atomsmasher Posted May 30, 2021 Report Share Posted May 30, 2021 Below is what I have found. You can do the math Globally, crude's reserves-to-production ratio has hovered between 40-55 years. The 1P estimate is an estimate of proven reserves, what is likely to be extracted from a well, 90% probability. Probable reserves are given 50% certainty (2P) and possible reserves a 10% certainty (3P). https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczq https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczqv Overall, global supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day in August, .2017 https://tinyurl.com/yctnaj3f our forecast horizon we will be in a 104 mb/d market and the call on OPEC crude and stock change rises from 32.2 mb/d in 2016 to 35.8 mb/d in 2022. With the group forecast to add 1.95 mb/d to production capacity in this period, this implies that available spare production capacity will fall below 2 mb/d.https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil2017MRSsum.pdf Oil is a resource… it will run out For decades now, the topic of when our oil will run out has been the focus of analysts and industry experts. The concern is real. Oil is a resource and will eventually be depleted. Once we discover and process all sources, there’s nothing else. It’s only a question of time. Oil still remains the largest source of primary energy worldwide. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the global supply of oil, bio-fuel and liquid hydrocarbons are still enough to meet the global demand for liquid fuels for another 25 years. The good news is that developing countries are now seriously exploring and using alternative and renewable energy. Here’s the latest report on Oil Consumption and Demand. 1. The world oil consumption per day is 91.7 million barrels as of May 2014. 2. The U.S. is the largest oil consumer in the world, using up 18.83 million barrels a day. 3. China uses 10% of the world’s oil. It is expected to overtake the U.S. as the largest oil consumer. 4. The global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels a day by late 2014. http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/World-Oil-Consumption-per-Day North Sea is running too dry to meet target North Sea is running too dry to meet target Wednesday July 4, 2007 http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energy/story/0,,2117952,00.html The real casus belli: peak oil Tuesday June 26, 2007 https://tinyurl.com/ydbn6h5w Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply Published: June 21, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.html Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves 07/08/05 https://tinyurl.com/y9czea39 An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise Published: June 12, 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.html?pagewanted=3&hp "The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change" https://tinyurl.com/y9vjsms2 In January 2001, the U.S. Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003). http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html World oil and gas 'running out' Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT) https://tinyurl.com/y9vjsms2 The Oil Crunch Published: May 7, 2004 The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is inevitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.html Natural gas markets undergo turbulent transition as domestic production declines Tuesday, December 16, 2003 https://tinyurl.com/ybpe8z7o "Texas' oil resource is pretty well picked over," https://tinyurl.com/y7zcarzf Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show Published: April 8, 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/business/08OIL.html?hp Half of Texas’s oil wells have dried up in the past 40 years and there are very few new ones. https://tinyurl.com/y7zcarzf Tight Oil Supply Won't Ease Soon Published: May 16, 2004 Two dollars for a gallon of gas? Get used to it. High fuel prices are here to stay, at least for the near future, because no relief is in sight for tight oil supplies. https://tinyurl.com/ylpmx5z The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted May 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2021 (edited) Climate Change will not bring about our end~~ but this will; within your grandchild’s life time The climate has been changing since day one & it will continue to change, with or without us!!! Today’s real issue is ENERGY, so let’s get together and fix this while we still can The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-? Energy information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US government http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html The above report indicates that the US will be using primarily oil as our main energy source through 2030. The world's total declared reserves are 1,317,400,000,000 barrels (January 2007). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves World oil consumption 2005 is 80,290,000 barrels per day or 29,305,850,000 per year https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us 44.9 years of oil supply at the current consumption rate. That was eleven (14)years ago, we are not changing our habits and this spells doom for us all. Edited May 30, 2021 by atomsmasher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted May 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2021 China plans ban on petrol and diesel cars https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/china-plans-ban-on-petrol-and-diesel-cars-1.3215796 China looks at ending sales of gasoline cars https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/mobility/2017/09/09/china-gasoline-car-ban/105462466/ China to ban all petrol and diesel cars https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-petrol-diesel-car-ban-gasoline-production-sales-electric-cabinet-official-state-media-a7938726.html China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020 | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-renewables/china-to-plow-361-billion-into-renewable-fuel-by-2020-idUSKBN14P06P What is the USA doing-? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted May 31, 2021 Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 (edited) Nuclear Power, Solar Power, and Hydroelectric power will become dominate after we run out of Oil. Furthermore, you can always combust Biodiesel which is methylated vegetable fats and make infinite amounts of it from plant oils, sulfuric acid, and methanol. The Depletion of oil is far lesser a crisis than what the news and media make it out to be. Edited May 31, 2021 by VictorMedvil atomsmasher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted May 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, VictorMedvil said: Nuclear Power, Solar Power, and Hydroelectric power will become dominate after we run out of Oil. Furthermore, you can always combust Biodiesel which is methylated vegetable fats and make infinite amounts of it from plant oils, sulfuric acid, and methanol. The world is already using Nuclear Power, Solar Power, and Hydroelectric power to its max output. Some are also trying to get some energy out of wave action. But do not let this concern you, the engineers who cover this for a living are working on solutions. After saying this I must add that I should not have brought this up in the first place. Still the transition will be a tuff one. Many of the products we get from oil will be gone, for example plastics and some medical contributions. Being new here I just thought I would stir the pot According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), this is a list of petroleum products and their share of total US petroleum consumption in 2013. Gasoline 46% Heating Oil / Diesel Fuel 20% Jet Fuel ( kerosene) 8% Propane / Propylene 7% NGL / LRG 6% Still Gas 4% Petrochemical Feedstocks 2% Petroleum Coke 2% Residual / Heavy Fuel Oil 2% Asphalt / Road Oil 2% Lubricants 1% Miscellaneous Products / Special Naphthas 0.4% Other Liquids 1% Aviation Gasoline 0.1% Waxes 0.04% Kerosene 0.02% Edited May 31, 2021 by atomsmasher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted May 31, 2021 Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 1 hour ago, atomsmasher said: The world is already using Nuclear Power, Solar Power, and Hydroelectric power to its max output. That is definitely not true there are many more Nuclear Power Stations and Solar Panels that could be in operation. atomsmasher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted May 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 51 minutes ago, VictorMedvil said: That is definitely not true there are many more Nuclear Power Stations and Solar Panels that could be in operation. I can only hope you are right But the facts say otherwise end of oil - Google Search Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted May 31, 2021 Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, atomsmasher said: I can only hope you are right But the facts say otherwise end of oil - Google Search I have a question for you is every section of land and water on the entire planet covered in solar panels? Then obviously that is retarded to say we are using all of solar power's capacity. The Scale is starting to measure that you are a crank on my crankometer. Edited May 31, 2021 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted May 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, VictorMedvil said: I have a question for you And I have one for you-- If you – Take all the energy we are now getting from fossil fuels, oil & gas, and compare this to the amount of solar energy we are getting, or could get, do you honestly believe solar panels will supply our future energy needs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted May 31, 2021 Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, atomsmasher said: And I have one for you-- If you – Take all the energy we are now getting from fossil fuels, oil & gas, and compare this to the amount of solar energy we are getting, or could get, do you honestly believe solar panels will supply our future energy needs? Solar, Nuclear, Hydroelectric, and Biofuels can supply the world, I believe, until we start to mine other planets and asteroids. Edited May 31, 2021 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted May 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 I opened this discussion just to start a discussion, nothing more. The world is running out of fossil fuels, this is a fact. The transition will be a rocky road with lots of big bumps along the way. This too is a fact. There is nothing you or I can do to change the outcome. VictorMedvil, thanks for contributing to this topic. bye Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Food for thought!!! 1.5 trillion barrels of oil has how much mass and the effect of its removal from the total mass of the earth. The earth is reverting back to its volcanic state. The poles are collapsing and the earth's rotation has slowed. Catastrophic climate failure will happen way before the oil runs out!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomsmasher Posted November 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) On 5/31/2021 at 2:31 AM, VictorMedvil said: he Depletion of oil is far lesser a crisis than what the news and media make it out to be. Oil reserves are a known quantity (+/-) and annual consumption is a known number. Summary Table Oil Reserves 1,650,585,140,000 barrels Oil Consumption 35,442,913,090 barrels per year 97,103,871 barrels per day Reserves/Consumption 47 (years left) https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ The truth will set us all free Edited November 17, 2021 by atomsmasher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanBreeze Posted November 18, 2021 Report Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/17/2021 at 12:59 AM, rex said: Food for thought!!! 1.5 trillion barrels of oil has how much mass and the effect of its removal from the total mass of the earth. The earth is reverting back to its volcanic state. The poles are collapsing and the earth's rotation has slowed. Catastrophic climate failure will happen way before the oil runs out!!! the oil in the earth is for support as well as a cooling factor!!! take the studs from a house and see what happens to that house!!! Scientist are looking in the Wrong direction!!! More food for thought: Conservation of Mass. You need to read up on it sometime. Also, posting the same nonsense three times does not make it right, so I am removing your two other duplicate posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanBreeze Posted November 18, 2021 Report Share Posted November 18, 2021 22 hours ago, atomsmasher said: Oil reserves are a known quantity (+/-) and annual consumption is a known number. Summary Table Oil Reserves 1,650,585,140,000 barrels Oil Consumption 35,442,913,090 barrels per year 97,103,871 barrels per day Reserves/Consumption 47 (years left) https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ The truth will set us all free The truth is, if we believed every estimate of peak oil we would have run out a long time ago. We are constantly discovering huge new reserves and new ways of extracting the fossil fuels that we know exist. Plus, we are decreasing our dependence on fossil fuels and making more use of alternate energy sources. There is nothing to panic about, but a little concern is warranted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted November 18, 2021 Report Share Posted November 18, 2021 (edited) On 11/17/2021 at 3:54 PM, atomsmasher said: Oil reserves are a known quantity (+/-) and annual consumption is a known number. Summary Table Oil Reserves 1,650,585,140,000 barrels Oil Consumption 35,442,913,090 barrels per year 97,103,871 barrels per day Reserves/Consumption 47 (years left) https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ The truth will set us all free I tell you Nuclear power can sustain us for a very long time there are deposits of uranium on Mars and Earth's Moon as a fact along with probably most planets and moons in the universe that are rocky. We could literally use Uranium/Nuclear Fission as a nearly infinite source of energy to power our civilization for millions and billions of years strip mined from various rocky astronomical bodies, There is 600 trillions tons of uranium just in the solar system which 4.32 Trillion tons of that is fissile uranium 235, If that was all used in fission it would make 321,361,116,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules of energy or 3.67044754444444403*10^23 Kilowatt Hours of Energy which is worth around $44,040,000,000,000,000,000,000 or $44,040 Quintillion US Dollars at 12 cents a kilowatt hour. So basically the world currently consumes 23 * 10 ^ 12 Kilowatt hours each year, so that much uranium 235 would supply the earth at current consumption levels for 15,956,521,739 Years basically until the sun explodes in 5 billion years, so realistically if our energy demands increase exponentially for 126,319 years just from our solar system. link = https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2009/08/how-much-uranium-is-in-solar-system.html "Uranium exists on the moon, according to new data from a Japanese spacecraft. ... The findings are the first conclusive evidence for the presence of the radioactive element in lunar dirt, the researchers said." "Mars has uranium ore scattered on the surface, which the Martians could use to become self-sustained." Why do you care about Oil again? Edited November 18, 2021 by VictorMedvil atomsmasher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vmedvil2 Posted November 18, 2021 Report Share Posted November 18, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, VictorMedvil said: I tell you Nuclear power can sustain us for a very long time there are deposits of uranium on Mars and Earth's Moon as a fact along with probably most planets and moons in the universe that are rocky. We could literally use Uranium/Nuclear Fission as a nearly infinite source of energy to power our civilization for millions and billions of years strip mined from various rocky astronomical bodies, There is 600 trillions tons of uranium just in the solar system which 4.32 Trillion tons of that is fissile uranium 235, If that was all used in fission it would make 321,361,116,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules of energy or 3.67044754444444403*10^23 Kilowatt Hours of Energy which is worth around $44,040,000,000,000,000,000,000 or $44,040 Quintillion US Dollars at 12 cents a kilowatt hour. So basically the world currently consumes 23 * 10 ^ 12 Kilowatt hours each year, so that much uranium 235 would supply the earth at current consumption levels for 15,956,521,739 Years basically until the sun explodes in 5 billion years, so realistically if our energy demands increase exponentially for 126,319 years just from our solar system. link = https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2009/08/how-much-uranium-is-in-solar-system.html "Uranium exists on the moon, according to new data from a Japanese spacecraft. ... The findings are the first conclusive evidence for the presence of the radioactive element in lunar dirt, the researchers said." "Mars has uranium ore scattered on the surface, which the Martians could use to become self-sustained." Why do you care about Oil again? Actually I wanna go deeper so there are 4.32 Trillion tons of uranium 235 in the solar systems let's assume that our solar system has a average amount for every solar system in the entire galaxy. "The Milky Way contains between 100-400 billion stars and at least that many planets. An exact figure would depend on counting the number of very-low-mass stars, which are difficult to detect, especially at distances of more than 300 ly (90 pc) from the Sun." So let's assume 250 billion star systems in a galaxy at 4.32 trillion tons of uranium 235 per solar system that is fissile that makes 1,080,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Tons of Uranium 235 in the galaxy which is then 9.175 * 10 ^ 34 Kilowatt hours of energy in the galaxy from uranium 235 fission. So, ya there is alot of uranium 235 to split in our galaxy. Edited November 19, 2021 by VictorMedvil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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