Water: Where will it come from in 2050?

[gribbon]

Did anyone look at the link? It claims that desalination is more than feasible, even for a country as thirsty as the U.S. (But not poor countries.) However, although it accounts for economic growth, it does not incorporate the effect of population growth. We need a projection of what the water consumption for the U.S will be in say, 20 years time, or more accurately, what the water consumption and economic flexibility will be when reserves start to run dry.

[Michaelangelica]

Yes Monomer

The Deep North,sigh, too much sun, what can you say?

 

We have level 4 restrictions. No use of any fresh water outside at all by any means

 

I think it is possible to come up with solutions to the lack of fresh water

I think solar desalination has not had enough R&D in design and especially using new polymers and nanotechnology.

I would like to see a very cheap productive system that could be used in the Underdeveloped Countries like many in Africa. This would have the added benefit of reducing disease as solar desalintors also purify the water.

 

So two filtering sea and brackish water. New polymers, membranes and nanotechnology may reduce energy consumption.

 

Of course we could get lucky and energy costs drop. I have a friend working in this area. If he succeds he will probably have to be assassinated- the system is so good.

We could discover the Holy Grails of Cold Fusion or High Tempreature Super Conductors. The future can be positive; it need not be bleak. The first step to solving a problem is identifying it.

 

Another interesting idea is harvesting water from the air similar to the way air-conditioners do now.

 

In Australia many are fitting water tanks to new houses and in fact it is mandatory in some areas for new houses. Twenty years ago it was illegal to have them!

 

Grey water systems save a lot of water. I am amazed how much I can recycle using a primative hose syphon just to my bath and spar.

 

Terra preta/bio-cahr Gardening/Farming/Horticulture could save 17% or more water in these areas.

 

I am not as optimistic about getting good environmental flows in southen Oz rivers (esp Murry-Darling basin) We may have to give up growing rice and cotton and find other economic crops (salbush? gopher-weed?)

 

About half of the water used in the United States is used for electric plant cooling.

Our local (Lake Munmorah) power station has cut its water use drastically using sea water for cooling and recycled sewrage water. Google it if interested.

 

Great link,fxzeu, thanks. Everyone should read it

FuturePundit: May 2006 Archives

 

This is a talk fest in Sydney in February

 

The 5th Annual Australian Water Summit will take place at the Hilton on the Park Hotel, Melbourne. This event follows extremely successful conferences, held in Melbourne for the past two years. This is a high-level event involving the key decision-makers from state and federal governments, scientists, large water users and the commercial water industry. The 2007 Summit theme is "Can you afford to miss a drop" Read more...

 

Day three looks vaguely interesting and ominous eg "What are scarcity values?" means lets charge the public more$ because we haven't planned for this.

11.00 CASE STUDY: Everybody needs one

Mayor Clarke’s presentation will cover the following:

 

*

 

Climate change

*

 

A stable/certain bulk water source has become a necessity

*

 

Air-to-water units will become the next certain source

*

 

Homes should be mandated to use their grey water better

*

 

With these steps in place there never will be a water

supply crisis

 

Councillor Ron Clarke MBE, Mayor, Gold Coast City Council

 

11.40 The establishment of the Water Grid in South East Queensland

The Southern Regional Water Pipeline (SRWP) is a fundamental part of the Government's comprehensive plan to shore up south-east Queensland's water supplies in the face of the worst drought on record. Construction of the pipeline and related infrastructure started in October 2006 and is due to be completed in November 2008, with the cost estimated to be $600 million

Mr Graham Thomson, Chief Executive Officer, SRWP Alliance

 

12.20 Lunch for speakers and delegates

 

1.30 Pricing challenges for water

 

*

 

Distortion in current pricing arrangements

*

 

What are scarcity values?

*

 

What is a sensible use restrictions regime?

*

 

Pricing implications of scarcity value and recycled water

 

Euan Morton, Principal, Synergies Economic Consulting

 

 

2.10 Climate change effects on the scarcity of water

 

*

 

An update on how climate change affects the Australian water industry

*

 

Theories, threats, issues and challenges

*

 

Factoring climate change scenarios into Australia’s water reform

*

 

Planning for the future – what are our options?

 

Blair Trewin, Director Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology

 

 

2.50 Afternoon tea

 

 

3.10 Analysing the WWF report: "Free-flowing Rivers - economic luxury or ecological necessity?"

 

*

 

According to WWF most of the world’s largest rivers are losing their connection to the sea

*

 

The ever increasing loss of free-flowing rivers is a disturbing trend, threatening the supply of water for drinking, sanitation, agriculture, fish and fishery products

*

 

WWF has called on all governments to fully recognize the importance of free-flowing rivers and their biological and economic importance

*

 

Development of water infrastructure should follow the strategic priorities and recommendations outlined by the World Commission on Dams.

*

 

WWF believes it is now time to take stock of the free-flowing rivers and take protective action to ensure that in twenty years time the world still has free-flowing rivers.

 

Averil Bones, Freshwater Policy Manager, World Wildlife Fund Australia

[gribbon]

There's hardly any water in the atmosphere. Almost all fresh water is in polar icecaps, surface water, and groundwater.

[HydrogenBond]

A simple water purification technique, that is totally organic, are plants. Picture this; one has a greenhouse where some tough but succulent leafy plants are designed to drink bad water. These plants will not only drink and collect the crap in the water but will sweat. We collect the purified plant sweat, high in oxygen, as pure drinking water. All you need is solar power for the plants and a solar panel or two running a dehumidifier.

[gribbon]

Hmmm...I've never heard of such a plant...:hihi:

[Michaelangelica]

There's hardly any water in the atmosphere.

 

Water is the main greenhouse gas.

(Water vapour retains 66% of all the heat trapped by all the greenhouse gasses-

-Tim Flannery)

Clouds are made from water.

(People are mainly water)

From wiki:-

An Atmospheric water generator (AWG) is a machine that produces pure drinking water from the humidity of the surrounding air. An AWG operates in a manner very similar to that of a refrigerated dehumidifier: air is passed through a cooled coil, causing water to condense. The amount of water that can be produced depends on the humidity, the volume of air passing through the coils, and the size of the machine.

 

The device is used in situations where pure drinking water is otherwise difficult to obtain or where the population demands are greater than the water tables can sustain or the water table has been or is contaminated, or for natural disaster relief.

The XDOBS Water extraction from air devices

A2WH (Air to Water Harvest Technology). Water Extraction from Air converts humidity in the air into high quality water. A2WH Works in Deserts and even better in humid areas.

 

 

MEDICINE INVENTIONS

E-MAIL

The Rainmaker

The science-fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke once wrote that "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." Case in point: this water-harvesting machine, which can pull up to 500 gal. of drinkable water per day out of thin air. Its precise workings aren't public, but they use a chemical process similar to the one that causes salt to absorb moisture from the air (and clump up your saltshaker). The water machine isn't particularly portable--it's 20 ft. long--but it will be a godsend for disaster victims or troops in desert combat.

Inventor: Aqua Sciences

Availability: Now; about $300,000

To learn more visit aquasciences.com

TIME Best Inventions 2006

 

Robert Cohen, Michael Rubner, and colleagues started by assembling a nano-structured film made of alternating layers of positively and negatively charged polymers and silica nanoparticles. The film's structure and a coating of waxy fluorinated silane cause water to bead on it, forming near-perfect spheres that easily roll off. To add the superhydrophilic regions (to which water droplets cling), the researchers applied a naturally hydrophilic polymer to selected areas.

 

In dry regions of the world, without easy access to clean water, such a material could be used for collecting water. In this application, the hydrophilic areas of the material would attract moisture in the air, collecting water drops that accumulate, until they spill over into the hydrophobic regions and roll into a collecting channel. Currently, in countries with limited access to clean water, the inhabitants typically use large polypropylene fiber meshes to harvest water from fog.

Technology Review: Super Plastic Both Attracts and Repels Water

[Michaelangelica]

April 1997

Dividing the Water

 

Water may seem to be everywhere, but for a rising portion of the world's population, there may soon be hardly a drop to drink -or to use for growing food, supporting industries and cities, and preserving life-giving ecosystems.

. . .

Indeed, a growing scarcity of freshwater is now an impediment to global future food security, health of aquatic ecosystems, and social and political stability.

Each year, millions of tons of grain are grown by depleting groundwater, a clear case of robbing the future to pay for the present. Competition for water is increasing-between cities and farms, between neighboring states and provinces, and between nations-as demands bump up against the limits of a finite supply.

And critical ecosystem functions such as flood protection, water purification, habitat maintenance, and the sustenance of fisheries are being destroyed by excessive damming, diversion, and pollution of rivers.

. . .

As world population expands by a projected 2.6 billion people over the next 30 years, and as consumption levels spiral upward, water problems are bound to intensify. With the best dam sites already developed and many rivers and groundwater reserves already overtapped, opportunities to solve these problems by exploiting new sources are limited.

A fresh approach is needed, one focused on using water more efficiently and allocating it more equitably.

. . .

humanity is already appropriating, directly or indirectly, more than half of the water supply that is now accessible.

The problem is that water use tripled between 1950 and 1990 as world population soared by some 2.7 billion.

Given that the population is projected to climb by nearly the same amount over the next 30 years, this is a troubling prospect.

Worldwide demand for water cannot triple again without causing severe shortages for crop irrigation, industrial use, basic household needs, and critical life-supporting ecosystems.

Technology Review: Dividing the Water

[gribbon]

I looked at your link, and one thing I noticed is that the site claims that these devices can be powered entirely from desert heat...quite impressive...

 

The trouble is though, is that only around 0.004% of the world's water is contained in the atmosphere. Over 77.20% is in the polar ice caps, but I dread to think of the practical costs regarding pumping fresh water all over the world!:)

 

Groundwater has the second most, with 22.26% of reserves, and significantly below this are the rivers and lakes, with 0.32%, and then soil.

 

I think the real advantage with what you propose though, is that moisture can be extracted as fast as one wants it, and there is no need to carefully moniture the extraction rates.

 

What we need is to compare the cost of desalination with the cost of groundwater extraction, and extraction from the atmosphere, and if possible, from glaciers and ice-caps. (Though this last one seems a bit unrealistic).

 

Somehow, we then need to take countries which do have water shortages and are very poor (we know that a rich country can afford desal), and see how much water they are lacking/could do with. (A few examples where water wars/ brikmanship have taken place would be between Angola, Botswana and Namibia, Israel and Egypt, Egypt and Ethiopia, Syria and Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, India and Bangaldesh, Libya and Egypt etc.

 

Thankfully, Qaddafi's ingenious irrigation schemes, such as his man-made river project, are going to lessen the impact of continuing popualation growth, at least for Libya.

 

"In general a country with less than 1,700 cubic meter per capita is regarded as experiencing water stress, while less than 1000 cubic meter is regarded as water shortage."

 

According to:

 

WaterWars

 

The next bit is according to:

 

Statistics that show water availability in each country:

 

So, as we can see, all the countries below China have water stress, and all the countries from Uganda downwards have a water shortage. Now someone who doesn't mind doing maths needs to calaculate how much it would cost for each one of them to make up the extra amount, fistrly if they were to use Desal, and then with the other methods. It costs 40 cents per cubic metre to desal. I'll take an example of one country that not only has severe shortages, but also has a chance of starting a war over it:

 

Namibia:

 

Would require an extra 1701.94 thousand cubic metres. So, using desal, they would have to fork out about $71,607,760

 

That's alot...

[Michaelangelica]

I think if there is a mathamatician around the amount of available fresh water on the planet will not be enough to go around in 2050 (Unless we have major technological breakthrough)

 

see also

http://hypography.com/forums/general-science-news/10145-nasa-space-sleuth-hunts-trail-earths.html#post157462

[TheBigDog]

I think if there is a mathamatician around the amount of available fresh water on the planet will not be enough to go around in 2050 (Unless we have major technological breakthrough)

 

see also

http://hypography.com/forums/general-science-news/10145-nasa-space-sleuth-hunts-trail-earths.html#post157462

There is more than enough water, and there will continue to be more than enough water. The issue is not quantity, it is distribution. People need to move to the water. Infrustructures need to be built to supply water to city centers. It is a matter of engineering and political will.

 

Bill

[Michaelangelica]

There is more than enough water, and there will continue to be more than enough water. The issue is not quantity, it is distribution. People need to move to the water. Infrustructures need to be built to supply water to city centers. It is a matter of engineering and political will.

 

Bill

Here is a site with some sums

Human Appropriation of the World's Fresh Water Supply

A few quotes from it:-

 

< 1% of the world's fresh water (~0.007% of all water on earth) is accessible for direct human uses.

This is the water found in lakes, rivers, reservoirs and those underground sources that are shallow enough to be tapped at an affordable cost.

Only this amount is regularly renewed by rain and snowfall, and is therefore available on a sustainable basis.

 

The water cycle on Earth is essentially a closed system – we always have the same amount of water.

 

Worldwide, new dams (> 15 m ht) were constructed at rate of 885 per year during 1950-80, present rate is 500/yr, and future rate is estimated at 350/yr.

Over next 30 years, assuming size of reservoirs is unchanged, new construction adds 1200 km3 to accessible supply, and raises total AR in 2025 to 13,700 km3/hr.

Assuming average per capita water demand stays unchanged, but adjusting the pollution dilution for additional population, the total human appropriation in 2025 would be 9830 km3/yr, or 70% of estimated AR (compared to current 54%).

Clearly we are approaching the limit of available fresh water supply.

 

If all the Earth's water fit into a gallon jug, available fresh water would equal just over a tablespoon.

And the little bit we have is heavily used and abused by humans. We spend billions of dollars and tons of fossil fuels piping fresh water to semi-arid deserts such as Southern California only to flush it down the sewer at six gallons a wee. We befoul rivers and streams and oceans with all manner of toxic effluent, making them life-threatening to swim or surf in. We suck up ancient ground water supplies to grow yuppie tomatoes in November or water golf courses in the Sahara. As planetary stewards, we suck.

Surfrider Foundation Snowrider Project

[HydrogenBond]

I don't think we are running out of water or that there is not enough water to water the populations of the future. The problem is that too many people are settling where clean water is scarce. This can be due to circumstance, jobs, etc.. One can probably put a billion people around the great lakes in the US/Canada. The amazon river basin could handle 2 billion. We can dam huge retaining lakes in all the rain forests for storage and export. That buys us another 50 years.

[Zythryn]

The issue this doesn't take into affect is improvements in technology. Both recycling and desalination (sp?).

For example, if we find an economic way to turn ocean water into fresh water, supply goes way up.

Also, how is per/capita usage figured. Everyone in the world doesn't use as much fresh water as those in water plentiful regions. If water usage is brought under control, then it is simply a matter of distribution, as Bill said above.

[Michaelangelica]

On distribution look at this site

CalWaterWarRoom

CalWaterWarRoom: Cal Water Deals In Motion

[gribbon]

Going back on what I said a while ago, it might be possible for poor countries to use desal...after all, all alot of these countries would have to do is reduce their military expenditures by a small amount...

 

What we need is a proper calculation of the economic growth which these countries will experience, and then see if they can afford it...I'm going to try at some point to find out about the priorities of these governments, because as one person said earlier, it does depend on political will....

 

This site shows that Namibia has a reaosnable level of growth, but I can't see the gov setting aside the amount I calculated would be needed...

 

NationMaster - Statistics > GDP > Real growth rate by country

 

So Namibia has 3.5%, and other water short countries have higher...I can easily see North Afrcian countries managing their supplies, but not Naimbia unfortunately...

[Michaelangelica]

Going back on what I said a while ago, it might be possible for poor countries to use desal...after all, all alot of these countries would have to do is reduce their military expenditures by a small amount...

[/url]

 

So Namibia has 3.5%, and other water short countries have higher...I can easily see North Afrcian countries managing their supplies, but not Naimbia unfortunately...

For the cost of the Iraq war -100billion PA, the USA could give all the third world fresh water

(or, more likely ,free champagne and beer!).

 

For what the West spends on luxury ocean cruises clean water could be had for all

(Source:- New International Nov 2006)

 

Multinational companies launder around 207Bil. of profits tax free out of developing countries a year.

By contrast, aid from rich countries to poor countries is 80 bil. a year.

(New Internationalist Dec 2006)

 

Still without some marked improvement in de-salination technology and cost there will just not be enough fresh water to go around by 2050. There is just so much on the planet and that's it!

[gribbon]

Still without some marked improvement in de-salination technology and cost there will just not be enough fresh water to go around by 2050. There is just so much on the planet and that's it!

 

Well, we need to be cerati on the intentions of the governemnts: let's take another case study and look at how much these countries adhere to environmental concerns....

 

Okay...

 

Angola

 

This country really has nothing to complian or worry about, seeing as it has significanlty more water per capita than the vast majority of Africa. With 13,203 cubic metres per capita, in comparison with 5,705 for the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, this country really has nothing to complain about. Not only this, but thus far, only 0.4% of the withdrawals have been from renewable resources, which could explain the shortages. Namibia could afford water, and so can Angola...just a bit of planning needed, really...

 

Angola - Water Resources and Freshwater Ecosystems - Country Profile