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But please, don't .  City people always bring their troubles with them and the countryside vanishes.  First they complain about the dusty and muddy roads and demand pavement, then they complain about

Ocean, this is kinda wrong to blame on chinese, it could have happened anywhere and anytime. Let me explain by copy-pasting a reply of a friend of mine to a fb-petition asking to ban live animal marke

While I agree that we are all going to be infected at some time or other, I don't agree with your statement that there is a 3% mortality rate average over the entire population. There is no way that a

Ok, I do not know of the sources and hence reliability of these data, but here it is 1 in 4 under 50:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/

 

Sanctus, I think you are mixing up cases with death rates. Of course, there are many cases of people under 50 catching it, but there is a low fatality rate in that age group.

 

I know you are not doing that deliberately, but that is an example of the sort of inaccurate reporting that is out there now.

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No idea yet but i am looking for more upto date figures. Guessing I would say the 90+ figure will be much worse. 

 

Edit these figures were before the health system was over whelmed.

 

Italy may be inadvertently developing herd immunity, a policy apparently rejected by the UK government https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/15/21180414/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson Ultimately I think what oceanbreeze would like I think is to let the disease to ride its course and develop a herd immunity.

 

No, that isn't what I said. I do think that ultimately it will be either herd immunity or a vaccine that finally stops this, but I am not in favor of letting it run its course. I have said several times that flattening the curve is important. 

That can be done without shutting down entire countries.

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And to all the bedroom statisticians, "flu kills XXX per year, so what?". Well, did the flu ever kill 800 people in 1 country in one day? Or 569 in a day region <50km*50km (lombardy). That is the scary part.

 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, yes, the flu has done that and far more (1918) but nobody can draw any comfort from that fact.

 

One thing that many people miss in all this is the wording being used in the corona reports: “XXX amount of people have died after testing positive for coronavirus”

 

Notice that does not say “XXX amount of people have died from coronavirus”

 

I think that is an important distinction that needs to be made, but nobody seems interested in making, because panic is all the rage right now. Just because somebody tests positive and then dies, does not automatically mean that person’s death was caused by, or can be attributed exclusively to coronavirus.

 

That is obvious if that person gets hit by a bus but not so obvious if it is a heart attack or a stroke or any number of other serious health issues in an elderly person.

 

I really do think there is a lot of fake, or at least very exaggerated, news being reported about this. It is like some sort of mass hysteria that, once started, will be difficult to stop; even more difficult than the virus itself. The freedoms that we are willfully ceding to governments around the world now, may not ever be fully returned. To me, that is a bigger concern than catching a cold.

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How did these stats change now that italy is at 5.4k?

 

Here is a bit more info from another source, derived from multiple countries, the figures dont look quite so bad for the over 75s but it is still bad. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age All age groups are at risk, but the elderly and those with preexisting health problems are in deep **** if they get it. :(

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Unfortunately, yes, the flu has done that and far more (1918) but nobody can draw any comfort from that fact.

 

One thing that many people miss in all this is the wording being used in the corona reports: “XXX amount of people have died after testing positive for coronavirus”

 

Notice that does not say “XXX amount of people have died from coronavirus”

 

I think that is an important distinction that needs to be made, but nobody seems interested in making, because panic is all the rage right now. Just because somebody tests positive and then dies, does not automatically mean that person’s death was caused by, or can be attributed exclusively to coronavirus.

 

That is obvious if that person gets hit by a bus but not so obvious if it is a heart attack or a stroke or any number of other serious health issues in an elderly person.

 

I really do think there is a lot of fake, or at least very exaggerated, news being reported about this. It is like some sort of mass hysteria that, once started, will be difficult to stop; even more difficult than the virus itself. The freedoms that we are willfully ceding to governments around the world now, may not ever be fully returned. To me, that is a bigger concern than catching a cold.

However the spike in deaths in Italy is a real fact. 10 pages in the newspaper instead of 1 1/2 is testament to that.

 

One can argue that the excess deaths are merely those of the old, brought forward from the future by some months or years, but it is indisputable that death rates are elevated substantially while this epidemic is taking place.  

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However the spike in deaths in Italy is a real fact. 10 pages in the newspaper instead of 1 1/2 is testament to that.

 

One can argue that the excess deaths are merely those of the old, brought forward from the future by some months or years, but it is indisputable that death rates are elevated substantially while this epidemic is taking place.  

 

I totally agree that there is a spike in deaths in Italy since this epidemic hit there.

There is no doubt that many of these deaths are related to the virus.

But, that still does not make this virus the killer that it is being portrayed as; when you consider that most of these people were quite old and had other serious conditions. The virus was the last straw for them. That is very sad as these old people are a national treasure and losing so many all at once is tragic.

But we don't need to get into a panic over this and say things like the US or the UK is on track to be the next Italy.

That most likely will not be the case.

As for the lockdowns, this is dangerous overkill.

Just my opinion.

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I totally agree that there is a spike in deaths in Italy since this epidemic hit there.

There is no doubt that many of these deaths are related to the virus.

But, that still does not make this virus the killer that it is being portrayed as; when you consider that most of these people were quite old and had other serious conditions. The virus was the last straw for them. That is very sad as these old people are a national treasure and losing so many all at once is tragic.

But we don't need to get into a panic over this and say things like the US or the UK is on track to be the next Italy.

That most likely will not be the case.

As for the lockdowns, this is dangerous overkill.

Just my opinion.

 

Would you agree that it will kill more people than the common flu, and would you agree that it will have 10 to 30 times more fatalities than the flu from the data already in. Another link https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/13/21176735/covid-19-coronavirus-worse-than-flu-comparison

 

Regarding panic, I guess it depends how old you are. In a couple of weeks we will know what is happening in the UK and the US. Governments are supposed to try and protect their people, the money markets are a secondary consideration. 

 

Without the lock downs in Italy, the Italian infection rate would still be increasing. If they had put the measures in sooner, they MIGHT have it under control by now. 

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Posted (edited)

I want to take this time to tell you, I told you so I told you that biological weapons were this powerful to infect the entire world, you said I was mad but I called it. like "Oh, ya Mr. Medvil biological weapons and genetic weapons are less powerful than you say, you are exaggerating", This is absolute proof that they aren't as weak as you thought, this apparently wasn't even genetically engineered and infected like the entire world.

 

Edited by VictorMedvil
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Apparently not in Portugal. Some people in a government office have to register the deeds and they have all shut down. On this island there was one case of corona virus about a week ago, and no more since YET. The young woman involved only has a mild dose .  I guess if they get through the next week since the airports have shut down. The island might be in the clear, for a while. Hopefully they will then promptly reopen the government deeds office, and I can quickly finalize all my contracts. 

 

Then I am just faced with waiting for them to open the ports on the other islands, so I can move into my new house. 

 

Pessimistically corona virus will spread on the island and the government will stay in lock down, I will get a cough and a bit of a fever, and not be able to close the contract for the foreseeable future **** **** ****

I find it odd that nobody seems to know who has had Corona are who has died from it. Yet celebs seem to come down with it. I am really starting to think it may all be a planned psyops. Do you know anybody who has had it or who has died from it?

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I totally agree that there is a spike in deaths in Italy since this epidemic hit there.

There is no doubt that many of these deaths are related to the virus.

But, that still does not make this virus the killer that it is being portrayed as; when you consider that most of these people were quite old and had other serious conditions. The virus was the last straw for them. That is very sad as these old people are a national treasure and losing so many all at once is tragic.

But we don't need to get into a panic over this and say things like the US or the UK is on track to be the next Italy.

That most likely will not be the case.

As for the lockdowns, this is dangerous overkill.

Just my opinion.

I totally agree and that is just common sense and logic to think that.

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No, that isn't what I said. I do think that ultimately it will be either herd immunity or a vaccine that finally stops this, but I am not in favor of letting it run its course. I have said several times that flattening the curve is important. 

That can be done without shutting down entire countries.

I think part of their plan is to give everyone a vaccine. You have to ask the question who does this Corona virus benefit the most? First thing that comes to my mind is Big Pharma. I could just see them having checkpoints for the vaccine. Hopefully it don't come to that but only time will tell.

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It's not like any of that matters, all that matters is that you can get people to "Believe" you are the right choice. All politics is a (Well Funded Propaganda Machine) + (Popularity Prom King or Queen) = (Elected Official). I mean it goes back to the axiom that all politicians lie their *** off to get elected, it doesn't matter if its true or not only that the people "Believe" its true. That's why Trump hates the "Fake News" because it hurts the people's "Belief" that he was a good president or leader which is just a "Propaganda Machine" owned by 6 different corporations. This entire coronavirus situation is being created by the "Fake News" for some political agenda, you know it is, but what they may not realize is this bullshit costs people money, if people were wise they would slap the "Fake News" with a bill for the cost of this Fake Coronavirus crisis, that would straighten them up just fine them for like 5 trillion dollars or whatever this has cost the government thus far. If people really thought about it these "Fake News" people would be shot in the streets.

 

propaganda-quote-2-picture-quote-1.jpg

We should come together and sue the pants off of the mainstream media.

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Would you agree that it will kill more people than the common flu, and would you agree that it will have 10 to 30 times more fatalities than the flu from the data already in. Another link https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/13/21176735/covid-19-coronavirus-worse-than-flu-comparison

 

Regarding panic, I guess it depends how old you are. In a couple of weeks we will know what is happening in the UK and the US. Governments are supposed to try and protect their people, the money markets are a secondary consideration. 

 

Without the lock downs in Italy, the Italian infection rate would still be increasing. If they had put the measures in sooner, they MIGHT have it under control by now. 

 

I don't agree with any of that, especially the "10 to 30 times more fatalities than the flu" where are you getting that from? We don't have nearly enough data to make that sort of projection.

 

I tell you what, since we are all free to make up our own news, I am going to totally make up some numbers just to demonstrate what is really going on.

 

Day One at some nursing home in Washington State: 36 people die and autopsy reports show they all had Covid-19. No living people have been tested for Covid-19 at this point.

 

Day One Mathematical Fact: 36 deaths from Covid-19 / 36 people tested positive = 100% Death Rate! We are all going to die! Another Fact: 36 people tested positive / 36 people tested = 100% infection rate! We are all going to get infected and we are all going to die!

 

Day Two: 100 more people are tested and there are six positives.

 

Day Two Mathematical Fact: 36 people dead / 42 people positive = 86% Death Rate;  Also 42 people tested positive / 136 people tested = 31% infection rate  Hey, maybe some of us will get to live but this is serious!

 

Day Three: 500 more people are tested, There are 25 new positives and one more person has died.

 

Day Three mathematical Fact: 37 people dead / 67 people positive = 55% Death Rate; Also 67 people positive / 636 people tested = 10% infection rate. Looking better but still 100 x as infectios as the flu and 500 times more deadly. This is still serious.

 

Now let’s jump into Polymath’s time machine and take a look into the future:

 

Day 30: 200,000 more people are tested, there are 30,000 new positives and 500 more people have died. 537 people dead / 30,067 positives = 1.8% death rate Also 30,067 positives / 200,636 tested = 15% infection rate.

 

OK, That is enough for you to see the trend and maybe get the point I am making.

 

Death rate is really starting to come down but still high enough to be worried. But why is the rate of new cases going back up? Should we be worried about that? The fact is, the rate of new cases is mainly being determined by the rate of new testing. The tests just find what is already out there; you test more, you find more. That tells you little or nothing about  the infection rate!

 

If this follows a bell curve, as every other infectious disease has been shown to do, sooner rather than later the death rates and infection rates really start to come down and we end up realizing this was not much worse than the seasonal flu all along. Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve.

 

If you don’t believe me, maybe you will believe this guy?

 

Italy is a strange case. 25% of the population over 65 years old and many people much older than that. But there still must be some other contributing factors that we don’t know yet. The health care system broke down, the old people live in small isolated villages and word of excessive deaths didn’t get out fast enough, that sort of thing. We know some of this from earthquakes in remote areas of Italy where the true extent of loss of lives often is not known until many days later. It seems they had conditions that favored the virus and disfavored the old folks. Very sad. We are not all like Italy!

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I don't agree with any of that, especially the "10 to 30 times more fatalities than the flu" where are you getting that from? We don't have nearly enough data to make that sort of projection.

 

I tell you what, since we are all free to make up our own news, I am going to totally make up some numbers just to demonstrate what is really going on.

 

Day One at some nursing home in Washington State: 36 people die and autopsy reports show they all had Covid-19. No living people have been tested for Covid-19 at this point.

 

Day One Mathematical Fact: 36 deaths from Covid-19 / 36 people tested positive = 100% Death Rate! We are all going to die! Another Fact: 36 people tested positive / 36 people tested = 100% infection rate! We are all going to get infected and we are all going to die!

 

Day Two: 100 more people are tested and there are six positives.

 

Day Two Mathematical Fact: 36 people dead / 42 people positive = 86% Death Rate;  Also 42 people tested positive / 136 people tested = 31% infection rate  Hey, maybe some of us will get to live but this is serious!

 

Day Three: 500 more people are tested, There are 25 new positives and one more person has died.

 

Day Three mathematical Fact: 37 people dead / 67 people positive = 55% Death Rate; Also 67 people positive / 636 people tested = 10% infection rate. Looking better but still 100 x as infectios as the flu and 500 times more deadly. This is still serious.

 

Now let’s jump into Polymath’s time machine and take a look into the future:

 

Day 30: 200,000 more people are tested, there are 30,000 new positives and 500 more people have died. 537 people dead / 30,067 positives = 1.8% death rate Also 30,067 positives / 200,636 tested = 15% infection rate.

 

OK, That is enough for you to see the trend and maybe get the point I am making.

 

Death rate is really starting to come down but still high enough to be worried. But why is the rate of new cases going back up? Should we be worried about that? The fact is, the rate of new cases is mainly being determined by the rate of new testing. The tests just find what is already out there; you test more, you find more. That tells you little or nothing about  the infection rate!

 

If this follows a bell curve, as every other infectious disease has been shown to do, sooner rather than later the death rates and infection rates really start to come down and we end up realizing this was not much worse than the seasonal flu all along. Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve.

 

If you don’t believe me, maybe you will believe this guy?

 

Italy is a strange case. 25% of the population over 65 years old and many people much older than that. But there still must be some other contributing factors that we don’t know yet. The health care system broke down, the old people live in small isolated villages and word of excessive deaths didn’t get out fast enough, that sort of thing. We know some of this from earthquakes in remote areas of Italy where the true extent of loss of lives often is not known until many days later. It seems they had conditions that favored the virus and disfavored the old folks. Very sad. We are not all like Italy!

 

Yes I agree the curve will slow down and plateau as the weaker individuals die off sooner than the rest. 

 

The 10 to 30% came from my previous link

Covid_19_CFR_by_age_vs._US_Seasonal_Flu_

 

A comparison of flu death rates to Covid-19 deaths in China in the period leading up to the peak of the country’s outbreak. The exact fatality rate of Covid-19 is not yet known

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I don't agree with any of that, especially the "10 to 30 times more fatalities than the flu" where are you getting that from? We don't have nearly enough data to make that sort of projection.

 

I tell you what, since we are all free to make up our own news, I am going to totally make up some numbers just to demonstrate what is really going on.

 

Day One at some nursing home in Washington State: 36 people die and autopsy reports show they all had Covid-19. No living people have been tested for Covid-19 at this point.

 

Day One Mathematical Fact: 36 deaths from Covid-19 / 36 people tested positive = 100% Death Rate! We are all going to die! Another Fact: 36 people tested positive / 36 people tested = 100% infection rate! We are all going to get infected and we are all going to die!

 

Day Two: 100 more people are tested and there are six positives.

 

Day Two Mathematical Fact: 36 people dead / 42 people positive = 86% Death Rate;  Also 42 people tested positive / 136 people tested = 31% infection rate  Hey, maybe some of us will get to live but this is serious!

 

Day Three: 500 more people are tested, There are 25 new positives and one more person has died.

 

Day Three mathematical Fact: 37 people dead / 67 people positive = 55% Death Rate; Also 67 people positive / 636 people tested = 10% infection rate. Looking better but still 100 x as infectios as the flu and 500 times more deadly. This is still serious.

 

Now let’s jump into Polymath’s time machine and take a look into the future:

 

Day 30: 200,000 more people are tested, there are 30,000 new positives and 500 more people have died. 537 people dead / 30,067 positives = 1.8% death rate Also 30,067 positives / 200,636 tested = 15% infection rate.

 

OK, That is enough for you to see the trend and maybe get the point I am making.

 

Death rate is really starting to come down but still high enough to be worried. But why is the rate of new cases going back up? Should we be worried about that? The fact is, the rate of new cases is mainly being determined by the rate of new testing. The tests just find what is already out there; you test more, you find more. That tells you little or nothing about  the infection rate!

 

If this follows a bell curve, as every other infectious disease has been shown to do, sooner rather than later the death rates and infection rates really start to come down and we end up realizing this was not much worse than the seasonal flu all along. Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve.

 

If you don’t believe me, maybe you will believe this guy?

 

Italy is a strange case. 25% of the population over 65 years old and many people much older than that. But there still must be some other contributing factors that we don’t know yet. The health care system broke down, the old people live in small isolated villages and word of excessive deaths didn’t get out fast enough, that sort of thing. We know some of this from earthquakes in remote areas of Italy where the true extent of loss of lives often is not known until many days later. It seems they had conditions that favored the virus and disfavored the old folks. Very sad. We are not all like Italy!

Great points.

 

The Pope lives in Italy maybe he is sucking the life out of them. :lol:  :lol:

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Yes I agree the curve will slow down and plateau as the weaker individuals die off sooner than the rest. 

 

The 10 to 30% came from my previous link

Covid_19_CFR_by_age_vs._US_Seasonal_Flu_

 

A comparison of flu death rates to Covid-19 deaths in China in the period leading up to the peak of the country’s outbreak. The exact fatality rate of Covid-19 is not yet known

 

 

Then you know the 10X to 30X is meaningless.
 
Why would you ask me if I agree with it?
Edited by OceanBreeze
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