Truth About The Astaroid Heading For Earth In 2016

[clapstyx]

Some years ago there were reports in the popular media here in Australia that NASA had released information about an astaroid on collision course with the Earth. I am wondering if it was a true report. The Earth it seems has not responded as one in its own defence which is what should happen if we have come fully to grips with the situation. Does anyone have any information about this astaroid?

[Turtle]

Some years ago there were reports in the popular media here in Australia that NASA had released information about an astaroid on collision course with the Earth. I am wondering if it was a true report. The Earth it seems has not responded as one in its own defence which is what should happen if we have come fully to grips with the situation. Does anyone have any information about this astaroid?

 

any chance you could find a report/story link? it's hard to track down a specific asteroid on such slim data. here's a link to the Near Earth Object Program @NASA; they have lists of asteroids, orbit diagrams, etcetera for all known asteroids. my current understanding is that approx. 90% of 1 kilometer or greater asteroids are known and none are on impact course in the near future.

 

the above link has a story about a potential impact in 2040 getting downgraded.

 

NASA RELEASES WORKSHOP DATA AND FINDINGS ON ASTEROID 2011 AG5

NASA RELEASES WORKSHOP DATA AND FINDINGS ON ASTEROID 2011 AG5

WASHINGTON -- Researchers anticipate that asteroid 2011 AG5, discovered in January 2011, will fly safely past and not impact Earth in 2040.

Current findings and analysis data were reported at a May 29 workshop at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., attended by scientists and engineers from around the world. Discussions focused on observations of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs).

 

Observations to date indicate there is a slight chance that AG5 could impact Earth in 2040. Attendees expressed confidence that in the next four years, analysis of space and ground-based observations will show the likelihood of 2011 AG5 missing Earth to be greater than 99 percent. ...

[Buffy]

Your post is a little too vague to pin down which asteroid you're referring to, but NASA keeps comprehensive list of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) here: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/.

 

Nothing on the list is warranting turning civilization upside down at the moment, but of course conditions may change at any time...

 

Observatories dedicated to the study of astronomy are set in high and remote places, but there is none more remote than Mt. Kenna Observatory in this part of South Africa, :phones:

Buffy

[CraigD]

Some years ago there were reports in the popular media here in Australia that NASA had released information about an astaroid on collision course with the Earth.

I don't recall, and can't find searching nasa.gov, a NASA press release about a asteroid that might collide with Earth in 2016.

 

The near-Earth object tracking agencies Turtle and Buffy mention give a closest approach of a body large enough to be dangerous of 0.08816 AU (about 33 times the distance to the Moon) on 16 Nov 2016 by asteroid 1998 VN.

 

There was quite a bit of press about a NASA-operated asteroid sample return mission, OSIRIS-REx, which has a Sep 2016 planned launch, and a 2023 planned return. OSIRIS-REx is intended to return a sample for asteroid 1999 RQ₃₆, which modeling has shown has a small (<0.07%) probability of hitting Earth on one of 8 close approaches between 2169 and 2199.

 

Clapstyx, could you be remembering of reports of this, rather than an asteroid impact?

[Eclogite]

The way the system works is that an orbit is calculated based upon a series of observations. As soon as they have the minimal number necessary they run a projection to determine possible risk of collision. Because this is based on very few data points the error bars are large and possible collisions show up quite often. This leads to an annoucement, a press release and - if it is a slow news day - contrived panic. Once more observations are in, the orbit refined, the error bars reduced, the risk almost always disappears.Perhaps that's what happened here.