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#188 LaurieAG

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 01:56 AM

LaurieAG, I'm taking it for granted the sinking ship has no heat tiles of any kind on it as the space shuttle did. How much of it do you believe will make it through?

 

It all depends on its orbit and construction Deepwater6. If it becomes elongated it could burn harder on reentry and whatever was left could punch through. It could also burn itself up gradually during its wobbles. Skylab came down in Western Australia although it weighs around 10 times more than Tiangong 1. 

 

If anything did come in many people would be interested in collecting/buying the remains lol.

 

1373244244-0.jpg



#189 LaurieAG

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 04:04 AM

And those 3 NEO's just show how much we need to pick up our game with respect to identifying these things earlier.

 

It seems like one way would be to create an observation network between Venus and Mars where we can identify potential incoming objects in a basketball zone like defence with many overlapping zones. Ideally we should have many observation stations and a fast simple detection technology/strategy linked together in a light signal based communications network.

 

Probably a better application than a mere communication satellite network for the efforts of someone like Elon Musk but there won't be any real money in it until something strikes a city/town etc and causes a lot of damage (and insurance company angst. Lets hope, if this ever happens, that it's a relatively small one.



#190 Deepwater6

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 07:52 AM

I read some where, and found it amusing that Australia actually fined NASA $400 for littering when Skylab came down. I believe a radio show paid it for them as a promotional bit. 


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#191 LaurieAG

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 04:47 AM

Even though I missed yesterdays rough reading the rate of decline seems to have settled down, the altitude of nominal burst has stabilised and it doesn't seem to be wobbling as much as before, so it looks like TIANGONG 1 is on the home straight with close to 30 km left to drop. 
Date           Time  (AEST)   Altitude     Difference ANB 
 
02/3/2018      7:00pm         251.72km     1.05km     217
03/3/2018      8:00pm         250.72km     1.00km     217
04/3/2018      7:00pm         249.84km     0.88km     217
05/3/2018      8:00pm         248.89km     0.95km     217
                              247.95km     0.94km     217
07/3/2018      8:00pm         247.00km     0.95km     217
It just intrigues me why the US StratCom forecast is over 4 days higher than 30 days (at a linear 1.00km per day) so I wonder if they have factored in another bounce or 2?
 
I'll stick with my previous guestimate of just after midnight on April 2 as the rate of decline will probably be higher than 1.00km per day. 


#192 Turtle

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Posted 08 March 2018 - 07:26 PM

I predict that a heretofore unknown comet will soon appear and strike Mercury. :eight:  :dust:   =@  :help:


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#193 LaurieAG

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Posted 09 March 2018 - 02:33 AM

I predict that a heretofore unknown comet will soon appear and strike Mercury. :eight:  :dust:   =@  :help:

 

Hey Turtle, I just googled it there's a site on the list 'Why does Mercury have more craters than other planets" but the site won't let me connect.

 

But I did get a google copy from the 5th of this month and it says that because Mercury has no atmosphere it just looks like it has more craters because they haven't eroded yet. You got some inside info Turtle? ;)

 

Also the Tiangong I altitude of nominal burst has dropped to 181 km and it's currently around 245 km so the forecast is 64km dropped in 32 days or 2km per day on average if the figures are straight.  


Edited by LaurieAG, 09 March 2018 - 02:39 AM.


#194 LaurieAG

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Posted 11 March 2018 - 04:29 AM

Well I missed a day again but the figures are fairly consistent and TIANGONG I doesn't appear to be wobbling as much as it was before. I also found a recent forecast from ESA 5 days ago and its reentry update page has a nice plot of their projected ranges. Interestingly enough, if I plot my forecast date with the current altitude and keep the path consistent within their ranges I get an altitude of nominal burst of around 180km. 
 
The US StratComm forecast crept in an extra day (from 2 days ago) to 4 weeks now so it has only got 7 extra days for its forecast to come in before it matches mine. Their forecast is at the top of the ESA range, at the ESA minimum altitude of nominal burst, so it must be a maximum reentry date/time forecast. 
Date           Time  (AEST)   Altitude     Difference ANB 
 
08/3/2018      7:00pm         246.16km     0.84km     181
09/3/2018      7:00pm         245.12km     1.04km     181
                              243.94km     1.14km     
11/3/2018      7:00pm         242.80km     1.14km     124
The last European Space Agency (ESA) update was on March 6.

The current estimated window is ~29 March to ~9 April; this is highly variable.

 
The ESA FAQ/Blog is here.

From monitoring the controlled reentries of those types of spacecraft, it can be surmised that Tiangong-1 will break up during its atmospheric re-entry and that some parts will survive the process and reach the surface of Earth.

 


#195 LaurieAG

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 05:43 AM

The forecast from Satview has come in an extra 7 days in 1 day although the altitude of nominal burst has only gone up to 126km. While this forecast isn't that many hours different from mine, just after midnight on April 2, it is nevertheless an April Fools day forecast.

 

The reentry location per the US StratCom has stayed largely the same although that could just reflect either the forecast has not been updated or for other reasons.

 

Regardless of the actual reentry point and date/time and considering the recent split to the arctic polar vortex and the plethora of cyclones travelling down the coral sea, it is probably time to think about incorporating these types of things into a realistic international man made climate change treaty. 

 

 



#196 LaurieAG

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Posted 15 March 2018 - 05:55 AM

Well here's the latest data (roughly 1.25km per day) but I'm not sure how straight the data and the other details are as ESA hasn't updated their forecast for 9 days and the Satview reentry forecast is over 30 hours old here AEST as I write this (Update Wed 14-Mar-2018 22:10 UTC). The data changes irregularly (it said 238.40km earlier then 238.80km then down to 238.40km again this evening AEST). 
 
So TIANGONG I is apparently bouncing around and the reentry location stated as being supplied by US StratCom has been staying too static then bouncing around between off the US East Coast/mainland USA and off the East coast of Australia or near where the cyclone is currently spawning off north Western Australia in Irian Jaya/West Papua.
 
The projections on the 13th went to 7 mins after midnight on the 2nd of April (mine, ha ha) before going back up to 9 April at 1:45am AEST so someone certainly has a sense of humour although the "Elon Musk walks out of Tesla" adverts on the phone/web versions of Satview are pushing that sense of humour to the limits (if not excuses to load up cryptominers/ransomware). 
Date           Time  (AEST)   Altitude   Difference  ANB
12/3/2018      8:00pm         241.23km     1.57km    124
13/3/2018      7:00pm         240.18km     1.05km    126
14/3/2018      8:00pm         239.22km     0.96km    121
15/3/2018      8:30pm         237.88km     1.34km    131
Other Considerations
 
(1) I mentioned in an earlier post about "other reasons" and I'll just specify that this isn't with regards to Satview/ESA/USstratCom (they may have their own reasons) but with direct regards to third partys who are working for 4th parties. These 3rd parties are basically criminals with access to US government systems (among many others) and the 4th parties are those who would benefit immensely (financially) should a war break out between major international powers. It would not surprise me if somebody is screwing about with the data with zero day exploits that not even the US government knows about, and that's not from paranoid conspiracy theorists it's from ISC SANS.
 
(2) Today a thought popped into my head, Jesus what if there was some poor bastard(s) in that thing trying to bring it down safely (ocean not land) so here's the longest bow pull ever seen for the reentry location if this is the case. 17,17 S 17,3 W near Ascension Island, a British overseas territory in the southern Atlantic with an RAF base. My date/time forecast stays the same.


#197 LaurieAG

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Posted 20 March 2018 - 04:12 AM

There is no sign of any real elongation of the orbits in the data shown below, broken into daily readings 12 hours apart, and the maximum deviation between the sets is less than half a kilometer. If you just looked at all the data together you might have come to a different conclusion. The first set is UTC 12:00 while the second set is before at UTC 00:00. 
 
That's all good because it makes projection so much easier :).
Date          Time  (AEST)    Altitude   Difference  ANB
16/3/2018      8:00pm         236.16km     1.72km    130
17/3/2018      8:00pm         234.23km     1.83km    120
18/3/2018      8:00pm         232.10km     2.13km    134
19/3/2018      8:30pm         230.17km     1.93km    119
20/3/2018      8:00pm         227.64km     2.53km    129
Date          Time  (AEST)   Altitude    Difference  ANB
16/3/2018     10:00am         236.54km     1.86km    130
17/3/2018     10:00am         235.13km     1.41km    120
18/3/2018     10:00am         233.02km     2.11km    134
19/3/2018     10:00am         231.03km     1.99km    119
20/3/2018     10:00am         228.18km     2.85km    131
 


#198 LaurieAG

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Posted 21 March 2018 - 06:30 AM

Here are some photo's I took of TIANGONG 1 passing over tonight. As I don't have the ability to attach files you'll have to follow the link.

 

https://forum.cosmoq...790#post2443790



#199 LaurieAG

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Posted 23 March 2018 - 03:55 AM

I just captured another pic of TIANGONG 1 passing over head at 7:21pm AEST 23 March 2018.
 


#200 LaurieAG

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Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:49 AM

This morning I received an error message on the Satview phone version of their website that said that there was an error in the app with regards to Google maps and, while it came good reasonably quickly, the website and phone version of the same are producing inconsistent details. 

 

The website said 'Update Fri 23-Mar-2018 8:06 UTC' (6:06pm AEST) when the altitude was 221.14km and then stayed the same for 220.42km later. The phone version of the website says that the orbital element is from 03:85 today, which is 1:58pm AEST if it is UTC, while the current altitude is 220.42km which is the same as the latest website data. 

 

I'll have to have a good think about the actual timing of the data in my next post, maybe even go back to one day with a best fit for the other set.



#201 LaurieAG

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Posted 24 March 2018 - 05:56 AM

Here are my revised sets. The 6:pm and 6:am AEST details are unchanged while in the 12:00 noon set some are adjusted, some not. The deviation between the sets is still less than 1.00km.
 
I have posted the link to my pics below and must note that Tiangong 1 came by around 5 mins earlier than the Satview forecast tonight. Although tonight's image was a bit rough due to clouds it still follows the same angle across the sky as the other images.
Date          Time  (AEST)    Altitude     Difference  ANB
21/3/2018     6:00am          226.94km     2.13km      134
22/3/2018     6:00am          224.71km     2.23km      123
23/3/2018     6:00am          222.55km     2.26km      133
24/3/2018     6:00am          218.47km     2.08km      127
Date          Time  (AEST)    Altitude     Difference  ANB
21/3/2018     12:00 noon      226.03km     2.69km      134
22/3/2018     12:00 noon      223.53km     2.50km      123
23/3/2018     12:00 noon      221.22km     2.31km      125
24/3/2018     12:00 noon      218.47km     2.75km      127
Date          Time  (AEST)    Altitude     Difference  ANB
21/3/2018     6:00pm          225.45km     2.19km      134
22/3/2018     6:00pm          222.70km     2.75km      133
23/3/2018     6:00pm          220.42km     2.28km      125
24/3/2018     6:00pm          217.58km     2.84km      126
China Manned Space daily up to 22 March 2018.
 

Edited by LaurieAG, 24 March 2018 - 06:03 AM.


#202 Turtle

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Posted 24 March 2018 - 01:09 PM

Hey Turtle, I just googled it there's a site on the list 'Why does Mercury have more craters than other planets" but the site won't let me connect.

 

But I did get a google copy from the 5th of this month and it says that because Mercury has no atmosphere it just looks like it has more craters because they haven't eroded yet. You got some inside info Turtle? ;)

 

Also the Tiangong I altitude of nominal burst has dropped to 181 km and it's currently around 245 km so the forecast is 64km dropped in 32 days or 2km per day on average if the figures are straight.  

No factual info, just a wild but compelling thought inside my caranium. :crazy:


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#203 LaurieAG

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Posted 24 March 2018 - 10:27 PM

When that compelling thought pops into your head Turtle, you just gotta follow your natural instinct. They should name it the Turtle crater. :)



#204 LaurieAG

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 05:06 AM

Since March 25 in the evening and after a 24 hour hiatus, Satcom and USstratCom have resumed producing observations and projections, although there are some discrepancies with the earlier results and todays results and their subsequent projections/observations. 
Date           Time (AEST)  Time diff   Velocity   V diff     Altitude   Alt diff  Avg 9h Alt diff
March 21 2018  19:56        0           27972km/s   0         225.45km   0.00      0.0  
...
March 27 2018  09:06        133h        28004km/s  -32km/s    208.04km   17.41km   1.18km/9hrs
March 27 2018  18:06        9h          27968km/s  +36km/s    207.45km    0.59km   0.59km/9hrs
All I can say is that this is just as bad as those Australian ball tamperers, "it just aint cricket!", and my projection remains the same.

Edited by LaurieAG, 27 March 2018 - 05:18 AM.