Can Overpopulation Fix Itself?

[Eclipse Now]

Hey, what do you know? We agree totally! :eek_big:

 

:)

 

Does this herald a change in the alignment of the planets or something? I feel a "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure" aligning of nature and humanity growing out into a world peace movement... Maybe 2010 will see North Korea become a democracy finally! ;)

 

Yep, I'm with you on that one. I'd like to see Africa leapfrog past the dirty fossil fuels as well, and head straight into baseload renewables or even Gen3 nuclear.** (See below).

 

Fresh water, health, education, and employment opportunities are the key, especially education for women. Remember, every 3 years a woman is educated = about 1 less child! (According to a UN population study).

 

And imagine all that human potential of 800 million Africans living a modern highly green recyclable, renewable lifestyle in eco-cities. Imagine their sheer contribution to human knowledge if they could just be freed from the cycles of poverty and war. Imagine advances in all the sciences and engineering and music and culture and sport... and computer software and everything! 800 million Africans out of poverty and contributing to the world!

 

Bring on the day...!

 

**(Gen3 nuclear sounds great as it can eat nuclear waste from previous reactors. In theory we could run the whole world's power supply for 700 years on just the nuclear waste from older reactors! Also 'burning' the older waste, now a nuclear fuel for breeder reactors, makes the reburnt waste into a super-hot waste that is only 10% of the original mass and burns itself back to safe levels within just 500 years!)

[Michaelangelica]

 

The concept of Earth, with a maximum carrying capacity. The idea that sustainable development creates less waste, the view of the "thin veil of atmosphere" is an outer space perspective. The construct of the natural balance, for CO₂ or thermal balance ignores an ever changing exchange, a constant, immensely chaotic and complex dynamic process with a fantasy of a natural balance in perfect set or an out of control tumble toward catastrophe.

 

The fragile speck of rock called Earth is the biggest planet we've ever visited. 70,000 years ago, the climate was different, 70,000 years from now, there will be change. More billions of people, more brains and eyes working on progress, will give us a more realistic view.

Is this babble supposed to make sense?

[Michaelangelica]

Here in Europe, population is falling: Google - public data

 

It doesn't seem to be a problem we need to fix, here.

Like most of your "facts' dubious to say the least

wiki-

Figures for the population of Europe vary according to which definition of European boundaries is used.

The population within the standard physical geographical boundaries was 825 million in 2005 according the United Nations. In 2009 the population is 831.4 million, using a definition which includes the whole of the transcontinental countries of Russia and Turkey.

The increase in the population of France was 211,000 alone

 

28 May 2009 ... UK population grew by a staggering 434700 in 2007, an increase .... country in Europe (the EU 15) after the Netherlands and Belgium, ...

Optimum Population Trust: Too many people in the UK

According to ONS analysis, the number of people living in England as a whole will increase by 12.7 per cent, from 50,093,100 in 2004 to 56,456,600 in 2029. The estimates are based on the assumption that current population trends continue for the next 20 years.

London leads the way in UK population increase - This Britain, UK - The Independent

 

Maybe it is just the Germans who have lost interest in sex?

[BrianG]

Hey, what do you know? We agree totally! :eek_big:

 

:)

 

Does this herald a change in the alignment of the planets or something? I feel a "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure" aligning of nature and humanity growing out into a world peace movement... Maybe 2010 will see North Korea become a democracy finally! ;)

 

Yep, I'm with you on that one. I'd like to see Africa leapfrog past the dirty fossil fuels as well, and head straight into baseload renewables or even Gen3 nuclear.** (See below).

 

Fresh water, health, education, and employment opportunities are the key, especially education for women. Remember, every 3 years a woman is educated = about 1 less child! (According to a UN population study).

 

And imagine all that human potential of 800 million Africans living a modern highly green recyclable, renewable lifestyle in eco-cities. Imagine their sheer contribution to human knowledge if they could just be freed from the cycles of poverty and war. Imagine advances in all the sciences and engineering and music and culture and sport... and computer software and everything! 800 million Africans out of poverty and contributing to the world!

 

Bring on the day...!

...

 

I agree with you but I am a little bit worried that our energy policy might hobble Africa, more than help them leapfrog forward. If "baseload renewables" aren't efficient enough to compete with dirty fossil fuels in the market, Africa will have to follow in our footsteps and the best we can do is help them deal with the consequences.

 

I would like to see Africa use more nuclear power as it expands it's energy supply.

[Eclipse Now]

Michaelangelica

Whatever the actual population figures in certain European countries, isn't it a general rule that first world countries would be 'roughly' stable IF they didn't all have ridiculously high immigration policies? (And I'm not taking a racist stance here but am merely talking IPAT).

[BrianG]

I understand without immigration, Europe is facing a population decline: All 10 million Europeans: demographic collapse.

[Eclipse Now]

Their use of the word "Collapse" is a bit melodramatic.

 

A 95% dieoff event, now that is a Collapse. But calling a European population decline of 10 million out of 825 million a "collapse" is a bit melodramatic... when it is only about 1.2%? Try the Black Death which killed quarter to half of Europe... the final statistics are just not known.

 

Pulitzer Prize winner Jared Diamond (who won the Pulitzer for "Guns, Germs, and Steel" (about the rise of civilisation) also wrote the other side of the story of civilisation, "Collapse". Try reading that for some insights into a real collapse, and the very real dangers we face as a global community approaching all sorts of challenging natural limits. Most ancient societies failed when they approached these limits.

 

 

The difference this time is that as the global population continues to increase by about 75 million a year, we are approaching these limits on a global scale. The dangers are truly staggering to people who have open eyes to this material, especially as this time we are armed with nukes.

 

Yet also the difference this time is we have a global scientific enterprise and the modern scientific method, and a global media network and we are almost at a point of developing a global governance and legislative framework that could help solve these problems. So it is the ultimate race between staggeringly dangerous environmental erosion, loss of topsoil, loss of freshwater, peak oil, gas, and peak coal (between 2010 and 2048), etc... and the race between more positive trends in ecocity design, energy efficiency, biofarming with biochar, closed nutrient cycles not leaking all our NPK out to sea, etc.

 

Demographic population trends are too slow to solve the massive problems we'll face in the next 40 years. So I for one am hoping in the changes in T in IPAT... that Technology will just have to fix this or billions will die.

 

I include subjects like Ecocity design and new post-oil energy efficient cultural behaviours like bike-riding and living more locally to work, school, shops and play under T as well, as in our "Technology" or accumulated knowledge and behaviours for life. So rediscovering old "technologies" can be just as important as all the futuristic one's well need as well, and maybe the old ones will make society more humane in scale?

 

EG: The pedapod. Yep, it's a modern day rickshaw!

 

[maikeru]

I think more people should read Diamond's Collapse and soak up the lessons therein. I asked him a question when he once gave a guest lecture at my old uni. Smart fellow.

[Eclipse Now]

I agree with you but I am a little bit worried that our energy policy might hobble Africa, more than help them leapfrog forward. If "baseload renewables" aren't efficient enough to compete with dirty fossil fuels in the market, Africa will have to follow in our footsteps and the best we can do is help them deal with the consequences.

See the peak oil / fossil fuels thread for more evidence that Africa would be UTTERLY FOOLISH to get all its energy and transport and agricultural systems addicted to fossil fuels just when these fuels are about to peak and triple / quadruple in price and even face rationing!

 

Also, the most dire predictions for global warming are that Africa will probably be hurt the most.

 

So both for energy security AND global warming, I'd like to see Africa move to ANYTHING that's not fossil fools and especially not oil!

[Michaelangelica]

Michaelangelica

Whatever the actual population figures in certain European countries, isn't it a general rule that first world countries would be 'roughly' stable IF they didn't all have ridiculously high immigration policies? (And I'm not taking a racist stance here but am merely talking IPAT).

What do you call "ridiculously high" mostly i see it as a drop in the bucket compared to total world population. Most people seem to stay in the country they were born in.

 

This might provide some food for discussion (my formatting)

• 50 years ago, the world population was below 3 billion.
  
• It's more than doubled since then to 6.7 billion today
  
• and it's projected to reach 9 billion by 2050. By then it will be in Asia, not Europe nor the US, where the world's physical and intellectual capitals are concentrated.
  
• In 1950, Europe had three times Africa's population.
  
• In 2050, Africa will have three time's Europe's population. And it's there that the bottom billion are increasingly concentrated, trapped in poverty.
  

Controlling the future - Science Show - 2 January 2010

 

The question put, by this thread was, "Will overpopulation fix it self because we will have more people to think about and provide solutions to our problems?"

The error with this thinking is, most of the new Citizens of Earth will be hot, hungry, thirsty and ill- educated. Not the recipe for problem solving; although it might get the developed world/people off its collective arse, if they were scared enough..

[BrianG]

See the peak oil / fossil fuels thread for more evidence that Africa would be UTTERLY FOOLISH to get all its energy and transport and agricultural systems addicted to fossil fuels just when these fuels are about to peak and triple / quadruple in price and even face rationing!

 

Also, the most dire predictions for global warming are that Africa will probably be hurt the most.

 

So both for energy security AND global warming, I'd like to see Africa move to ANYTHING that's not fossil fools and especially not oil!

 

A discussion isn't evidence, Africa shouldn't let anyone decide how they should increase stamdards of living, except residents. Africa has more than 50 billion tons of proven coal reserves, Africa must exploit coal reserves-China Mining , they need energy development now, not later on when wind and solar become competitive with fossil fuel.

[Eclipse Now]

Hey, thanks Michaelangelica, I usually try to catch the Science Show and have downloaded that podcast to listen to while I hang out the washing!

 

It's going to be HOT in Sydney today. :eek_big: OK where you are?

 

Now, BrianG, Africa should NOT build all those coal plants and please don't turn this thread into yet another global warming Denialist thread. I've modded you down for trolling.

 

Africa IS likely to be one of the worst effected continents by global warming, particularly because of their poverty. I thought this was self-evident. Far from just asserting my opinion without linking to verifiable source documents (as you always fail to do), I gave you the benefit of a doubt and just assumed you knew what I was talking about. :rolleyes:

 

Floods are also increasing in frequency and intensity. Floods contaminate freshwater supplies, heighten the risk of water-borne diseases, and create breeding grounds for disease-carrying insects such as mosquitoes. They also cause drownings and physical injuries, damage homes and disrupt the supply of medical and health services.

 

Rising temperatures and variable precipitation are likely to decrease the production of staple foods in many of the poorest regions – by up to 50% by 2020 in some African countries4. This will increase the prevalence of malnutrition and undernutrition, which currently cause 3.5 million deaths every year.

WHO | Climate change and health

 

Costs to Africa for renewables / nuclear?

If Africa's political accountability and corruption investigation mechanisms were to significantly increase as the AU develops more efficient governance protocols, they'd have more than enough money to subsidise the increasingly shrinking difference in cost between coal and wind/solar/Gen3 nuclear.

 

Governance in Africa seems to be the key to their development, not coal!

 

Higher electricity costs does not mean the end of civilisation! Japan pays about double the electricity costs that the average Australian pays, but they have hardly collapsed back to the stone age!

 

Indeed, in the USA wind is already cost-competitive with coal.

“The cost of wind-generated electricity has fallen from 38¢ per kilowatt-hour in the early 1980s to 4¢ to 6¢ today, offering an almost endless supply of cheap energy.”

Plan B Updates - 52: Wind Energy Demand Booming - Cost Dropping Below Conventional Sources Marks Key Milestone in ... | EPI

 

 

Indeed, rather than require a massive infrastructure development such as a coal-fired power station to supply power to a whole town, renewables might enable a more bit-by-bit development that African villages can afford, and do themselves and bring profits back into their own village rather than to greedy multinationals sending the profits, sometimes overseas!

 

EG:

 

 

Indeed, they are already doing it village by village! They are so easy to put up that this teenager is doing it by himself!

William Kamkwamba (born August 5, 1987) is a Malawian secondary school student and inventor. He gained fame in his country when, in 2002, he built a windmill, to power a few electrical appliances in his family's house in Masitala, using blue gum trees, bicycle parts, and materials collected in a local scrapyard. Since then, he has built a solar-powered water pump that supplies the first drinking water in his village, and two other windmills (the tallest standing at 39 feet) and is planning two more, including one in Lilongwe.

It might not seem a lot to you, but this kid is creating the difference between being able to study at night or not, do a few extra hours work at night with light, run a few appliances... which can be all the difference between getting ahead or being stuck in poverty!

William Kamkwamba - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

So far from coal being required to get ahead, I think renewables offer more security for local jobs, built from local materials, and benefiting the local community not some overseas corporation.

 

Energy efficiency better than sheer energy consumption

But further than that, if Africa had a REAL African Union Federal Government, they could mandate energy efficiency standards that would increase the profitability and cost-savings of the entire continent's energy systems. Consider how wasteful the USA is currently.

 

Electricity use is falling partly because of gains in efficiency. The potential for further cuts is evident in the wide variation in energy efficiency among states. The Rocky Mountain Institute calculates that if the 40 least-efficient states were to reach the electrical efficiency of the 10 most-efficient ones, national electricity use would be reduced by one third. This would allow the equivalent of 62 percent of the country's 617 coal-fired power plants to be closed.

 

They should mandate New Urbanism / Ecocities / Earthship communities and mass-transit as the most effective way to get off oil fast, but where cars are absolutley necessary by nature of the profession (doctors and tradespeople making house-calls) they should be electric in a Better Place battery swap program.

 

But the big gains in fuel efficiency will come with the shift to plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars. Not only are electric motors three times more efficient than gasoline engines, but they also enable cars to run on wind power at a gasoline-equivalent cost of 75¢ a gallon. Almost every major car maker will soon be selling plug-in hybrids, electric cars, or both.

Plan B Updates - 83: U.S. Headed for Massive Decline in Carbon Emissions | EPI

[A23]

I read that population was following a chaotic behavior, it cannot grow only, not only natural death, but overpopulation leads to wars and starving.

 

So it should have to go up and down, in an unknown way.

 

To try to avoid overpopulation, the protection and antiovulation-pills, even sterilizing pills for him, were made, but still ($), this up/down I think will never be fixed.

[Eclipse Now]

I hope we're not going to be stuck in this growth and then ecological collapse cycle... we're smarter than that!

 

Also, a little economic security guaranteed in retirement, and improvements in health care (so that your babies and children are more likely to survive), both lead to having less children. 3rd world countries can think of children as some sort of 'superannuation' package, as they are the only people you can hope to raise to look after you in your old age.

 

Healthier babies and children counter-intuitively means less population growth, because those people in 3rd world countries can be more assured that the kids they do have will survive.

 

It's a long and complex social story, but basically, as countries develop and become "modern" population growth heads into decline. It's called the demographic transition, and it is my hope that a modern, prosperous, united African Federation would see population rates stabilise in Africa as the various ecological and technological crisis were also stabilised.

 

It's called the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition

The Demographic transition model (DTM) is a model used to represent the process of explaining the transformation of countries from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson [1] of prior observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years.

 

Most developed countries are beyond stage three of the model; the majority of developing countries are in stage 2 or stage 3. The model was based on the changes seen in Europe so these countries follow the DTM relatively well. Many developing countries have moved into stage 3. The major (relative) exceptions are some poor countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are poor or affected by government policy or civil strife, notably Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Yemen and Afghanistan.[2]

 

Note that this model predicts ever decreasing fertility rates, whereas recent data shows that after a certain level of development the fertility increases again [3].

[A23]

Sometimes people are taught (practically/theoretically) to being used to other practices than reproductive acts, some say this is shame, fear and perversion.

[Moontanman]

Sometimes people are taught (practically/theoretically) to being used to other practices than reproductive acts, some say this is shame, fear and perversion.

 

Then again most say it's normal human sexuality. Almost none of the sex acts between humans is meant to be reproductive, most sex is recreational bonding between individuals and has no reproductive intent.

[A23]

Yes living creature like to play together, but they could also all be maintained separated, for security reasons.(for example sometimes parents have to be separated from their children, for non adequate behavior)