Wannabelifeguard Posted May 10, 2020 Report Share Posted May 10, 2020 Hi guys, If we assume that a police criminal profiler provides the following profile (and made up justifications) of a murder suspect: Attribute 1: Killer is male Justification: 90% of killers are male. Attribute 2: Killer is unemployedJustification: 90% of killers are unemployed Attribute 3: Killer is an only childJustification: 90% of killers are only childs Attribute 2: Killer has no criminal convictionsJustification: 90% of killers have no criminal convictions Remember, the stats are just made up. How do I work out the probability the the entire profile is correct? Should I treat all four attributes as dependent variables because 100% profile correctness depends on all attributes being correct? Something tells me that this is the wrong approach but I can't figure out why. Or are the variables independent? I suspect this is the correct approach and the probability of the profile being 100% correct is 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.6561. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

OceanBreeze Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Hi guys, If we assume that a police criminal profiler provides the following profile (and made up justifications) of a murder suspect: Attribute 1: Killer is male Justification: 90% of killers are male. Attribute 2: Killer is unemployedJustification: 90% of killers are unemployed Attribute 3: Killer is an only childJustification: 90% of killers are only childs Attribute 2: Killer has no criminal convictionsJustification: 90% of killers have no criminal convictions Remember, the stats are just made up. How do I work out the probability the the entire profile is correct? Should I treat all four attributes as dependent variables because 100% profile correctness depends on all attributes being correct? Something tells me that this is the wrong approach but I can't figure out why. Or are the variables independent? I suspect this is the correct approach and the probability of the profile being 100% correct is 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.6561. Any thoughts? You multiply the individual probabilities, as you did 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.6561 You do this whether they are dependent or independent variables. But this does not guarantee the profile is 100% correct. There is never such a guarantee when dealing with probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

## Recommended Posts

## Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.