Assessing Terrorist Threats

[Racoon]

Or post better.

Like Eclogite, who has a post per rep rating of 8.188.

Or Janus, who's ppr is like 3.185! :eek:

 

TFS

 

Yes, but don't forget TFS,

and I quote BigDog here...

 

Another thing to note is that those people who were members when the rep system first started have received many more reps than those of us who came later, but at a much lower return per hit. When the highest rep anyone had was 25, it would take almost 8 acknowledgements to equal a single "Brotherly Conduct" today. Now there are nine of us over 100 rep, with a whole slew of people in the 30 to 60 range. Newer members are bound to have a higher ratio than older members because the playing field is not the same.

[Turtle]

Post a lot.

Turtle has received 1 rep point for every 19.5 posts.

You have received 1 rep point for every 19.1 posts.

If you had posted as much as Turtle you would have 255 rep points, not 250.

I hereby declare Southtown the winner on points.

 

Allow me to relate this to the topic of the thread 'assessing terrorist threats'. Both systems have received here an analytical view that is linear; neither system is. They both are chaotic systems, or as they call them now 'complex systems'. Linear methods do not solve complex systems problems. As I am fond of quoting Roger Thelonious George, 'chaos favors the prepared imagination'. I have a prepared imagination.:eek:

[Southtown]

:lol:

 

 

The news is great entertainment I agree!:hihi: Furthermore, for much the same reasons as you. This is why I posted the Wickpedia article on the professor. Did you read that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Lewis

 

*My apology for a misattribution

It all makes sense now. They couldn't really expect Beck to insert the phrase "by the Encyclopedia of Historians and Historical Writing" without botching the whole monologue. (Although, the word "influential" isn't always positive.)

 

So far, Lewis seems alright to me, though.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/199009/muslim-rage

[Southtown]

Allow me to relate this to the topic of the thread 'assessing terrorist threats'. Both systems have received here an analytical view that is linear; neither system is. They both are chaotic systems, or as they call them now 'complex systems'. Linear methods do not solve complex systems problems. As I am fond of quoting Roger Thelonious George, 'chaos favors the prepared imagination'. I have a prepared imagination.:ud:

Precisely, allow me to illustrate.

 

While Turtle has an average post-per-rep slightly above mine, he has an average 8.52 posts per day while I merely have 1.95. Therefore, Mr. Turtle must squeeze said rep'titude into an average 2.8169 hours per post, or 2:49:0.84, between each post. And I must squeeze it in 12.3077 hours, or 12:06:18.70, to produce a similar average PPR.

 

What this means is that, given his PPR of 19.5, Turtle can produce 1 rep point every 54.92955 hours, or 2:06:55:46.38, which is nearly every other day. Sadly, I pale by comparison, producing one rep point every 235.07707 hours, or 9:19:04:37.452, which is nearly every ten days. Clearly, I need to practice squeezing rep'titude into a much smaller time frame by a factor of five. :lol:

 

But then it occurred to me that we have been Hypography members for different lengths of time, and now my head hurts. :hihi:

[HydrogenBond]

A few weeks ago the TV media told about a report prepared by the all the governors of the fifty states outlining their potential terrorist targets. Some of the larger states focused on big targets some smaller states had more targets including local town fairs and small historical sites. I forget the number but say 100,000 potential targets were suggested.

 

Consider a terrorist coming from another country. If one could ask them about possible targets, they would only be able to lists a small number due to lack of travel throughout the states. With this report, we have given them all kinds of new ideas they would have never thought about, including soft targets in middle america that are not protected due to budget priorities and available money. It is almost like the brain storming has increased the risks of terrorism by giving terrorists new ideas.

 

Personally, I beleive that law enforcement needs to play with their cards close to their chest. They should also be given WWII liberties to take care of business, but behinds the scenes. The rest of us should go about our business with the expectation the pro's will do their job, because we give them all the tools and liberties needed to get the job done. If we turn the process into a three ring circus with everyone involved, it makes the job harder by increasing the number of suspects and irrational threats.

[Turtle]

Precisely, allow me to illustrate.

 

While Turtle has an average post-per-rep slightly above mine, he has an average 8.52 posts per day while I merely have 1.95. Therefore, Mr. Turtle must squeeze said rep'titude into an average 2.8169 hours per post, or 2:49:0.84, between each post. And I must squeeze it in 12.3077 hours, or 12:06:18.70, to produce a similar average PPR.

 

What this means is that, given his PPR of 19.5, Turtle can produce 1 rep point every 54.92955 hours, or 2:06:55:46.38, which is nearly every other day. Sadly, I pale by comparison, producing one rep point every 235.07707 hours, or 9:19:04:37.452, which is nearly every ten days. Clearly, I need to practice squeezing rep'titude into a much smaller time frame by a factor of five. :doh:

 

But then it occurred to me that we have been Hypography members for different lengths of time, and now my head hurts. B)

You Sir Southtown are hearby declared not a terrorist threat! B) You may want to redo those calculations now in light of your newly aquired rep. While they are indeed useful, they're not the whole story because there is the random element of human behavior not accounted for. I give rep on a whim sometimes for nothing more than a turn of phrase I like, & I have received the same. Friend Orby joinded the Hypography cell about the same time as I, he has more posts & threads than I, but he has fewer rep points. If you want a startling number, look for a member I like to call "Playa X" who has a solid untouchable 1 thread per day!

As to the world at large assessing terrorist threats I want all the information I can get my hands on. Does the farmer ignore learning about weather & leave that to some supposed authority? Heavens no! B)

[Southtown]

Does the farmer ignore learning about weather & leave that to some supposed authority? Heavens no! :cup:

I'd say... there's a 20 percent chance? :D

[Racoon]

Here is a perspective:

a) a group of young students arrive in a strange country

B) several, perhaps all, of these students have never travelled overseas before, and certainly not in the west

c) they are not only in a strange country, but a strange culture, where people speak a foreign language with an unfamiliar range of accents

d) they miss their connecting flight and lack the understanding/resources to easily resolve their problem

 

Well, It doesn't seem like they got lost :evil:

The students were all over the country... :D

 

Seriously, Its gotten to the point that you don't give Middle Eastern Muslim men in their 20's the benefit of the doubt!

 

Sun Aug 13, 11:31 PM ET

 

WASHINGTON - The last two of the 11 Egyptian exchange students who failed to show up at their college program were apprehended Sunday in Richmond, Va., customs officials said.

 

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents arrested Mohamed Saleh Ahmed Maray, 20, and Mohamed Ibrahim Fouaad El Shenawy, 17, at an apartment building in Richmond on Sunday night. Virginia State Police and the Richmond Police helped locate the students.

 

Last Wednesday, one of the Egyptian students was arrested in Minneapolis and two were detained in Manville, N.J. On Thursday, two were arrested in Dundalk, Md., and one was arrested at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago. Three more were arrested Friday in Des Moines, Iowa.

 

The students were to attend a monthlong program at Montana State University in Bozeman, Mont. A group of 17 students arrived in New York on July 29. Six reported to Bozeman on time.

 

After Montana State repeatedly tried to contact the missing students, it notified

Homeland Security Department officials and registered the Egyptians as no-shows in a system to track foreign students developed after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

[Eclogite]

Well, It doesn't seem like they got lost :shrug:

The students were all over the country... :lol:

The last time I looked Americans were making a great deal about it being a free country. Now it appears this applies only to American citizens. Just what is intrinsically wrong about them not being where they said they were going to be? I mean apart from paranoia.

Seriously, Its gotten to the point that you don't give Middle Eastern Muslim men in their 20's the benefit of the doubt!

Seriously, that is exactly the best way to engender an anti-American spirit. Instead of welcoming people from foreign parts to your fine nation you treat us with a finely honed distaste - I speak here of the general demeanour of the immigration services.

[Racoon]

The last time I looked Americans were making a great deal about it being a free country. Now it appears this applies only to American citizens. Just what is intrinsically wrong about them not being where they said they were going to be? I mean apart from paranoia.

 

Seriously, that is exactly the best way to engender an anti-American spirit. Instead of welcoming people from foreign parts to your fine nation you treat us with a finely honed distaste - I speak here of the general demeanour of the immigration services.

 

Times change; and terrorists have made their intentions known.

 

So its better to keep an eye and track these people, especially Middle Eastern Muslims, than to play dumb,ignorant, blind, unconcerned and to just wait for them to pull off a major terrorist act.

[pgrmdave]

And what about when terrorists realize that they can't "fit the profile", and start recruiting europeans, and latinos, and blacks, and asians? Will we keep and eye on and track everybody? Timothy McVeigh was white...

[TheFaithfulStone]

The thing about those egyptian student is that they were on student visas, which people used to use to get into the country and then vanish.

 

You can't really do that anymore, but I think it has more to do with people not leaving after they finish school than terrorism, since I remember the change being implemented when I was in college.

 

Basically, if you have a student visa, and you're not at a school, you're in trouble. Not really germane if you're Egyptian or not. Or at least, that's my understanding. Been a while since I was in college.

 

TFS

[Freddy]

The last time I looked Americans were making a great deal about it being a free country. Now it appears this applies only to American citizens. Just what is intrinsically wrong about them not being where they said they were going to be? I mean apart from paranoia.

Seriously, that is exactly the best way to engender an anti-American spirit. Instead of welcoming people from foreign parts to your fine nation you treat us with a finely honed distaste - I speak here of the general demeanour of the immigration services.

 

The US has immigration laws with some of them not being enforced by our government. This is a failure of the executive branch which is empowered to enforce US immigration and other laws. Americans welcome people from all nations who enter the US legally. Some Americans even welcome those here illegally. Many Americans like me believe any person who comes to the US illegally has no right to demand US citizenship or the right to stay in our country. Every country in the world has the right to set its own immigration laws and enforce them. Sadly the US government has failed to do the latter.

[Racoon]

And what about when terrorists realize that they can't "fit the profile", and start recruiting europeans, and latinos, and blacks, and asians? Will we keep and eye on and track everybody? Timothy McVeigh was white...

 

Yeah, sucks doesn't it?

 

Turning a blind eye and/or being nice doesn't eliminate the threat.. :hyper:

[Southtown]

The last time I looked Americans were making a great deal about it being a free country. Now it appears this applies only to American citizens. Just what is intrinsically wrong about them not being where they said they were going to be? I mean apart from paranoia.

 

Seriously, that is exactly the best way to engender an anti-American spirit. Instead of welcoming people from foreign parts to your fine nation you treat us with a finely honed distaste - I speak here of the general demeanour of the immigration services.

1) Being a free country does infact pertain only to citizens. And even if it pertained to foreigners, it would not mean that they were free to break the law (illegal immigration).

 

2) Always do what other people think you should, instead of using your own intellect, and see where you end up.

 

And what about when terrorists realize that they can't "fit the profile", and start recruiting europeans, and latinos, and blacks, and asians? Will we keep and eye on and track everybody? Timothy McVeigh was white...

So let's adopt a strategy now to suit a method that the criminals don't use yet, instead of using strategies while they work.

 

The US has immigration laws with some of them not being enforced by our government. This is a failure of the executive branch which is empowered to enforce US immigration and other laws. Americans welcome people from all nations who enter the US legally. Some Americans even welcome those here illegally. Many Americans like me believe any person who comes to the US illegally has no right to demand US citizenship or the right to stay in our country. Every country in the world has the right to set its own immigration laws and enforce them. Sadly the US government has failed to do the latter.

True dat!

[TheFaithfulStone]

It may be a free country only for citizens, but the country is founded on the assumption that rights are not granted by the government.

 

Thus - all people everywhere should have the rights of American citizens, at minimum.

 

TFS

[pgrmdave]

Being a free country does infact pertain only to citizens. And even if it pertained to foreigners, it would not mean that they were free to break the law

 

READ YOUR CONSTITUTION!!! All people in the United States, even non-citizens, even illegal aliens, even illegal aliens who rape mothers and young children while committing mass murder while high on crack, have the rights guarenteed within the Constitution.