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Ebola


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#18 Buffy

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Posted 05 October 2014 - 11:52 AM

Yes, this is definitely a numbers game, and you've always got to contend with folks who do the wrong thing, and that's not inconsequential. We had eliminated polio and made measles a rare occurrence until the anti-Vaxers started refusing to get their kids vaccinated, and that's in the US, not the third world.

 

I think there's something quite different though when people are faced with a disease that is as horrible as Ebola is. When thinking about that daughter, yes, you don't want her to miss out on that job, but what if there's a 50% chance she'll not only enjoy that job for only a few weeks but also die a horrible painful death if you keep it a secret?

 

I have a kid, so I know exactly how I'd answer that question, and I think I know how most parents would too.

 

Although you didn't bring it up, there's also a bunch of whackjobs on the airwaves these days claiming the CDC is incompetent and we shouldn't believe what they're saying. Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo published a piece last night dealing with this that I think is useful:

I don't take everything the CDC says as gospel. It would not be entirely unreasonable to think that if folks at the CDC had or were screwing things up they might have an institutional or personal interest in covering up or downplaying those failures. But the people at the CDC are not the only people with knowledge about this stuff. If we were seeing knowledgable people saying that everything was getting screwed up, I'd be worried. But we're not. Quite the contrary actually.

 

What I have seen are amateurs - people with as much knowledge as I have - using their own logic and suppositions to draw conclusions, often but not always with a backdrop of fear and trash talk. Sometimes I can spot their logical fallacies. Other times I can't.

 

But this a case where having knowledge actually matters. If you literally do not know what you're talking about, I'm going to put your opinions at the back of the line behind those people who do know what they're talking about. And others should too.

 

 

A little reasoned sanity and suppression of panic can go a long way in making sure we actually do conquer Ebola.

 

 

Anxiety is love's greatest killer. It makes others feel as you might when a drowning man holds on to you. You want to save him, but you know he will strangle you with his panic, :phones:

Buffy



#19 Deepwater6

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Posted 06 October 2014 - 03:26 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_t1

I agree with the anxiety and panic. The media just can't help themselves. Right now in big bold lettering the CNN cover page on it's site says "CASE IS A FIRST IN EBOLA OUTBREAK" They are referring to health care worker in Spain, but WOW what a splash that headline makes.



#20 Racoon

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Posted 25 October 2014 - 10:05 PM

Is Ebola nature's equalizer to human overpopulation?

 

I don't think anyone can  truely say how its Transmitted exactly.  Yes I know bodily fluids, but it seems to be a little trickier than that. It could be evolving.

 

Can the virus be absorbed thru the skin?? 

It can live in semen for up to 70 days so is it sexually transmittable ??

 

Pretty amazing how a little virus can be so deadly. It destroys the membrane of the capillaries so you bleed out with a nice little fever.

 

Obama and the CDC are incompetent. I don't trust anything they say..

 

It almost feels like the Andromeda Strain.  Make sure you have a month or 2 of food and water to hole up under a crisis just in case.


Edited by Racoon, 25 October 2014 - 10:11 PM.


#21 Buffy

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 01:45 PM

Obama and the CDC are incompetent. I don't trust anything they say..

 

Rep Peter King is the only expert on this, so don't listen to anything anyone else has to say.

 

By the way, talking about not trusting Obama: Apparently he is ensuring that people with Ebola are assigned to every polling place in America. If you don't want to die, make sure NOT to vote on November 4th.

 

 

We must pledge ourselves to support those brave men and women who this very moment are carrying forth the struggle against British imperialism in the streets of Belfast and Derry, :phones:

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#22 tscience

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 12:23 AM

The countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia have reported the most infections, with additional cases in Nigeria, Senegal, one in Spain, and four in the United States. To date, the current outbreak includes 9,936 cases of Ebola as of October 19, 2014, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Read more on www.everdayhealth.com or here: http://goo.gl/5RqNf0


Edited by tscience, 27 October 2014 - 12:25 AM.


#23 sanctus

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 02:52 AM

Rac, it has happened before virus can evolve, for instance it could become airborne. An article I read somewhere said it happened with other viruses but usually then they got less lethal with one exception(which I do not remember). I tried to find the article again, but even without keyword ebola only "virus becoming airborne" I get only resutls about ebola and how unlikely such a mutation is (although no one says it is zero).

 

And yes it is sexually transmissible, there were cases now of male survivors who then infected their partner after being released from hospital.



#24 Floppy

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 07:26 AM

Has it spread to Spain btw? Haven't quite kept up.

And my friend and his gf are in Africa who were worried :/
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#25 CraigD

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 08:25 AM

Is Ebola nature's equalizer to human overpopulation?

Nature, of course, isn’t purposeful in the sense of consciously “equalizing” species with epi/pandemics. If it were – or, more plausibly, humans were to use a natural disease as a weapon – I don’t think ebola would be a good choice, because it’s not as easily transmitted, difficult to detect and contain, and doesn’t kill as great a fraction of people who’re infected with it, as other pathogens.

Consider the current Ebola epidemic, compared to the 1918 influenza pandemic. The medical response in both cases is essentially the same – quarantine infected people to prevent spread of the disease, keep hydrated and nourished until their immune system can overcome it – both had/are like to have similar durations – about 2-3 years - but in 1918-1920 flu pandemic killed 50,000,000 to 100,000,000, while the current Ebola epidemic has killed about 5,000, and will likely have killed about 10,000 before it’s over. Statistically, the flu pandemic was about 10,000 times more deadly than our current Ebola epidemic.
 

Can the virus be absorbed thru the skin??

Being, like nearly all viruses, very small (about 0.000001 m diameter), Ebola can physically be absorbed by skin, which is porous on such scales. However, skin consists of a (by anatomical standards) thick layer of dead tissue – the epidermis – containing no blood vessels. Ebola is able to infect and be reproduced only in living cells, primarily endothelial (blood vessel lining), macrophage, and liver cells, so having it in your skin won’t directly infect you.

The reason to avoid skin contact with fluids containing the Ebola virus is that you’re likely to spread it to your eyes, mouth, or nasal passages, which unlike skin, provide entry to the bloodstream. While in principle one could wash thoroughly, especially with a bleach solution, which is destructive to viruses, which, compared to true biological organism, are fragile, it’s better to use disposable or washable impermeable protective gowns and suits, taking care to avoid touching their outsides when doffing (taking them off).
 

It can live in semen for up to 70 days so is it sexually transmittable ??

Almost certainly, yes.

Quoting from this CDC page:

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.

I believe this feature of the disease is under-communicated I’ve not read or heard it from a major US or UK news outlet. I hope it’s being better communicated in West Africa, where most Ebola survivors live.
 

Pretty amazing how a little virus can be so deadly. It destroys the membrane of the capillaries so you bleed out with a nice little fever.

Being destructive to endothelial cells, Ebola can and does cause intestinal and internal bleeding. However, most deaths result from failure to keep enough water in the bloodstream – hypervolemic due to dehydration. People who are promptly cared for with IV fluids have a much greater (possibly as high as 95%) chance of surviving.

Compare this to the HIV virus that causes AIDS, which unless treated with drugs that attack the virus – which took decades or research by thousands of specialists - is nearly 100% fatal. In the details of its pathophysiology, Ebola is not among the most deadly viruses.
 

It almost feels like the Andromeda Strain.

I found the 1969 novel the Andromeda Strain scary, thrilling, and scientifically interesting (especially since I read it shortly after its publication, when I was an impressionable 10 years old), but comparisons of Ebola, a well-studied and understood member of the Filovirus family of viruses, to the fictional “Andromeda Strain”, which came from space, had a never-before-seen-on-Earth structure and mechanism (these days, we’d likely call it a “nanomachine”, though that term wasn’t coined ‘til about 1986). Perhaps the scariest part of the novel, and the main driver of its waning plot, was
Spoiler
. Just leaving Ebola to dry out outside of a host for a few days, or bleaching it, kills it.
 

Obama and the CDC are incompetent. I don't trust anything they say..

Though not so far a problem in the US and other countries with agencies like the CDC, lack of trust like this is believed by many experts to be one of reasons the current West African Ebola epidemic has been so large. Not trusting medical caregivers and government or non-government agency information, many Africans have refused to cooperate, removing infected people from the quarantine needed to thwart the disease’s spread, and care that can increase their odds of survival.

Such mistrust is dangerous. Fortunately, it’s not widespread. In the US, I think it’s mostly due to subdued political advertising by the Republican Party and its supporters, and unlikely to have much effect on the Ebola epidemic.
 

Make sure you have a month or 2 of food and water to hole up under a crisis just in case.

“Be prepared” is good advice, but I think the likelihood of needing to hole up to survive an Ebola pandemic is nearly zero. Human extinguishing nanomachines from space like the Andromeda Strain seem to me as likely.
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#26 Racoon

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:13 PM

I disagree with a few things CraigD said in his great post, but at least we're getting the ball rolling on this discussion...

 

I doubt Nature has a "Conscience", inassuch we consider that "Mindfulness" to be attributed to geographic lanscapes worldwide....,  but Ebola most likely came from a dark bat cave deep in the jungle where humans weren't originaly intended to be.

 

I'm well aware of the Flu of 1918. But Ebola is not the same..

Just imagine (here shortly) during the incoming Flu season how many people are going to go to the hospital not aware if they have a common garden variety flu or Ebola. How much confusion this will cause in ER's.

This has Catastophe potential written all over it.

 

Ebola not among the most deadly of viruses?? Not to get in a pissing contest, but AIDS is spread thru sexual contact, blood exchange.. And takes up to years to kill...

Ebola kills 70% and in a few weeks, and doesn't require the same intimacy or demographic  to acquire it..

Ebola is much worse than AIDS in that regard.. Ebola is not a Lifestyle choice disease.


Edited by Racoon, 27 October 2014 - 05:15 PM.


#27 Racoon

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 05:45 PM

Nobody can also say definitively how Ebola is transmitted or Not ..

 

Bodily fluids, yeah.. But the Americans who contracted the disease so far can't pinpoint any direct vector for aquiring it during their work effort..

 

Imagine if Ebola goes airborne. Maybe it is already.

 

Theres alot we don't know.. So Precaution be of utmost importance.



#28 sanctus

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 03:07 AM

Craig:


I believe this feature of the disease is under-communicated I’ve not read or heard it from a major US or UK news outlet. I hope it’s being better communicated in West Africa, where most Ebola survivors live.

 

On  how not to catch ebola page on bbc they do say it: http://www.bbc.com/n...health-29518703


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#29 Eclogite

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 05:39 AM

In 2013 there were in excess of 500,000 deaths from malaria globally. There is no reason to expect this year to be dramatically different. That's a couple of orders of magnitude more than the expected deaths from this ebola outbreak. And that is each year. In 2012 malria killed 1300 children under five every day - almost one every minute. Excuse me for not panicking about ebola.

 

The reasons to be concerned about the outbreak (apart from common human decency that should regret even a single death) are:

1. Geometric growth of infected persons without intervention.

2. Concentration of deaths in a small geogrpahic region with a consequent impact on the social and economic foundations of that society. (The disproportionate deaths among medical personnel is the headline aspect of this concern.)

 

In the US 37,000 people die each year in road traffic "accidents". Racoon, do you really think there is a possibility ebola could escape into the general population in the US and produce a similar result? Yet, I don't here people screaming we must stop driving our cars, or moving our goods by truck. Again, excuse me for not panicking about ebola, and forgive me for adopting an ultra-defensive mind set when I climb into my car.


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#30 sanctus

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 06:16 AM

Eclogite, also Malaria-deaths increase drastically thanks to Ebola. Initial symptoms are about the same and in addition people are scared to go to the hospital so more die of Malaria. See for example: http://www.bbc.com/n...health-29756066

 

No one says you should panick, concerned yes, as you seem to be. 


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#31 Floppy

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 07:09 AM

Eclogite, also Malaria-deaths increase drastically thanks to Ebola. Initial symptoms are about the same and in addition people are scared to go to the hospital so more die of Malaria. See for example: http://www.bbc.com/n...health-29756066
 
No one says you should panick, concerned yes, as you seem to be.

you mean people have both diseases? Difference between them? What distinguishes them in regards to symptoms?
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#32 sanctus

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 07:17 AM

Floppy, I mean that the symptoms are similar in the beginning. So you can look like having either or both at the same time. Eg. both have fever and vomiting as a symptom. I also just saw that early on cholera has also the same symptoms...


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#33 Floppy

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 08:07 AM

Floppy, I mean that the symptoms are similar in the beginning. So you can look like having either or both at the same time. Eg. both have fever and vomiting as a symptom. I also just saw that early on cholera has also the same symptoms...


why are people scared to go to hospital though?
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#34 sanctus

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 08:37 AM

Floppy, read through these articles for example, they answer all your questions:

http://www.bbc.com/n...africa-28754546


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