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A new analisys, way simpler, does not rely on amount of tests (or on testing at all) and waaaay scarier results. Although I admit it should be done properly with all available data, not just some cities where they make these data available and not such a short time-range.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

 

Idea is very simple, take average number of people dying in past years per given day (in the linked article they take the average from 2015). Compare it to the number of people dying at given date now in 2020. And get graph in link (screenshot-paste did not work, so yo have to open it, is in english)

 

 

 

 

Then you can also add the reported corona-deaths and you see:

1) It is way lower

2) The difference is too big for being a statistical fluctuation

 

 

I tried to do something similar in Norway, but this data is not available for mere mortals.

 

I also found another interesting number, in average there 150k deaths per day worldwide, with the different testing and attributions around the world for corona-deaths there are 3k around the worls the past few days. You can say that many of these 3k would have died anyway soon, so let's say 2k of the 3k are in these case. That still leaves 1k out of the 150k (or 153k) daily average due to corona. This surprised me mainly because it means a more substantial contribution to daily deaths by corona than I expected.

3k deaths is insignificant in the grand scheme of things hopefully that will offset population growth slightly, if that is the case.

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But please, don't .  City people always bring their troubles with them and the countryside vanishes.  First they complain about the dusty and muddy roads and demand pavement, then they complain about

Ocean, this is kinda wrong to blame on chinese, it could have happened anywhere and anytime. Let me explain by copy-pasting a reply of a friend of mine to a fb-petition asking to ban live animal marke

While I agree that we are all going to be infected at some time or other, I don't agree with your statement that there is a 3% mortality rate average over the entire population. There is no way that a

Posted (edited)

3k of 150k  is 2% of total deaths and as beginning of my last post says the 3k is under-estimated

 

But if we say 2k of these 3k would have died anyway then you still get 0.65%.

 

So sorry, it is not insignificant

It is when you consider the population is growing at a rate of 1.05% per year or that of 7.7 billion = ‭80.85 million making it far insignificant at only ‬ ‭1.095 million deaths per year from this new virus if that number considered as rate stays the same. There will be new humans to replace the dead ones from this virus as only ‭1.298% of the Growth rate or ‭.001948% of the world population total is dying from this coronavirus. In the grand scheme of things it changes nothing, for every 1 person that dies of corona-virus 77 new ones replace them. As I said before, this is a very good thing for population control, we need a few more plagues.

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A new analisys, way simpler, does not rely on amount of tests (or on testing at all) and waaaay scarier results. Although I admit it should be done properly with all available data, not just some cities where they make these data available and not such a short time-range.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

 

Idea is very simple, take average number of people dying in past years per given day (in the linked article they take the average from 2015). Compare it to the number of people dying at given date now in 2020. And get graph in link (screenshot-paste did not work, so yo have to open it, is in english)

 

 

 

 

Then you can also add the reported corona-deaths and you see:

1) It is way lower

2) The difference is too big for being a statistical fluctuation

 

 

I tried to do something similar in Norway, but this data is not available for mere mortals.

 

I also found another interesting number, in average there 150k deaths per day worldwide, with the different testing and attributions around the world for corona-deaths there are 3k around the worls the past few days. You can say that many of these 3k would have died anyway soon, so let's say 2k of the 3k are in these case. That still leaves 1k out of the 150k (or 153k) daily average due to corona. This surprised me mainly because it means a more substantial contribution to daily deaths by corona than I expected.

 

 

I commented on that earlier, please see post #49 in this thread.

 

I thought it was a rare display of honesty as I assumed they did swab those people to see who was, and who was not, infected with the covid virus.

 

To make the case more convincing they should have listed the cause of death for the others; they must all have a cause of death on their death certificates and we should not have to draw any conclusions from statistics only.

 

For one thing, the world is in the grip of a deadly flu season which is every bit as deadly to an elderly population as covid. Earlier, in another post here, I greatly underestimated the number of deaths in the US from a recent flu season (2017-2018) as 36,000.

 

Here are the real numbers:

 

Influenza: Several strains of this virus circulate worldwide each year, mutating as they travel. The 2017-18 flu season affected 49 million Americans and claimed 79,000 lives, according to the CDC.

 

79,000! When you consider there are only a few peak months, and it slows to a crawl the rest of the year, that can mean 15,000 a month during the peak, or 500 or more dead per day, every day, for a month!

With covid, we have just had one day that exceeded 500 dead. One day versus every day for a month with the flu.

I hope that is the only day we go above 500 from covid but unfortunately, we can expect to see more.

 

Anyway, those additional deaths in Bergamo may have been flu-related or they may have been caused by the misguided efforts to save lives of old people who probably just want to be left alone.

 

Think about this for a second: Suppose you are 90 years old, living out your last days in your own home, in your familiar village surroundings, knowing your time is short. You cough, suddenly there is an ambulance pull up, with people who look like they have arrived from another planet, dressed in space suits and helmets with visors, and they proceed to carry you off to a strange hospital with strange-looking machines. Then they force a tube down your throat, nearly causing you to retch, filling your mouth with vomit, but they persist and get that tube painfully forced down your throat anyway. Now that machine is forcing you to breathe at a higher rate than you are accustomed to, and with a higher oxygen level than you are used to. They also hook you up to an IV, but your vein walls are so weak that the veins collapse and the IV fluid just backs up and does you no good at all.

 

You wonder, who are these strange people and why are they doing this to you? You are frightened, your 90-year-old heart is pounding. You can’t take this; soon, in a sigh of relief, you die.

 

They comfort each other and tell themselves they did their best.

 

No! They tortured you and killed you, when what they should have done is left you alone to die peacefully and with dignity, in your own bed at home. That was your right and they took it from you!

 

Now you tell me these researchers want to add your name to their Covid Wish List, to get that death rate up because it is TOO LOW for their liking?

 

I’d rather take my chances with “the virus”

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I see, you had found that info ages before me in post #49.

But the article compares to the average of 4 years, not only 1. And so I do not believe it statistically insignificant. Given now you have corona and before not, flu you have every year. So there only take away for me is that now there is crona and the nuber of deaths is 6-10 times higher than the average and more than the double of reported corona-deaths.
The cause of this additional does not really matter.

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I commented on that earlier, please see post #49 in this thread.

 

I thought it was a rare display of honesty as I assumed they did swab those people to see who was, and who was not, infected with the covid virus.

 

To make the case more convincing they should have listed the cause of death for the others; they must all have a cause of death on their death certificates and we should not have to draw any conclusions from statistics only.

 

For one thing, the world is in the grip of a deadly flu season which is every bit as deadly to an elderly population as covid. Earlier, in another post here, I greatly underestimated the number of deaths in the US from a recent flu season (2017-2018) as 36,000.

 

Here are the real numbers:

 

Influenza: Several strains of this virus circulate worldwide each year, mutating as they travel. The 2017-18 flu season affected 49 million Americans and claimed 79,000 lives, according to the CDC.

 

79,000! When you consider there are only a few peak months, and it slows to a crawl the rest of the year, that can mean 15,000 a month during the peak, or 500 or more dead per day, every day, for a month!

With covid, we have just had one day that exceeded 500 dead. One day versus every day for a month with the flu.

I hope that is the only day we go above 500 from covid but unfortunately, we can expect to see more.

 

Anyway, those additional deaths in Bergamo may have been flu-related or they may have been caused by the misguided efforts to save lives of old people who probably just want to be left alone.

 

Think about this for a second: Suppose you are 90 years old, living out your last days in your own home, in your familiar village surroundings, knowing your time is short. You cough, suddenly there is an ambulance pull up, with people who look like they have arrived from another planet, dressed in space suits and helmets with visors, and they proceed to carry you off to a strange hospital with strange-looking machines. Then they force a tube down your throat, nearly causing you to retch, filling your mouth with vomit, but they persist and get that tube painfully forced down your throat anyway. Now that machine is forcing you to breathe at a higher rate than you are accustomed to, and with a higher oxygen level than you are used to. They also hook you up to an IV, but your vein walls are so weak that the veins collapse and the IV fluid just backs up and does you no good at all.

 

You wonder, who are these strange people and why are they doing this to you? You are frightened, your 90-year-old heart is pounding. You can’t take this; soon, in a sigh of relief, you die.

 

They comfort each other and tell themselves they did their best.

 

No! They tortured you and killed you, when what they should have done is left you alone to die peacefully and with dignity, in your own bed at home. That was your right and they took it from you!

 

Now you tell me these researchers want to add your name to their Covid Wish List, to get that death rate up because it is TOO LOW for their liking?

 

I’d rather take my chances with “the virus”

.....a rare display of honesty.....?

 

I think the mask has slipped. 

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.....a rare display of honesty.....?

 

I think the mask has slipped. 

 

I hope not! It is keeping the virus away.

 

Have you noticed the numbers have started to come down?

 

We can't have that!

 

The Worldometer web site has figured out how to fix that:

 

"Due to delayed and incomplete reporting from New York State, we had to make adjustments to yesterday's totals in order to maintain the correct attribution of historical figures. US figures for Sunday, March 29 could still be incomplete"

 

They found another hundred to add on.

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Oh, and Fauci's latest is just as I expected.

 

He is now predicting 100,000 to 200,000 "but it would have been Millions if we didn't act when we did"

 

It is foolproof.

How can he be penalised for predicting millions to start with? If it were to come to pass, he is a great prophet. And if it doesn't, he takes credit for averting the catastrophe.

 

When it turns out to be the 40,000 or less that I am predicting, he is an even bigger hero.

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Oh, and Fauci's latest is just as I expected.

 

He is now predicting 100,000 to 200,000 "but it would have been Millions if we didn't act when we did"

 

It is foolproof.

How can he be penalised for predicting millions to start with? If it were to come to pass, he is a great prophet. And if it doesn't, he takes credit for averting the catastrophe.

 

When it turns out to be the 40,000 or less that I am predicting, he is an even bigger hero.

This is just shooting the messenger. Fauci knows far more about this than you and there is no reason whatever to think he is playing this crisis for personal advantage, as you so unpleasantly suggest.  

 

But at least all pretence that you are arguing scientifically can now be dispensed with. Perhaps you think the full hospitals in New York, like those in London, Italy and Spain are fake news, too. 

 

The numbers will go up for quite a while yet, especially in those areas have not got a full lockdown. In London we have been locked down for a fortnight and the rise in hospital admissions is, finally, starting to look linear rather than exponentially increasing. The London doctors are now thinking they might just manage to deal with the surge, albeit at the cost of requisitioning the largest exhibition hall in the city and turning it into a giant 4000 bed ICU. If we had stuck to the feeble social distancing measures you affect to think sufficient, the curve would still be an exponential and we would be heading for disaster.  

 

You are talking out of your arse. 

Edited by exchemist
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Covid 19 is not a hoax.
I am not and have never been a supporter of any republican politician.

Current case mortality rates:
4.8% World
1.8% USA
1.6% S Korea

Iceland has done the most testing by far (except for the Faeroe Islands), 4x more than Korea, 22x more than USA, so gives a much more accurate picture of actual mortality rate. They show a rate of infection 6.5x greater than USA, but their case mortality rate:
0.18%    

Other stats to consider:
0.0009% current USA covid 19 overall mortality rate
0.011% USA traffic fatality rate in 2017
0.024% USA 2017 seasonal flu overall mortality rate

So if/when 27 times more people than now have died from covid 19 we will have the same overall mortality rate as 2017 flu season (which was a bad one)

My speculation:

Virtually everywhere in the world is only testing those that present with serious symptoms.
As the numbers of tests go up and reveal more infections among those who aren't seriously ill (we already have data that suggest 50% of people who get it don't have symptoms!) it seems inevitable that the numbers of infected will skyrocket and the mortality rate will plummet.

This is a "novel" infection. That means we (as a species) have very little "herd immunity", that a relatively large number of people will get it in a short period. Given how widespread virus already is, how many people have it asymptomatically, it is impossible to eliminate - it is now irreversibly part of the human pathogen pool. The only way current wholesale closures and prohibitions might save lives is by preventing a glut of infectees such that some may not get access to ventilators. Otherwise, this virus will make its rounds, and those most at risk will die, just like every other infectious disease that affects us. Ultimately, i suspect covid 19 will have mortality rate similar to a bad year of seasonal flu.

Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/icelands-prolific-covid19-testing-is-telling-us-a-lot-about-the-outbreak/

Edited by flea
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Covid 19 is not a hoax.

I am not and have never been a supporter of any republican politician.

 

Current case mortality rates:

4.8% World

1.8% USA

1.6% S Korea

 

Iceland has done the most testing by far (except for the Faeroe Islands), 4x more than Korea, 22x more than USA, so gives a much more accurate picture of actual mortality rate. They show a rate of infection 6.5x greater than USA, but their case mortality rate:

0.18%    

 

Other stats to consider:

0.0009% current USA covid 19 overall mortality rate

0.011% USA traffic fatality rate in 2017

0.024% USA 2017 seasonal flu overall mortality rate

 

So if/when 27 times more people than now have died from covid 19 we will have the same overall mortality rate as 2017 flu season (which was a bad one)

 

My speculation:

 

Virtually everywhere in the world is only testing those that present with serious symptoms.

As the numbers of tests go up and reveal more infections among those who aren't seriously ill (we already have data that suggest 50% of people who get it don't have symptoms!) it seems inevitable that the numbers of infected will skyrocket and the mortality rate will plummet.

 

This is a "novel" infection. That means we (as a species) have very little "herd immunity", that a relatively large number of people will get it in a short period. Given how widespread virus already is, how many people have it asymptomatically, it is impossible to eliminate - it is now irreversibly part of the human pathogen pool. The only way current wholesale closures and prohibitions might save lives is by preventing a glut of infectees such that some may not get access to ventilators. Otherwise, this virus will make its rounds, and those most at risk will die, just like every other infectious disease that affects us. Ultimately, i suspect covid 19 will have mortality rate similar to a bad year of seasonal flu.

 

Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/icelands-prolific-covid19-testing-is-telling-us-a-lot-about-the-outbreak/

There's a couple of important distinctions that the stats you're using don't actually split up.

-People who died WITH covid19, vs people that died FROM covid19. Even the WHO statistics readily point out that most of the mortality rate is from people over 60, and the majority(over 70% IIRC) of those had pre-existing conditions that were likely aggravated by the infection(like COPD, cancers, auto-immunity issues, etc...) Comparative disease statistics need to also be unweighted by pre-existing to be moderately valid when you put them side by side, but WEIGHTED statistic for both (with existing conditions removed) make a far better comparison.

-Overall mortality rate vs mortality rate by age group and the above conditioning groups looks VERY different. Again, WHO datsets about older age brackets.

-Comparing apples and oranges(crash mortality vs disease mortality) in this case isn't really productive. You could just as easily include things like drug overdose. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db356.htm

 

That being said, here's some intersting links and data for comparison:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2014-2015.html?fbclid=IwAR0_JfMS7WMQIxFDvKSCirEbQibDfOcjqFMYGJQFXzftM6SH6hMW55yS6OU 2014-15 infuenza burden from the CDC (properly broken down by age bracket and screened of existing condition influence)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-strictly-by-the-numbers-the-coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/?fbclid=IwAR0Ve2heybUunPqQivG6WcssL_sQDS2oIFKAeA77BcpIQZsRp1exRkW67O4 globe and mail Op-ed on statistics.

 

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This is just shooting the messenger. Fauci knows far more about this than you and there is no reason whatever to think he is playing this crisis for personal advantage, as you so unpleasantly suggest.  

 

But at least all pretence that you are arguing scientifically can now be dispensed with. Perhaps you think the full hospitals in New York, like those in London, Italy and Spain are fake news, too. 

 

The numbers will go up for quite a while yet, especially in those areas have not got a full lockdown. In London we have been locked down for a fortnight and the rise in hospital admissions is, finally, starting to look linear rather than exponentially increasing. The London doctors are now thinking they might just manage to deal with the surge, albeit at the cost of requisitioning the largest exhibition hall in the city and turning it into a giant 4000 bed ICU. If we had stuck to the feeble social distancing measures you affect to think sufficient, the curve would still be an exponential and we would be heading for disaster.  

 

You are talking out of your arse. 

 

 

I am hoping and predicting that Fauci is wrong, and my predictions are based on a flu model.

 

I also want the numbers to drop.

 

You seem to be annoyed about that.

 

One can only assume you want the numbers to go up.

 

As for science, you threw that out the window some time ago when you just assumed that anyone with a mild flu-like illness, yourself included,  must have had covid, absent any testing. 

 

Maybe you were once a good scientist, but now your reasoning is being overruled by the climate of fear that has been created by people like Fauci. 

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Covid 19 is not a hoax.

I am not and have never been a supporter of any republican politician.

 

Current case mortality rates:

4.8% World

1.8% USA

1.6% S Korea

 

Iceland has done the most testing by far (except for the Faeroe Islands), 4x more than Korea, 22x more than USA, so gives a much more accurate picture of actual mortality rate. They show a rate of infection 6.5x greater than USA, but their case mortality rate:

0.18%    

 

Other stats to consider:

0.0009% current USA covid 19 overall mortality rate

0.011% USA traffic fatality rate in 2017

0.024% USA 2017 seasonal flu overall mortality rate

 

So if/when 27 times more people than now have died from covid 19 we will have the same overall mortality rate as 2017 flu season (which was a bad one)

 

My speculation:

 

Virtually everywhere in the world is only testing those that present with serious symptoms.

As the numbers of tests go up and reveal more infections among those who aren't seriously ill (we already have data that suggest 50% of people who get it don't have symptoms!) it seems inevitable that the numbers of infected will skyrocket and the mortality rate will plummet.

 

This is a "novel" infection. That means we (as a species) have very little "herd immunity", that a relatively large number of people will get it in a short period. Given how widespread virus already is, how many people have it asymptomatically, it is impossible to eliminate - it is now irreversibly part of the human pathogen pool. The only way current wholesale closures and prohibitions might save lives is by preventing a glut of infectees such that some may not get access to ventilators. Otherwise, this virus will make its rounds, and those most at risk will die, just like every other infectious disease that affects us. Ultimately, i suspect covid 19 will have mortality rate similar to a bad year of seasonal flu.

 

Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/icelands-prolific-covid19-testing-is-telling-us-a-lot-about-the-outbreak/

 

 

It's a shame that you feel the need to begin your post by announcing your political stripe, but it is understandable because anyone who takes a contrarian view to the mainstream one, of fear mongering, must be one of those terrible Trump supporters. At least, that is how the liberals see it.

 

I read a couple of posts on a liberal discussion board the other day. One wanted to see a higher death rate, just to damage Trump.

 

Another also wanted to see a higher death rate, but only in the red states, among Trump supporters!

 

Nice people!

 

Anyway, I also think this covid will present as another "bad flu" and that is serious in its own right! But it can be dealt with without shutting down entire cities or countries.

 

The fear mongering and extreme measures being enacted, as a result of the climate of fear, will have a cost far higher than the disease itself, in my opinion.

 

This is 2020, not 1918 when hygiene was almost non-existent. Most homes did not have a bath tub or running water, hand washing was for the ladies and not all of them, woman washed their hair once a month etc etc. There was never any reason to think that "millions were going to die" from this, in the US alone, as Dr. Fauci gravely predicted and started the climate of fear and outright panic!

 

I suppose I need to add a one-time-only disclaimer to please the liberals: I did not vote for Trump in the last election. As a patriotic US citizen, I try my best to support the President, whoever it may be. Now go get stuffed.

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This is 2020, not 1918 when hygiene was almost non-existent. Most homes did not have a bath tub or running water, hand washing was for the ladies and not all of them, woman washed their hair once a month etc etc.

indeed. we've got neat things like interferon promoters and anti-histamines. Two pills that dramatically change the likelihood of mortality if people bother to take the pills.

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No political comment required here is a report from the Lancet. 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

 

It depends on your age group as to how you will fair, 40+ the risks get worse per decade.

 

On a brighter note for the elderly, a 101 year old recovered and walked out of hospital in Italy.

That is the most informative work I've read yet. Haven't seen anyone else attempt to calculate (or even discuss) IFR.

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Eldritch Horror wrote: "-Comparing apples and oranges(crash mortality vs disease mortality) in this case isn't really productive. You could just as easily include things like drug overdose. https://www.cdc.gov/...riefs/db356.htm"

 

I know it doesn't help in scientific terms of understanding covid-19 - I included that for community policy consideration. When do we implement closures/prohibitions? Why don't we ban non-essential vehicle use to save a similar # of lives? A socio-political comment. I figured it wasn't inappropriate in this sub-forum.

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