Skywyze Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 Yes, there IS a chance. But I prefer to hope that a consortium of corporations and universities will build it. Keeps it in the hands of "plain folk".Can you imagine what the "Cheney Memorial Space Elevator" would be used FOR? :) :) I think that's the way it'll have to be. At the pace the government moves we'd never get anything done. The CEV for instance... It seems to me that if they are building it with no new innovations it would take maybe a couple years at the most to build, yet the plan calls for, at the very least, six years until any launch at all, and ten or twelve years for a moon mission... I don't understand why it should take so long. :Crunk: Anyway, I'd love to see the corporations get moving and start to REALLY compete to get ahead in space, but it seems that noone sees a way to profit from it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigDog Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 Anyway, I'd love to see the corporations get moving and start to REALLY compete to get ahead in space, but it seems that noone sees a way to profit from it yet.That is the key to getting everything off the ground. You need to make it a profitable business. And not profitable like stockpiling arms by taxing everyone, but real wealth by providing value that is otherwise unavailable except from space. When that value stream exceeds the cost of launch then the whole thing takes off. Until then the space program is really just a parasite upon the world economy, but one that we keep around because it is cool, and it may provide value in the future. Bill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFaithfulStone Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 That is the key to getting everything off the ground. You need to make it a profitable business. Exactly. I see a couple of ways to do this - the problem is that the initial barrier to entry is SO high. The XPrize is nice, but it's basically a financial joke - and SpaceShipOne is a looooong way from LEO. So how does a company make itself profitable once it conquers the several billion dollar upfront investment of reaching orbit? I don't think Space Tourism is gonna do it. I see a couple of likely canidates. 1)Military Contracts. How much would the US Army pay for space based weapons? A LOT. This doesn't lead to manned space flight though, at least not until you start having dog fights in outerspace. :) Or weapons you don't trust computers with. (Orbital laser cannons! ZAP!) 2)Resource Recovery. There are things that are abundant in space that are pretty (relatively) rare here. Like He3, Palladium (I think), and solar power. If orbital solar power beaming becomes a reality, some one stands to make a bunch of money. But in both of these cases, the barriers to GETTING to that pot of gold at the end are pretty high. That's why we need the space program - NASA can (could) do research into things like the VASIMIR engine and Power Beaming without worrying about how they make money back later. Then the private sector can steal this research and use it to make money. NASA is a government funded loss-leader for the space industry. You have to spend money to make money, iow. Anyway - I think it's arguable that space exploration doesn't solve any identifiable problems - no it won't cure hunger, or stop overpopulation, or any of that. On the other hand - exploration and discovery is basically the reason that we exist. Learn or die. Plus, there's that whole "Sun swallows planet" scenario to deal with in the far far future. I think "parasite" might be a bit perjorative. TFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfiniteNow Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 Take the concept of profits and cost out of the equation and it suddenly changes completely... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFaithfulStone Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 Into what? If it doesn't cost anything why not do it? If it doesn't produce anything why do it? Tough to take the concept of profit and loss out of an equation, since without, you've basically got no equation. TFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfiniteNow Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFaithfulStone Posted February 22, 2006 Report Share Posted February 22, 2006 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayra Posted March 2, 2006 Report Share Posted March 2, 2006 Profit.Would a small metal bearing asteroid valued at 20 trillion be incentive enough? 2020 will bring once close enough to capture/harvest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfiniteNow Posted March 2, 2006 Report Share Posted March 2, 2006 2020 will bring once close enough to capture/harvest. 2029 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayra Posted March 2, 2006 Report Share Posted March 2, 2006 doh..I was misinformed, and can not find the site that had that info now :shrug:I will take your word for it. Stack on that the 4 billion a year satelite launch business .... (of course, it would be much less then that if you had a space elevator. :eek2: ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InfiniteNow Posted March 2, 2006 Report Share Posted March 2, 2006 doh..I was misinformed, and can not find the site that had that info now :eek2:I will take your word for it.No worries, I actually quoted the 2020 figure earlier today myself, but after some follow-up realized it was mistaken. http://hypography.com/forums/astronomy-cosmology/5629-danger-asteroids.html Cheers. :shrug: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayra Posted March 2, 2006 Report Share Posted March 2, 2006 ThereAt least I found the darned reference http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/27/technology/business2_guidetospaceintro/index.htm?cnn=yes Correct or not, I am not nuts :shrug: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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