New York and California and a couple other States.

 

Just my opinion, of course.

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Thanks for that feedback.

 

My attention was drawn in particular to the following paragraphs:

 

"In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season, influenza viruses were detected in 18% of the specimens, while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise"

 

"If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams"

 

"Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity"

 

So, it seems to me the main thing we need to do is not overwhelm the health care system. We can do that by staying home when we feel sick and not running to the hospital, taking a bed away from someone who really needs it. Social distancing is important, as well as tried-and-true common-sense hygiene. Confining people to their homes may do more harm than good and people can only take so much government pushing them around. If riots break out, and that is a possibility, we are all in big trouble.

Yes this is the key point and this is in fact what all the measures now being taken are designed to achieve, I think. Slow the thing down to a dribble of severe cases that the health systems can manage. To avoid what's happening in Italy in other words.

 

In the UK, where Bozo has not been quite as slow off the mark as Trump (not being fixated on trying to keep the stock market up, rather than attending to the impending health crisis), but still pretty to slow to grasp it, the government is now buying up a lot of beds in the private hospitals we have here,  to supplement the NHS.  But we are still woefully short of test kits, PPE for the NHS front line staff, and ventilators. There is now an industrial group starting a crash programme to make ventilators domestically, since we import most of them at the moment and the imports have dried up. And people. Retired doctors are being called back into service. There has even been a suggestion to get grounded aircrew to help with some of the hospital functions. Real wartime stuff. Northwick Park hospital, near Harrow in London has already declared an emergency, such that they are now turning A&E cases away and diverting them elsewhere.

 

So, while I'm sure this guy has a valid point about overall mortality and so on, the pressure on the health system is not just a forecast, it has arrived. If he's right, that must mean the actual infection rate is far greater than one would guess from the "confirmed' cases - which as I say feels right to me, from my own anecdotal experience of who I know that has got it.     

Edited by exchemist
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No, I would not have the same opinion. But the reality is that it IS by far mostly the very elderly dying. That is a fact of life and much easier to accept than seeing young people dying. Again, as far as I know, nobody under the age of 30 has died from this, but there could have been one or two so don't bother looking for an exception to show me wrong.

 

 

 

Why do you call it a delay? This is an action that has never been taken before by any president. Ten days to make sure what is happening and then take such action is extremely fast, in my opinion.

 

It would be nice to have someone better but Trump is what we have so we should support him, not try to undermine him.

 

We are not far from martial law now in New York and California and a couple other States.

 

Just my opinion, of course.

 

Delay is because he saw how fast it spread in China. By then he was still spouting about it being a democratic plot. But like you say we should not keep putting a good man someone down, even if you think they are idiots. A leader should be someone whom the country respects, I am pretty sure from conversations with my American friends he is not respected by all.

 

Edit 

 

 That's just in the US. The seasonal flu worldwide infects about one billion people, (nobody knows the exact number) with 5 million serious illnesses and kills over 600,000.

 

It also affects cattle and horses and other animals.

 

Why is the world in such a panic over this particular corona virus?

 

We have experience with these type of virus and several vaccines are already being developed.

 

This is mass insanity driven by the dishonest media

 

New York has more than 10000 confirmed infections, I am not sure about California, except in California, which was mentioned on the news last night, there are something like 5000000 elderley and 7000000 with serious illnesses. If these get Corona virus your death figures in the millions might easily become realistic, if serious measures are not taken. 

 That's just in the US. The seasonal flu worldwide infects about one billion people, (nobody knows the exact number) with 5 million serious illnesses and kills over 600,000.

 

It also affects cattle and horses and other animals.

 

Why is the world in such a panic over this particular corona virus?

 

We have experience with these type of virus and several vaccines are already being developed.

 

This is mass insanity driven by the dishonest media

 

Edited by Flummoxed
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On a side note this Coronavirus is good for population control, we need a few more plagues out there to remove those that just soak up resources.

 

You are always looking on the bright side of disasters, every cloud has a silver lining. I just dont think this is the silver lining a lot of people might be looking for. 

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"respected by all" is a very high bar.

 

I can't think of anyone who ever lived who met that standard. Can you?

 

A lifetime of wasted votes, resulting in a very pessimistic view of politicians of all parties.

 

Politicians alive how about Angela Merkel who seems to be well respected.

Politicians dead how about Ghandi, or perhaps Mandela, 

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A lifetime of wasted votes, resulting in a very pessimistic view of politicians of all parties.

 

Politicians alive how about Angela Merkel who seems to be well respected.

Politicians dead how about Ghandi, or perhaps Mandela, 

It's not like any of that matters, all that matters is that you can get people to "Believe" you are the right choice. All politics is a (Well Funded Propaganda Machine) + (Popularity Prom King or Queen) = (Elected Official). I mean it goes back to the axiom that all politicians lie their *** off to get elected, it doesn't matter if its true or not only that the people "Believe" its true. That's why Trump hates the "Fake News" because it hurts the people's "Belief" that he was a good president or leader which is just a "Propaganda Machine" owned by 6 different corporations. This entire coronavirus situation is being created by the "Fake News" for some political agenda, you know it is, but what they may not realize is this bullshit costs people money, if people were wise they would slap the "Fake News" with a bill for the cost of this Fake Coronavirus crisis, that would straighten them up just fine them for like 5 trillion dollars or whatever this has cost the government thus far. If people really thought about it these "Fake News" people would be shot in the streets.

 

propaganda-quote-2-picture-quote-1.jpg

Edited by VictorMedvil
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A lifetime of wasted votes, resulting in a very pessimistic view of politicians of all parties.

 

Politicians alive how about Angela Merkel who seems to be well respected.

Politicians dead how about Ghandi, or perhaps Mandela, 

 

 

You are moving the goal posts from "respected by all" to "well respected"

 

I notice you do that a lot.

 

For example, you went from being all “OMG, they shut things down so now I can’t get my contract signed because ONE tourist has it!" to “Millions will die unless drastic measures are taken!" in the space of two days.

 

Anyway, this isn't about Trump. This is a global problem that started in China, remember?

 

My position hasn't changed one bit. When this is over we will find that the number of deaths from this virus will be down in the noise when compared to the number that die every year from all sorts of respiratory diseases, and when you add in the number that die every year from TB (also a respiratory illness) and malaria, this isn't of any great significance. 

 

The false fear being generated and fanned by the irresponsible media is far worse than the virus itself.

 

People need to get a grip.

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You are moving the goal posts from "respected by all" to "well respected"

 

I notice you do that a lot.

 

 

Here is some real news for you 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly-nwletter

DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc2004973

 

It wasnt OMG it was oh **** **** ****, which is different. Perhaps you dont get English humour.

 

Do you have a problem with people apparently changing their minds?

 

Edit changing the subject again here is a useful link on the number of the people infected worldwide. 

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

It would be useful to have information on the number of people recovered worldwide, and the time it takes to recover. 

It might also be useful to publish death rates against age group, and level of health. 

 

Edit this is a website publishing the above information for Portugal, I guess other governments will produce similar information https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/

Edited by Flummoxed
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Ocean, this part of your article (also highlighted by you in a further article), almost had me convinced:

 

f the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity"


Where this argument breaks down is that it depends not on overwhelmed or not. It depends on overwhelmed by HOW MUCH.

No flattening and little overwhelmed (= health system survives) might be better because beds needed for other things than corona 1 month in the future would be available.

No flattening and VERY overwhelmed (most nurses and doctors either infected and not working or dead-->health system breaks down) beds needed for other things than corona 1 month in the future would not be available (physically yes but no staff to man it). And this results that both during corona peak and after more people die. Maaaany more because all the non-corona stuff is also still happening.

I just would not want to gamble on this. Maybe all is hyped and it would never go so bad, but no1 says it is impossible or very unlikely.

Also WHO, does not seem to me an alarmist organisation. They do not come out with such news unless it is potentially (and with big likelihood) hardcore. Last time they were everywhere on the news was Ebola in West-Africa.

And to all the bedroom statisticians, "flu kills XXX per year, so what?". Well, did the flu ever kill 800 people in 1 country in one day? Or 569 in a day region <50km*50km (lombardy). That is the scary part.

 










 
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A Web site on the world stats for corona virus, recovered, dead, infection rates, and numbers infected https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Edit Based on a selection of the Italian death rate "For example, based on 1625 COVID-19 deaths in Italy (reported as 0.25% aged 30-39 years, 0.62% aged 40-49 years, 2.65% aged 50-59 years, 8.55% aged 60-69 years, 35.57% aged 70-79 years, 42.71% aged 80-89 years and 9.6% aged 90+ years), and considering the age-distribution of the Italian population, the COVID-19 death-rate per million of population appears to be 4 times higher at 50-59 years than at 40-49 years; 19 times higher at 60-69 years; 105 times higher per million of population at 70-79 years than at 40-49 years; and around 210 times higher per million of population at 80+ years than at 40-49 years." https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-comparisons-of-uk-and-italy-death-rates-from-covid-19/

 

Pick your age range and you have an idea of your chances of survival, IF you get the disease, based on the Italian numbers. 

 

If you dont like the odds, dont get it. 

Edited by Flummoxed
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How did these stats change now that italy is at 5.4k?

 

No idea yet but i am looking for more upto date figures. Guessing I would say the 90+ figure will be much worse. 

 

Edit these figures were before the health system was over whelmed.

 

Italy may be inadvertently developing herd immunity, a policy apparently rejected by the UK government https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/15/21180414/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson Ultimately I think what oceanbreeze would like I think is to let the disease to ride its course and develop a herd immunity.

Edited by Flummoxed
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