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US Port Security under foreign control?


Turtle

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… Why they only check 5% of Cargo is Stupid and Lazy..

(more expedient, costs too much)

Guess its because we import so much crap! :)

I suppose by the time a container arrived with a Nuke

It'd already be too late to check it....

Consider the issue from a risk assessment perspective.

 

First, a brief definition of “risk assessment”: Risk assessment is a decision-making approach that uses probability and statistics to determine expected value (expected value = (probability of outcome A)(value of outcome A) +(probability of outcome :)(value of outcome :) +…(probability of outcome ZZZ)(value of outcome ZZZ), where outcomes A through ZZZ are all possible, mutually exclusive outcomes), then choosing actions to maximize of minimize expected value. It can be, and is, used in everything from manufacturing defect management to healthcare to civil defense.

 

Now, imagine you’re the US federal government, you’ve just finished paying all the really important bills, and notice there’s still $250,000,000,000 or so in your checking account (for the sake of argument, assume there’s no national debt). It just so happens you have 2 programs on the board, each with a cost of exactly $250,000,000,000. One provides an inspection and border control program that guarantees no WMD can be smuggled into the country. Another provides a health care program that assures that no citizen will go without adequate healthcare. Either one will be nearly 100% effective if fully funded, nearly 0% effective if only partially funded.

 

You have sound, evidence-supported, health care expert analysis that tells you that the health care program will prevent 50,000 unnecessary deaths a year. Probability=1, Value=50,000 lives, EV=50,000 lives.

 

You have expert military analysis that tells you the a small WMD that will kill 1,000 people, a medium size one that can kill 25,000, or a big, well-placed one that can kill 2,500,000, have probabilities of being successfully used in a give year of .1, .05, and .and .01. EV= 1000*.1 +25000*.05 +2000000*.01 = 26,350 lives.

 

Risk assessment tells you to fund the healthcare program, and take you chances with the WMDs.

 

Of course, this is not exactly how the US federal government thinks. Politically, the voters have accepted, or are unaware of, the 50,000 annual unnecessary deaths, while millions of people burned and poisoned to death in a mushroom cloud is easy but awful to contemplate. I suspect that actual elected leaders and their political advisors do use risk assessment, but in place of lives or money (in conventional risk assessment, lives can be equated to dollars with fairly simple formulae), use votes in upcoming elections.

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Changes to future policy

Using emotions and fears to steer and manipulate the populus

 

Well, if a Nuke did go off, and Al-Queda and Iran is determined to do so,

Fearful emotion would be obvious..

If you thought Unemployment and Downsizing was bad after 911???

 

All those Illegals won't seem so great...

Middle Easteners May not feel so welcome...

People will act strange..

Extreme Anger would also be another Emotion manipulated.

 

But could we detect the Signature of the Type of Nuke used?

ie. Pakistani, Russian, North Korean??

 

And then wipe them off the Map??

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What would our response be??

 

Kicking ***, I suspect.

 

Infinite has a good point there about two different kinds of responses. The Governments response would be pretty devastating. Think World War II. 9-11 was a tragedy, but it posed no serious threat to the survival of America. Asses were kicked, vengance was extracted a hundred-fold, but the primary focus has always been on prevention. No one seriously suggests that we can kill everyone violent who hates us.

 

Something like a nuke on the otherhand, I think would provoke a much more severe response. If you sold it to them, I think you oughta start watching the skies and getting out your SPF-10000.

 

Socially, as well, a MAJOR cultural threatening catastrophe like that has a pretty profound effect on a culture. Witness the difference in American Society before 1941 and after World War II. From Agrarian to Industrial, from professed isolationistist to saber rattling empire.

 

And if you lose... well - witness European hate speech laws - Italy, Germany and Spain have changed a LOT from being former fascist regimes.

 

A real, tangible, immediate threat to our existence would change American culture so drastically that I doubt we would even recognize it. Think about how much change The Greatest Generation saw - but then think about how much change GenXer or GenYer have seen. Comparatively, not much.

 

I don't think we can even start to think about what it would look like. It's a wildcard event.

 

TFS

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___Guten morgen! UAE has postponed the deal until Congress/American people get more facts. A very thoughtful response by my accord. Nothing like a little time to consider novus ordo seclorum.:)

Just a way to give them more time to create a better cover story and attempt to shift the social perceptions... IMHO that is.

 

 

Et, Bonjour a tu aussi, mon ami. Voulez-vous du cafe au lait? :)

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