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Predicting The Future


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#1 Deepwater6

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 01:24 PM

Why do we have so much trouble predicting our technological future? Somewhere around a hundred and fifty years ago, give or take a decade, we rode horses and wagons for transportation. I highly doubt the thought of space shuttles or ISS's would even enter the realm of peoples imagination back then. Today we understand how ignorant we were of the speed and dynamics in which our technological advances did transpire.

 

Is the same thing occurring to us now? What would be the equivalent of going from horseback to space stations from this point out to the next 150 years or so? If we mastered fusion energy? Found a way to achieve FTL travel for intergalactic transportation? Are we as ignorant of our abilities as we were a little more than a century ago? 

 

As we build ever smarter computers that hold the promise of compounding intelligence again and again, what technology is hidden from our imagination? And what things would you think must come about to match or out-do our advances of the last 100+ yrs.? 



#2 ThatDogCalledDean

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 10:42 AM

There are a lot of factors to take into account, yes there are laws such as moore's law which can give us an indication.

 

However, with the amount of companies/organisations developing their own product which can swing the evolution of technology is a new direction. 

 

This makes it hard to predict.  


Edited by ThatDogCalledDean, 09 May 2017 - 10:42 AM.


#3 billvon

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 04:05 PM

Why do we have so much trouble predicting our technological future? Somewhere around a hundred and fifty years ago, give or take a decade, we rode horses and wagons for transportation. I highly doubt the thought of space shuttles or ISS's would even enter the realm of peoples imagination back then.

The first science fiction story about space stations was written about 150 years ago - "The Brick Moon."  Indian literature from centuries ago talked about the Vimana flying machine, able to travel to space and back.  So I don't think we have too much trouble imagining technological futures.  It's hard, of course, to be very accurate the further something is in the future.

Is the same thing occurring to us now? What would be the equivalent of going from horseback to space stations from this point out to the next 150 years or so? If we mastered fusion energy? Found a way to achieve FTL travel for intergalactic transportation? Are we as ignorant of our abilities as we were a little more than a century ago?

 

I think we have no shortage of predictions - from FTL to wormholes to the Matrix to the Epstein drive to gray goo.  It's just knowing which is more likely that's hard.