Scientist Skeptical Of Climate Skeptic.

[Universal Student]

Unless you expect to live for many thousands of years, you’re ill-advised to make personal preparations for the next glacial period, because it’s not expected to occur for about 10,000 to 50,000 years.

I was not referring to a glacial period (though I had a dream about advancing glaciers when I was very young). I was obviously referring to a (synchronous) Little Ice Age, like the one the Earth experienced between the 13th and 19th centuries.

 

It’s important to be mindful and careful, I think, with the term “ice age”. As a geological term, it refers to a period in which Earth has large ice sheets, such as those on Antarctica and Greenland. In this sense, there’s no ice age coming, as we’re still in the one that started about about 2,580,000 years ago.

 

Within an ice age like our present one, ice sheets expand and shrink to cover more and less of the surface. A period where the ice sheets cover more than on average is called a glacial period, one where it covers less, an interglacial period. We’ve been in an interglacial period for about the past 10,000 years, and as I mentioned above, are expected to remain in it for at least another 10,000.

Although I tend to be rather precise in my terminology, my comments were not intended to be semantically exact. Living far inland at 44° 47’ 50” N Latitude, it is probable that we will be experiencing increasingly colder winters and summers in the foreseeable future. The trend here has been generally in that direction for the past 50 years, with a few minor glitches.

 

 

Though the term “ice age” gets bandied about to mean many different things, which can be confusing, so on the principle that it’s good to have different words and phrases to name different things, I think it’s better to describe the coming glacial period as “the next glacial period” rather than “the coming ice age”.

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

'The question is,' said Alice, 'whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, 'which is to be master — that's all.'

Through the Looking Glass, by Lewis Carroll

 

 

As has been discussed in this and many other threads, were it not for the unusual high concentration of greenhouse gasses that has occurred since humans began transferring large amounts of carbon from reservoirs such as coal, oil, and limestone deposits into the air by burning and heating them, the Earth would be in period of gradual cooling leading to the next glacial period. Because of our carbon-releasing ways, however, we’re in a warming period, likely to last for at least 100 years.

That is the opinion of many credible scientists, but is also refuted by many credible scientists. One of the few things that we can be assured of is that climate, especially in various locations, is going to change over time. Sometimes it will be synchronously cyclic, and sometimes not, depending upon literally thousands of “butterfly” factors.

 

There’s no scientific theory or evidence for an impending sunshine shortage. Though the solar output varies in roughly 11 year cycles, it’s a small variance, about 0.1%. In the long term, stellar physics, which is pretty solid science, tells us the Sun will get steadily brighter, at a rate of about 1% every 100,000,000 years. Life on Earth as we presently know it will be impossible in about 1,000,000,000 years – a bit of a long time scale to worry about even for people who think they might live thousands of years.

I was not referring to Solar Output, but rather the amount reaching the surface of the Earth. Cloud cover, smog, and volcanic emissions account for dramatic decreases in available sunshine in a given area.

 

I think you’re reasonable and correct to expect the scarcity and cost of fuel to increase in our lifetimes. The cost, though not the scarcity, has already increased a lot in the 51 years I’ve been alive. However, other than short term fluctuations due to market conditions, I don’t expect fuel, to become scarce and expensive quickly, especially coal, as best estimates put their proven reserves at more than 100 years current production.

Many experts agree that the cost of energy and fuel will continue to rise. That is why investing in insulation in buildings will always be worth more than the cost. It is expected that energy companies will eventually control the entire economy of the Earth. Jerry Pournelle pointed out that wealth (standard of living) is tied directly to the cost of energy.

I installed the wood stoves to reduce the cost of energy, and my dependence upon the energy companies. I have been switching over to LED lighting, and am in the process of designing more efficient vertical axis wind turbines. I have several operating now, including the one below. I may be off the grid within 5 years.

[Eclogite]

That is the opinion of many credible scientists, but is also refuted by many credible scientists.

It's just that the ratio of the two is overwhelmingly in favour of those who assert the reality of global warming and the probable role of man in that trend.