What's Russia's game plan?

[Boerseun]

What could Russia be up to?

 

After years of peaceful winding down of the Cold War, the calamity in Georgia is now augmented by the Russians reserving the right to drop a nuke on Poland, should Poland allow the Americans to go ahead with their planned missile defence shield, a vital part of it to be built in Poland. In yesterday's Sunday Times, its reported that the Russians are planning to refit their Baltic fleet with nuclear weapons.

 

The French-brokered peace plan between Russia and Georgia, determines that both parties must repair back to the pre-war situation, and that, of course, implies a Russian withdrawal from South Ossettia. There are no signs that the Russians are doing this, and no signs that they are planning on doing it, either.

 

Their message to the world seems clear: Have your peace plans, sweet-talking diplomats, and where necessarry, we'll join in the bullshit diplomacy charade - but we'll still do as we damn well please in our neck of the woods. And Georgia and Poland is our neck of the woods.

 

Which, of course, worries Uncle Sam's socks off - and perfectly justifies the intended Russian missile shield planned for Eastern Europe.

 

What might be the Russian motive behind this? It's been well-known that it's Putin's dream to re-establish Russia's superpower status. And being the Prime Minister, the President being largely a figurehead and a Putin-puppet, Putin couldn't pick a better time for this.

 

What with the USA being up to its neck in Iraq, with billions of dollars going down the drain on a daily basis, and America selling its future to the East, can the 'States afford another Cold War? Is Russia carefully maneouvering the USA into the situation the Russians were in with Afghanistan - a situation which finally broke their backs?

 

Imagine a Cold War escalation to the levels reached in the 80's - will the rest of the world pick sides once again, or will they let the US and Russia finally slug it out on their own - and then rather look towards the emerging superpowers of the East for their political alliance?

 

I don't know. All I see is a enormous waste of resources winking at us from just over the horizon - be it militarily, or just economically.

[Buffy]

Putin is just as much an Imperialist as Bush or McCain. Fortunately or unfortunately, I think he's smarter. What the Russians learned in Afghanistan that we apparently did not learn from Viet Nam, is that occupation is a rathole for money and actually means that you end up *not* controlling what you are trying to control.

 

By invading South Ossetia with ooodles of cover kindly provided by Bush's invasion of Iraq--watching the neo-cons attempt this week to explain why the two are different has been endlessly entertaining--they scared the crap out of Ukraine, the Baltic states and most of the "Former Soviet" world. Because Bush boxed himself into a corner with no resources to apply, its been shown that the US *will not* react.

 

So what does Putin do? Sign the peace treaty and withdraw, giving Russia the high moral ground that has been so foolishly abdicated by Bush and the neo-cons.

 

Point made, foolish "renegade" satellite states brought into line, troops victoriously home.

 

Checkmate.

 

(side note, I've pushed this on Putin, where some may qubble that Medvedev is president now...well, I think he's as "independent" as Kerensky...)

 

Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece, :shrug:

Buffy

[Boerseun]

True enough for the Ossetia situation - but what's the deal with threatening Poland with nukes?

 

It seems as if Putin (I'm also pinning it on his scrawny *** - Medvedev's a puppet) is out to perfectly justify the intended missile shield.

 

Which will force NATO to kick-start the Cold War's crazy military build-up once again. Which will drain whatever money the US have left after Iraq straight into oblivion. I actually think Russia is in a much better position right now that the States to pursue a Cold-War scale arms build-up.

 

Can it be that Putin is really planning on destroying America financially?

 

Can he really be this dumb?

 

Also - keep in mind that if he sinks the States, he destroys China as well. Without the American market, the Chinese dragon will turn out to be a meek and mild little gecko. So, two birds with one stone, and Russia will emerge as the only real superpower to be reckoned with.

 

Far-fetched, to be sure, but not impossible. Methinks Putin is about to cause some big shakes, over the next decade or so.

[Moontanman]

As usual Russia is showing just how paranoid they really are. During the cold war all the Russian paranoia was blamed on communism and the need for the communists to stop all possibility of invasion by having a shield of small satellite states around their border. In the old Soviet Empire they simply kept these small countries as part of the larger Soviet Union but now they are independent countries and the idea of an independent country on the border is driving the Russians to distraction. The possibility of a NATO country actually being just across the road is driving them over the edge. Russia desperately wants another buffer it can control against it's borders. It is no longer a political empire but it still wants to control it's borders by making them hundreds of miles wide as buffer countries. In other words Russia wants it's empire and the semblance of not being an empire too. Russia is not going to nuke anyone, empty threats to scare little countries and make big countries hesitate. The US is indeed bogged down in the middle east thanks to our wonderful intelligent neocon government but if indeed it became necessary to confront Russia I am sure the US would rise to the occasion if the situation really warranted it. (it would a stupid thing for either country to allow things to go that far and we all know that big countries never act stupid, so no worries :hyper:) I honestly think Russia is making a mistake to think they can go back to empire, even by proxy. These smaller countries want to be independent, decades of domination and economic stagnation caused by Russia during the cold war would be a bitter pill to swallow again. Russia will either come to it's senses or **** will hit the fan again in Europe. I don't think Russia learned anything in Afghanistan it cannot ignore when it wants to. If Russia tries to take on all of Europe in small bites it might succeed if the small countries stand back and allow themselves to be eaten one bite at a time but if they decide to choke Russia on it's own appetite we might see a real change in Europe come about, it will be a bloody change and it will have Earth shattering consequences but a change none the less.

[alexander]

What the Russians learned in Afghanistan that we apparently did not learn from Viet Nam

Oooh, oooh, ooh, let me guess, don't go into an armed conflict with the third world country, when another super power has economic prosperity and is willing to sponsor the opposition?

 

Well that and that there needs to be more communications between various branches of the millitary... That US finally learned in the first gulf war. Actually my friend got a PH in the circumstances where this "communication error" took place...

 

As usual Russia is showing just how paranoid they really are.

I digest :hyper:

Jokes aside, methinks you are only looking at this from one direction. There is a reason for Russia to be paranoid about this, just like there was a reason for Russia to be paranoid about Bush building the "missile defense shield" around russia's borders, namely putting a base up 50 miles from the Russian border, in Georgia, a year or so ago.

 

What you have to do is read between the lines, like this: US, Missiles, 50 Miles from the border.... It's even worse then the missile showcase in cuba, a couple of decades ago, and US was all paranoid about that, weren't they?....

 

It is no longer a political empire but it still wants to control it's borders by making them hundreds of miles wide as buffer countries.

Is that why the US in the last couple of years started to worry about Russia coming back to power and investing heavily into US industries, because they had a little too much free money floating around?

 

Russia is not going to nuke anyone

Ofcourse, they are not THAT stupid...

 

I honestly think Russia is making a mistake to think they can go back to empire

Well, yes and no, i think the reason you see such a mobilization of the russian forces is due to 2 reasons. One, they just don't like the current gov-t of georgia and want the guy out of the office. Two, they are scared shitless of their intelligence reports, and those say that more and more Islamic militant groups are crossing into the region every day, groups of up to 2000 people are taking over towns in the regions... It sounds a lot like Afghanistan and Chechniya, all over again; though with any luck, this time, without the US support.

[alexander]

Oh, another thing, on that retrofitting quote... I would not quite say that that is a nuclear arms race, not quite yet, anyways. Almost every large US ship has nukes on board, you sort of forgot to mention that :hyper: Russia's only now starting to catch up...

[Moontanman]

Oooh, oooh, ooh, let me guess, don't go into an armed conflict with the third world country, when another super power has economic prosperity and is willing to sponsor the opposition?

 

Pay back is indeed a *****.....

 

 

Well that and that there needs to be more communications between various branches of the millitary... That US finally learned in the first gulf war. Actually my friend got a PH in the circumstances where this "communication error" took place...

 

Well it has been a known axiom for a long time that Military intellegence is an oxymoron:hihi:

 

 

I digest :hihi:

Jokes aside, methinks you are only looking at this from one direction. There is a reason for Russia to be paranoid about this, just like there was a reason for Russia to be paranoid about Bush building the "missile defense shield" around russia's borders, namely putting a base up 50 miles from the Russian border, in Georgia, a year or so ago.

 

What you have to do is read between the lines, like this: US, Missiles, 50 Miles from the border.... It's even worse then the missile showcase in cuba, a couple of decades ago, and US was all paranoid about that, weren't they?....

 

Hmmm, lets see, first strike nuclear weapons 50 miles from the US border, a non nuclear missle defence system to shoot down missles from a rogue country launching a single or limited nuclear strike wich has been offered to protect the Russians as well? :naughty: I don't think it's a fair comparison do you?

 

Is that why the US in the last couple of years started to worry about Russia coming back to power and investing heavily into US industries, because they had a little too much free money floating around?

 

I haven't heard much worry about Russian investments, Arab/Muslim investments yes. Democratic capitalist societies do not worry about investments. Russia doesn't exactly open the flood gates for US investors and products do they? Only when on country is openly hostile is there a worry. Russia has the option of being allies with the USA and everyone else in the world. They are even offered membership in NATO, but no they have to be a big independent power and not cooperate but dominate the world. There is little reason for the Russians to fear the USA but lots of reasons for the Russians to fear the same people the USA fears. The religious fundamentalists and two bit dictators of the world are a far bigger danger to the first world than the USA and Russia are to each other. Cooperation makes far more sense than conflict. It's far to bad there isn't a another power that could lock the USA and Russian governments into a room and tell them not to come out until they kiss and make nice. So much of the problems of the world could be solved with just a little more cooperation and less competition. If the big three were a united front all the terrorists and other forces of chaos would be on the run instead of making everyone else fear and run from them.

 

Ofcourse, they are not THAT stupid...

 

Of course:shrug:

 

Well, yes and no, i think the reason you see such a mobilization of the russian forces is due to 2 reasons. One, they just don't like the current gov-t of georgia and want the guy out of the office. Two, they are scared shitless of their intelligence reports, and those say that more and more Islamic militant groups are crossing into the region every day, groups of up to 2000 people are taking over towns in the regions... It sounds a lot like Afghanistan and Chechniya, all over again; though with any luck, this time, without the US support.

 

Cooperating with the US would make those Islamic militants much less of a threat, at every turn both countries and to a lesser extent China do everything they can to undermine the other. Stupid, stupid , stupid, The US will almost certainly support Georgia, Russia doesn't have the market cornered on stupidity.

[alexander]

Hmmm, lets see, first strike nuclear weapons 50 miles from the US border, a non nuclear missle defence system to shoot down missles from a rogue country launching a single or limited nuclear strike wich has been offered to protect the Russians as well? I don't think it's a fair comparison do you?

Actually no, not really, not really fair, and you are not really correct either. First of all, offering to protect somebody is total bull, at that point it's who's controlling the systems that gets to call the shots, did you notice how quickly Bush's plans dwindled when Russia offered to put the same sytems in place on their side of the border, or to split the responsibility by splitting the sites into UN and Russia controlled? (i dunno if you heard of that part of the negotiations)

 

I dont think its a fair comparison, though it is not all that far fetched, first of all, today's nuclear missiles take forms that are small enough to use the same launchers as the anti missile missiles, tomahawks, and scud systems are small and fit into the description here. Also missiles carrying bio and chemical and biochemical weapons are usually really small, and really effective, and having a range of even a 1000 miles, they will be able to reach millions of people, so it's not really far-fetched, you gotta look through the good intentions, as well, and dont always trust what politicians say :naughty:

 

I haven't heard much worry about Russian investments

I have though... and people that talk about it the most are analytics from around the globe.

 

They are even offered membership in NATO, but no they have to be a big independent power and not cooperate but dominate the world.

please don't pass NATO or USA as the nice guys around the world, ok, or are you forgetting what NATO did in Serbia (Bosnia and Herzegovena)? And which country did the Serbs call to when their houses were pounded by the bombs with the NATO stamp, and their family was dying of starvation because someone cut all trade with the region?

 

Cooperation makes far more sense than conflict.

Now there is what i've been talking about all along...

 

Cooperating with the US would make those Islamic militants much less of a threat

Not really, at this point the islamic millitants that the CIA once trained are as much against the US, as they are against Russia and Georgia and South Ossetiya.

 

put quite simply, USAians seem to think they have witnessed what terrorism is because of Sep. 11, in reality, they only hear about terrorism when something big happens, Russia deals with terrorism on a day to day basis, bombs go off more in Russia then, i would have to guess, any other country of the world that are not currently in a conflict. It's almost sad, hearing the people that are exposed to that on a day to day basis talk about it.. like yeah, another jihadist locked himself and a family on the 5th floor of an apartment building and blew himself up... like eeh, whatever, it wasn't me, and its common, nobody cares...

 

I do seem to think that russia is either showcasing again, or they have some sort of a hidden agenda. Well, or, they just haven't been the main worry for a while, so they decided to do something to draw attention again...

 

i can't quite put my finger on it, but i think i am not hearing some story about this situation.... well, time to go read some press

 

The US will almost certainly support Georgia, Russia doesn't have the market cornered on stupidity

Ofcourse, just like they supported afghanistan, doing whatever it takes to undermine someone's economy.

[Michaelangelica]

Could this be areason?

After all, in the end, we still seem motivated by primitive animal emotions, drives and allegiances. Its just now we have bigger sticks made of metal.

 

Whatever the Russia's reason, the next question to answer is what is the US's Game plan?

Ankara lets military ships pass straits

Tbilisi :: Georgia | Aug 21, 4:42 PM | Technology News

Source: Press TV

 

Two US Navy ships and a US Coast Guard cutter and some German and Spanish warships carrying aid supplies are due to arrive to conflict-torn Georgia during this week, US and Turkish officials said ..

.

[alexander]

the next question to answer is what is the US's Game plan?

Forgetting that US signed the Missile Defense System contract with Poland?

[Michaelangelica]

Forgetting that US signed the Missile Defense System contract with Poland?

Yes and not just Poland- UK and other Euro/NATO States as well.

France has missile silos all over the countryside (I stumbled across one once)

Also USA is renovating old warheads at home and building more as well.

 

Russia has always historically been paranoid (with good reason) and these sort of actions of the USA are provocative in the least.

It is as provocative as Russia putting missile sites in Cuba.

[alexander]

Yeah, unfortunately Russian history makes them the way they are, that is they don't trust anyone outside of themselves. Life made them this way :confused: Just all the wars, invasions, and conflicts they got involved in, the hundreds of years of wars with various easter empires, hundreds of years of wars with Germans, the Poles trying to constanty overthrow the gov-t, occasional French conflicts, and wars with Britain, and the Turks, so forth this has been a problem for many years that has hardened russia's outlook on the outside neighbors...

[Boerseun]

That could be said about practically any European country you'd care to mention...

[Michaelangelica]

That could be said about practically any European country you'd care to mention...

Portugal ?

Spain?

Greece?

Italy?

Switzerland?

Sweden?

Denmark?

Turkey?

Malta?

Baltic states?

Russians have never really been a full member of the EC.

I feel sorry for their people. They have suffered so much for so long.

 

 

USSR or Russia has been invaded by everyone sine time immemorial.Chinese, Mongols, Japanese, Turks, French, Germans, French, Germans, Germans.

So why would you not be paranoid about the USA plonking an IBM 100Km from your border??

 

Read "Stalingrad" if you really want to understand their fear and paranoia.

Also probably the root causes of the "Cold War"

[freeztar]

The big question is: Would they really nuke Poland? What would be the consequences?

[Buffy]

Gotta love Dan Froomkin...

This is what it's come to. On Monday, President Bush issued a statement very sternly calling on Russian leaders not to recognize the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries.

 

Within hours, the Russians went ahead and did it anyway.

 

So on Tuesday, out came another statement, in which Bush very sternly told the Russian leaders they shouldn't have.

 

What explains Bush's manifest lack of leverage? Russia, fat on oil profits, is clearly intent on reasserting its sphere of influence, and an act of provocation by Georgia gave them just the excuse they were looking for. But there's something almost personal about the way Russia is flouting Bush's warnings. Is it because of all those times Bush poked the bear? Or is it because our military is otherwise occupied? Is it because Bush has squandered America's moral authority? Or is just because he's a lame duck? Maybe it's on account of Bush's demeaning nickname for Vladimir Putin. Take your pick.

"Pooty-Poot" (the nickname referenced above) sure knows when he's holding a royal flush, and he's letting Mr. Shrub suffer for his indiscretions and incuriosity...

 

People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power, :hyper:

Buffy

[alexander]

That could be said about practically any European country you'd care to mention...

Actually no it can not, not to the extent that Russia has seen it. Also you have to remember the ancestoral inherritance of the russian people as a whole.

 

So why do i disagree with you, even though i always say Boerseun is the man. This has partly to do with the fact that i specialize in russian history, i also enjoy and read about european history, to be able to relate and contrast these two societies, and they were so vastly different, they should be considered as such. Europe has always been at war, and that is a fact, from the roman empire, to the events in the 40s it is fair to say that europe has seen its fair share of conflict. It has taught them to trust some allies, to never underestimate their enemy, to invest into war technology, and to progress. These are not all bad things, not at all, it drove europe to industrialize, and join together in one giant economic entity, and everyone is always eager to try new things.

 

Russia was different, waay different, and here are a few things to remember. It is a very, very conservative country rather it is filled with very conservative people. The country was, for many hundreds of years, a set of city-states, each governed by a knyaz', with very little, to no central management. The country was plagued by war, from Tatar-Mongols, who reaked havoc in Russia for over 300 years. At the same time countless attempts to conquer Russian regions, such as that of Kiev region, were attempted by both German and Polish forces. Then Russia united, and they were still not in the clear, continuing wars with the ottoman empire, Sweden, Germany, Finland, Polland (which at some point tried to set up a coup in Russia, overthrow the tzar and put their own queen on the throne). And all this closed Russia more and more, less and less people wanted to change their ways, or be influenced by the outside. Peter made the first big stride towards the west, but even then Russia was a 100 years back from the other countries, and it continued and continues to this day. You gotta remember here, Britain industrialized in the late 1700ds, France followed close by in 1795, Germany followed in the second wave of it 1870, russia didn't start industrializing till WWI and was still a huge mix of industrial and feudal/farming mix until past WWII. This, even in today's world, is reflected in how people from outside are viewed in Russian people's views of people from other countries, while todays population is used to them, and tolerate, they are still viewed and concerned about, though not in a feared way, but certainly not in a very trusting way either....

 

hope that kind of explains my thought...