Can Ethanol ever Comletely replace petroleum based fuels?

[ronthepon]

Hey people, long time.

 

Anyway, I happen to be doing a project on analyzing the viability of ethanol as a energy carrier and a replacement fuel.

 

Having checked out a big deal on where ethanol production is flawed, and where it has place for improvement, I'd come to the conclusion that ethanol has a bright-er future.

 

I'd come to believe that ethanol might actually get cheaper than petrolem at a point of time, and replace it completely. Then came a big problem:

 

We use ~76 million barrels of gasoline per day.

 

Why is that a problem? Because I've come to believe that (for cellulosic ethanol) a ton of biomass yeilds a few gallons.(link)Check out Germany's achievement. We probably wont multiply that by ten or something even in the future.

 

Switchgrass, gives us like 11-12 tonnes of biomass per year per acre on an average. So we need like...(*grabbing calculator) uh... 2-3000 million acres of land area to fulfill the complete replacement scenario. Remember that the total land surface area is like 36000 million acres. We'd be needing like 8% of the total land area for switchgrass or Miscanthus giganteus. Dunno if it'll be available easily. EDIT: Oh and did I forget to mention? Total cultivated land is like 12% of the land area.

 

The waste may take care of around 300-400 million barrels of the around 30,000 million barrels that we'll need worldwide per year. (My calculation. Seem flawed to me, Please correct me)

 

Does anyone have any definite data on what is the actual scale of possible ethanol production? (throw in 400,000 acres of switchgrass cultivated areas in the US if nessecary).

[Ganoderma]

Switchgrass, gives us like 11-12 tonnes of biomass per year per acre on an average. So we need like...(*grabbing calculator) uh... 2-3000 million acres of land area to fulfill the complete replacement scenario. Remember that the total land surface area is like 36000 million acres. We'd be needing like 8% of the total land area for switchgrass or Miscanthus giganteus. Dunno if it'll be available easily. EDIT: Oh and did I forget to mention? Total cultivated land is like 12% of the land area.

 

that's one reason i think it will never happen....oil is underground and takes little space to obtain.

 

honestly, i don't think combustion energy is the way to go ;)

[ronthepon]

Comustion of ethanol ain't all that bad. The carbon-di-oxide that is released comes from atmospheric CO2 in the first case. It recycling CO2 and using solar energy. Still, ethanol can be used in fuel cells.

[Ganoderma]

i am not so much thinking of pollution. i am thinking more of realistic availability and usability.

 

I have to admit, i am one of the electricity people. I think in terms of convertibility. how many things can we use with electricity? how many of the those same things can we use with combustion type energies (not counting burning for electricity)?

 

everything fire moves, so can electricity...but electricity can do more, and is in many cases safer and more user friendly (how many people can fix their toaster compared to fix their lawnmower)...maybe that one is stretching it a bit.

 

also so many things we can gather electricity from: Sun, wind, rain, water, GRAVITY*** etc....."combustion energies" are often limited in availability (gas) OR require large land mass and man power to produce and *seem* to have more environmental impacts than electrical sources.

[Eclipse Now]

In all humility I submit my ethanol page. I'm not a scientist, but have more of an arts/argument/history/welfare brain. :phones:

 

So I've collected the material on my page that refers to some fairly convincing arguments and data.

Eclipse Now: Biodfuels, biodiesel and ethanol

 

The problem is one of scale. I'm convinced that biofuels will play an important part in our post-oil world, but only a niche. Have you looked at the ERoEI of the various fuels? It's not just the $ economics, but the energy economics.

 

This 12 minute video on "Energy Budgetting" or ERoEI is THE most important concept to get one's head around when dealing with biofuel issues, because many of them are not actually "sources" of energy. (They take so much energy to grow and process that they're basically fossil fuels in disguise anyway).

 

Crash Course Chapter 17b: Energy Budgeting | Chris Martenson

 

I'm also a fan of electricity, but not cars. I think the SAFEST way we can negotiate peak oil and global warming is to:-

1. Rezone our cities and start building around New Urbanism

2. RAIL (in all it's forms, intercity electric trains, and intra-city trolley buses and trams)

3. Refuel on renewable electricity.

(There are other "Radical R's" on my site, but that will do for now).

 

Maybe I have those around back to front. Apparently if one builds a good rail system, New Urbanism automatically creeps in around the rail. It will take a generation, but with compounding benefits economically, socially, and environmentally. People living in walking distance communities that are just plain TRENDY tend to talk to each other, be fitter (they walk and cycle), and be less stressed.

 

However, if we HAVE to have some cars, I think EV's are the way to go... but many of the "rare earths" our modern electronics and batteries rely on are also about to be used up.

 

 

The latest news on biofuels can be found at:

Biofuels | Energy Bulletin

 

Global Public Media | Public Service Broadcasting For A Post Carbon World

 

Cheers, and let me know what you think about the sound bytes I've collected on my summary page.

[ronthepon]

Direct Ethanol Fuel Cells

 

Electricity can be generated without actually burning ethanol.

 

Ethanol is easier to store and transport to random places than bare electricity.

 

But that's moving away from the topic. Anyway, I've checked and rechecked. We need to devote around 5-13% of our total land surface area to ethanol if it is to replace petroleum for fuel.

What I do note is that due to the carbon sequestering and habitat providing abilities of say- switchgrass, or miscanthus(the afro-eur-asian candidate) we can sacrifice pastures and grassland area.

 

What do you think about growing these plants in places where no farming has ever done earlier. I.e. forest and pastures?

[ronthepon]

In all humility I submit my ethanol page. I'm not a scientist, but have more of an arts/argument/history/welfare brain. :phones:

 

So I've collected the material on my page that refers to some fairly convincing arguments and data.

Eclipse Now: Biodfuels, biodiesel and ethanol

I like the page. In my study of the matter, I've come to believe that corn or sugarcane aren't as efficient in land usage. (which I think will eventually be the limiting factor)

Having done considerable internet digging and research, the conclusion has been: Cellulosic ethanol is the way to go. Of course, cellulases must be made cheap. (Deja-vu)

 

#2 Yes food to fuel is criminal (I'm assuming it is, so we can overcome the problem) so we do garbage and indigestible fibre to fuel.

 

It can be BAD for Global Warming!

Cellulosic ethanol should in principle, derive all it's carbon from the atmosphere! Voila, no nett CO2 release.

 

The problem is one of scale. I'm convinced that biofuels will play an important part in our post-oil world, but only a niche. Have you looked at the ERoEI of the various fuels? It's not just the $ economics, but the energy economics.

 

This 12 minute video on "Energy Budgetting" or ERoEI is THE most important concept to get one's head around when dealing with biofuel issues, because many of them are not actually "sources" of energy. (They take so much energy to grow and process that they're basically fossil fuels in disguise anyway).

 

Crash Course Chapter 17b: Energy Budgeting | Chris Martenson

Ethanol, and for that matter any biofuel, is merely a means to store solar energy until we burn it away. If we reduce energy input to a minimum (what I've been focussing on to achieve) we make it an ultra simple and biological solar energy harvesting system.

 

The solar panels are plants, BTW.

 

The rest of it is pretty much beyond my scope. othr than inclusion of fuel cells and FFV technology in vehicles, anyway.

[Eclipse Now]

Sugar cane has a rumoured ERoEI of about 6:1 which is better than corn's 1:1. There is no scientific or ecological reason to turn corn into fuel.

 

However, the reason some biofuels can be "bad" for global warming is quite simple: forest clearing for more fuel-lands. :phones: The old growth forest is far more effective at soaking up Co2 than the hypothetical displacement of fossil fuel burning. If the wrong crops are grown, it still takes energy to suck Nitrogen out of the air and turn it into fertilizer, and mine and process and then transport and distribute the Phosphorus and Potassium as well. And Fertilizing the crop is only part of the problem, then there's pumping water, plowing, planting, reaping, threshing, and finally fermenting or cooking up the biomass.

 

Some biofuels can serve dual purposes: feed fertiliser into various fast growing grasses and other types of 'weedy' crops and we get our sewerage cleaned, some fuel, and if we process the pulp just right fertilizer! It breaks the one way nutrient cycle we are currently using which is sending all our phosphorus out to see.

 

Lastly, my favourite: Biochar. Words cannot tell you how much I love this process. It's not just one product, but a whole integrated process of systems thinking that is beautiful.

Eclipse Now: Replenish the soil

 

Combine it with some of the bio-farming techniques like grazing cattle on a field for 5 years and then getting 3 years of crops out of it "for free" (no energy intensive fertilizer inputs), and we have a winner! (See "The Omnivore's dilemma" book for more on these integrated farming methods... I haven't actually read that one yet but hear a lot of good stuff about it.)

[ronthepon]

However, the reason some biofuels can be "bad" for global warming is quite simple: forest clearing for more fuel-lands. :phones: The old growth forest is far more effective at soaking up Co2 than the hypothetical displacement of fossil fuel burning.

Do you have any data on to what extent forest growth is more efficient? Any definitive source? I'd need it to figure what degree of compromises might be required.

[ronthepon]

I notice the biochar technique also involved drawing energy deposits out of biomass. However, we might not be able to find enough biomass to satisfy all out fuel needs on a yearly basis.

 

And that happens to be the goal I'm looking at. Perhaps growing easy-to-grow-biomass may supply enough, but we need to be sure that the fuel we are producing is:

 

1. Easily usable

2. Highly efficient in production

 

An improved and optimized ethanol producing system happens to satisfy both of these.

 

Look at me, I'm sounding like a salesman. I have spent a good deal of time looking at the options and developing a compiled methodology on what should be done for efficient ethanol production.

[Eclipse Now]

Ethanol is anything but.

 

It is highly corrosive, does not pump down existing pipes, and is so corrosive that it needs specially designed train carriages to take from where we grow the stuff to where we (the majority of the population) burn the stuff.

 

As for forests, check out:

Monbiot.com Worse Than Fossil Fuel

 

Don't forget that biodiversity is at stake here. Extinction is forever. Growing palm oil in Indonesia is leading to an absolutely reprehensible ecological catastrophe as forests retreat, Orangutans disappear and biodiversity vanishes.

 

The ONLY liquid fuel I'm aware of that could potentially scale up is the algae method mentioned on my page, but that is 40 thousand square miles of high-tech algae greenhouse farm to satisfy just America's oil needs. Advantage? It grows in sewerage waste and can be grown in the deserts, in urban areas closer to where we use the fuel, or on other wastelands. The disadvantage? We should have started 20 years ago and we are within 5 to 10 years of oil production starting a permanent 5% per annum decline.

 

That will make today's economic crisis look like a dress-rehearsal.

[ronthepon]

Could you give more data about the corrosiveness of ethanol? And about the algae method? What does it produce?

 

Give me a link of the content on your site?

[Eclipse Now]

First of all, I admit to not really understanding a lot of the chemical processes they describe below, but basically get the clear message that Ethanol is not really compatible with the current piping system because it "rusts and corrodes stuff".

 

Then there's the problem of land resource to grow it all. I can ONLY support non-farmland, marginal lands, and non-biodiversity affecting badlands.

 

In the near term, it is likely that most of the projected increase in shipments of ethanol to terminals will be handled by tanker truck and rail tank car as opposed to pipelines. Except for a few proprietary pipelines, the refined product pipeline operators do not ship ethanol in their systems.

 

Wider use of pipelines to transport ethanol is problematic for several reasons. It means addressing ethanol’s water affinity problem (ethanol is water soluble meaning it absorbs water). Because water accumulation in pipelines is a normal occurrence (in most cases water enters the system through terminal and refinery tank roofs or can be dissolved in fuels during refinery processes), introducing ethanol into a pipeline risks rendering it unusable as a transportation fuel.

 

The second challenge to transporting ethanol by pipeline is the need to address corrosion issues. Ethanol-related corrosion problems can result from how ethanol behaves in the pipe. There is some evidence that ethanol in high concentrations can lead to various forms of corrosion including internal stress corrosion cracking, which is very hard to detect. This damage may be accelerated at weld joints or “hard spots” where the steel metallurgy has been altered.

 

While it may be technically possible to address issues relating to transporting ethanol via pipeline, significant investments in new and modified facilities and operational practices would be necessary.

 

While oil pipeline operators search for ways to address the challenges of transporting ethanol blended products, they will continue to provide the most efficient, reliable and safest means of transporting fuel for your daily life.

 

In The Pipe: Increased Ethanol Use Creates Challenges

 

Alcohol fuel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Methanol and ethanol contains soluble and insoluble contaminants [3]. These soluble contaminants, halide ions such as chloride ions, has a large effect on the corrosivity of alcohol fuels. Halide ions increase corrosion in two ways; they chemically attack passivating oxide films on several metals causing piting corrosion, and they increase the conductivity of the fuel. Increased electrical conductivity promotes electrical, galvanic and ordinary corrosion in the fuel system. Soluble contaminants such as aluminum hydroxide, itself a product of corrosion by halide ions, clogs the fuel system over time. To prevent corrosion the fuel system must be made of suitable materials, electrical wires must be properly insulated and the fuel level sensor must be of pulse and hold type (or similar). In addition, high quality alcohol should have a low concentration of contaminants and have a suitable corrosion inhibitor added.

 

Methanol and ethanol is also incompatible with some polymers. The alcohol is solved by the polymers causing swelling, and over time the oxygen breaks down the carbon-carbon bonds in the polymer causing a reduction in tensile strength. For the past few decades though, most cars have been designed to tolerate up to 10% ethanol (E10) without problem. This include both fuel system compatibility and lambda compensation of fuel delivery with fuel injection engines featuring closed loop lambda control. In some engines ethanol may degrade some compositions of plastic or rubber fuel delivery components designed for conventional petrol, and also be unable to lambda compensate the fuel properly.[citation needed]

 

"FlexFuel" vehicles have upgraded fuel system and engine components which are designed for long life using E85 or M85, and the ECU can adapt to any fuel blend between gasoline and E85 or M85. Typical upgrades include modifications to: fuel tanks, fuel tank electrical wiring, fuel pumps, fuel filters, fuel lines, filler tubes, fuel level sensors, fuel injectors, seals, fuel rails, fuel pressure regulators, valve seats and inlet valves. The cost of this E85 upgrade to a modern engine is inexpensive and is less than $100[citation needed]. "Total Flex" Autos destined for the Brazilian market can use E100 (100% Ethanol).

 

 

However, look at the uses of algae!

Algae - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Everything from jet fuel to car fuel to fertilizer to plastics to nutrition supplement, and we can grow it in these plastic sheets from waste water. (The sheets save the massive pest invasion and water loss issues of pond-grown algae).

 

 

Algaculture - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Valcent Products Inc,. - High Density Vertical Bioreactor - Mon Nov 3, 2008

 

 

However, again... it's too little too late. I don't know what our grandchildren will be doing for transportation energy, and they might have vast deserts processing thousands of km's of this algae in our sewerage, with vast solar arrays providing the electricity to pump all the wastewater in and the fuel back out again. I don't know... that's generations away. What I WOULD like to know is why the governments of the world are refusing to look at the peak oil question, especially when I've briefed some of our own politicians and know from other activist friends that EVERY politician in Australia has been briefed!

 

We ARE simply going to hit the peak of oil production in the next 5 to 10 years, and it will simply dwarf todays' economic news. See my sig. ;-)

[ronthepon]

You're a real gem, Eclipse Now, Thanks for the info.

 

I must admit that currently an agenda pusher, and will not rest till I compile all the problems and their solutions relating to ethanol as a dominating fuel.

 

I'll be more open a little later, however. (After I've either finished with ethanol's list or hit upon insurmountable obstacles. And given my presentation at my univ.)

 

Anyway, I note that:-

 

1.

algae may prove to be an excellent source of cellulose (or biomass for ethanol production)

The advantages of being grown in the water are simply too brilliant. They might reduce the stress on land quite significantly.

Unformed thoughts have begun to grow in my mind about offshore cordoned off areas where algae could be grown. (Did I let that out?:eek2: I need to patent it fast!)

 

2.

The supply channels of ethanol will not be as simple as I assumed it would be. A method to simplify the transport needs to be devised. Say- anti corrosion coatings especially for ethanol? Need some googling around.

 

I cant wait to get started; damn the assignments I'm wading through!

[Eclipse Now]

Thanks. There are other views on ethanol, but I think they overlook a few issues... in my layman's perspective. Hey, I could be wrong, as I said I have an arts brain, and just sort of have a feel for what the various Executive Summaries say, not the equations and chemistry that got them there!

 

So for the other opinion, one classic ethanol optimist hippie dude who is quite likable in his own way, is David Blume.

Welcome to Alcohol Can Be A Gas! | Permaculture & Alcohol Can Be A Gas

 

 

Try this review of his book.

 

Alcohol can be a Gas ? initial impressions and comments Energy with-out Oil Weblog

 

Or listen to his 2 part podcasts (or watch the videos) here

Peak Moment: Alcohol Can Be a Gas, Part I | Global Public Media

 

and here

Peak Moment: Alcohol Can Be a Gas, Part II | Global Public Media

 

I have reservations. If something seems too good to be true, it usually is. However, I love the guy's "systems thinking" for creating yet another food AND fuel system that applies a permaculture system to industrial processes. We really could live in an "industrial ecosystem" where waste from one product becomes input into the next product.

 

So if you are busy, here's what I recommend. RSS via Google Reader to global public media and always, always, always download every single audio podcast they EVER do. That way you'll stay ahead, learning up to date stuff while walking, doing the dishes, on the bus, whatever.

 

Then also use iTunes to subscribe to Scientific American.

 

And lastly, once a week click on Energy bulletin and click their renewables / ethanol section over on the left, where they have the latest news.

Energy Bulletin

 

I just thought I'd better be honest and include Blume, because I am aware of this claims but think they might be a bit unrealistic and not include proper ERoEI balance checks.

 

Anyway, bookmark this thread and if you find any definitive stuff on it let me know! I would LOVE my peak oil fears to just go away this easily!