Reentry is down to 133 days and 9 hours now so we'll have a better idea of actual reentry in a couple of days. I can vaguely recall that the original orbit wasn't exactly polar or equatorial but more like an offset polar orbit so they may not be compatible.
Near Earth Objects
Posted 25 November 2017 - 01:02 PM
I'm losing it, this is the first I'm hearing about this one. Not only that, it supposedly was (until recently) once thought to have impact possibilities. Fairly large one too, It's not the more usual school bus size passing, but is 3 miles wide.
Oumuamua continues to be really interesting, I don't think I remember anything shaped close to it going through our solar system. I wish we had more information and a better view.
Posted 28 November 2017 - 08:47 PM
We've been getting very mild weather with rain lately in the north of Australia and are expecting a wet summer while Victoria and Tasmania are having another heat wave. I have also noticed that the TIANGONG I forecasts have ranged between 84 and 116 days til reentry in the past 6 days which means it should be coming in during our southern hemisphere cyclone season.
This map shows the location of the reentry predicted by USstratcom (United States Strategic Command).
When it gets closer to reentry it will impact the atmosphere around its path. The map should update when you refresh this page (currently March 25 2018 at 4:23pm over Australia).
Edited by LaurieAG, 25 December 2017 - 05:06 AM.
Posted 25 December 2017 - 04:47 AM
Tiangong I has just changed it's descent rate from around 0.3 of a km per day to around 0.5 of a km per day.
The Solar Maximum mission reentry showed a similar change in descent per day at a similar altitude although its mass is around 0.25 of the mass of Tiangong I.
Edited by LaurieAG, 25 December 2017 - 04:52 AM.
Posted 28 January 2018 - 02:40 PM
Well that sounds about right for my luck, my Philadelphia Eagles finally make it to the super bowl and an asteroid hits us to plunge us into a mini ice age. It's tough to be an Eagles fan for many reasons. It seems we have been having a lot of pass-by asteroids lately.
Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:55 AM
Not long now LG, hopefully it just lands in the ocean somewhere out of the way. Maybe we'll get lucky and have coverage of it's path somehow, it would be cool to see.
That's strange, there must have been some sort of a bit of a blip 6 weeks ago as the drop in altitude of Tiangong I is now finally but firmly 0.5k per day.
I must be missing something here as the current forecast is for 75 days and 23 hours at a 255 km altitude of nominal burst but the current altitude is 267.5 so 267.5 - 255 = 12.5 which should take 25 days at 0.5km per day yet the forecast is 3 times more.
Posted 10 February 2018 - 10:58 PM
They have changed the altitude of nominal burst to 238 km from 255 km so the figures make more sense now.
Posted 11 February 2018 - 03:51 PM
Do you think China still has enough capability to maneuver the craft into the ocean or are they just spreading good PR and hoping for the best?
Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:28 AM
The Chinese announced that they had lost control of it over a year ago so they have been straight about it.
The altitude of nominal burst has jumped from 238 to 264, the current altitude is 264.99km and the forecast reentry is 99days and 11 hours so the data still isn't straight.
Posted 19 February 2018 - 03:47 AM
The altitude drop is almost 1km per day, the current altitude is 260.38km, the altitude of nominal burst is 223 and the forecast is currently 44d and 6hrs.
This forecast would be ok if it continued to drop at 1k per day but that's not going to happen so I'll put my head out and say it will come down sometime around 16-21 March 2018, or in 25-30 days.
Posted Today, 01:47 AM
I have been recording 3 pieces of data once a day just to get a rough idea on how fast TIANGONG I is dropping and the data over the past couple of days makes me suspect that TIANGONG I may have just had a "bounce".
Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference 18/2/2018 5:00pm 261.37km 19/2/2018 6:30pm 260.38km 0.99km 20/2/2018 3:30pm 260.16km 0.22km 21/2/2018 3:30pm 259.30km 0.86km