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I guess we can only hope that of the 5% that may need to be hospitalized, not all will require to be in the ICU on ventilators. But, even if only 10% of them do need ventilators, that is still 15,000 people versus 5,000 available ventilators.

 

Obviously, that is still a big problem but perhaps not an insurmountable one if the manufacturing industry can be mobilized to start producing ventilators to keep up with demand. Some auto assembly lines can roll out 100 new vehicles every hour! If enough assembly lines can be tooled up for making ventilators, they can make up the shortfall in a couple of weeks.

 

Of course, this is all just number wanking at this point because we just don’t have enough data to know what’s what.

 

Two things I do know for sure: 1) the media profits greatly from fanning the flames of a crisis. 2) These things do have a way of burning themselves out naturally.

 

Just think of the bush fires in Australia. At one point it seemed as if the entire country would be engulfed in flames, the next thing you know the rains came and everywhere is flooded.

 

With these pandemics, sooner or later the herd immunity kicks in. As more and more people get infected, more and more develop immunity and there are less and less getting infected. The main thing is to flatten the curve of infection rate so hospitals do not get overwhelmed; people need to stay at home to deal with their condition. People should not panic and run to the hospital and insist on being put on a ventilator unless they really need it.

 

I have witnessed people having a panic attack and they have the same shortness of breath that this covid-19 causes, so I can conceivably see many people being put on ventilators who do not really need them.

 

The media needs to be calming people; not causing them to panic.

 

I think that is the best advice anybody can give. Do not run to the hospitals and panic. Not to mention if you do go to the hospital they will put you atleast in the US probably a military base or something like that away from the public. Then you will really be a Guinea pig.lol!

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But please, don't .  City people always bring their troubles with them and the countryside vanishes.  First they complain about the dusty and muddy roads and demand pavement, then they complain about

Ocean, this is kinda wrong to blame on chinese, it could have happened anywhere and anytime. Let me explain by copy-pasting a reply of a friend of mine to a fb-petition asking to ban live animal marke

While I agree that we are all going to be infected at some time or other, I don't agree with your statement that there is a 3% mortality rate average over the entire population. There is no way that a

I guess we can only hope that of the 5% that may need to be hospitalized, not all will require to be in the ICU on ventilators. But, even if only 10% of them do need ventilators, that is still 15,000 people versus 5,000 available ventilators.

 

Obviously, that is still a big problem but perhaps not an insurmountable one if the manufacturing industry can be mobilized to start producing ventilators to keep up with demand. Some auto assembly lines can roll out 100 new vehicles every hour! If enough assembly lines can be tooled up for making ventilators, they can make up the shortfall in a couple of weeks.

 

Of course, this is all just number wanking at this point because we just don’t have enough data to know what’s what.

 

Two things I do know for sure: 1) the media profits greatly from fanning the flames of a crisis. 2) These things do have a way of burning themselves out naturally.

 

Just think of the bush fires in Australia. At one point it seemed as if the entire country would be engulfed in flames, the next thing you know the rains came and everywhere is flooded.

 

With these pandemics, sooner or later the herd immunity kicks in. As more and more people get infected, more and more develop immunity and there are less and less getting infected. The main thing is to flatten the curve of infection rate so hospitals do not get overwhelmed; people need to stay at home to deal with their condition. People should not panic and run to the hospital and insist on being put on a ventilator unless they really need it.

 

I have witnessed people having a panic attack and they have the same shortness of breath that this covid-19 causes, so I can conceivably see many people being put on ventilators who do not really need them.

 

The media needs to be calming people; not causing them to panic.

 

When does the media ever calm people down? They are 24 hours of fear porn. Why I stopped watching the mainstream media years and years ago. I do my own research and make my own decision on what news I want to know about. I could care less about who murdered or stabbed who in the nightly news every night. The world would be a lot better off if we all got off the addiction of the mainstream media selling us fear.

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I guess we can only hope that of the 5% that may need to be hospitalized, not all will require to be in the ICU on ventilators. But, even if only 10% of them do need ventilators, that is still 15,000 people versus 5,000 available ventilators.

 

Obviously, that is still a big problem but perhaps not an insurmountable one if the manufacturing industry can be mobilized to start producing ventilators to keep up with demand. Some auto assembly lines can roll out 100 new vehicles every hour! If enough assembly lines can be tooled up for making ventilators, they can make up the shortfall in a couple of weeks.

 

Of course, this is all just number wanking at this point because we just don’t have enough data to know what’s what.

 

Two things I do know for sure: 1) the media profits greatly from fanning the flames of a crisis. 2) These things do have a way of burning themselves out naturally.

 

Just think of the bush fires in Australia. At one point it seemed as if the entire country would be engulfed in flames, the next thing you know the rains came and everywhere is flooded.

 

With these pandemics, sooner or later the herd immunity kicks in. As more and more people get infected, more and more develop immunity and there are less and less getting infected. The main thing is to flatten the curve of infection rate so hospitals do not get overwhelmed; people need to stay at home to deal with their condition. People should not panic and run to the hospital and insist on being put on a ventilator unless they really need it.

 

I have witnessed people having a panic attack and they have the same shortness of breath that this covid-19 causes, so I can conceivably see many people being put on ventilators who do not really need them.

 

The media needs to be calming people; not causing them to panic.

Yes, some truth in that, though it is a fine balance. What we DO want is for the public to appreciate the importance of hand-washing and avoiding crowded spaces and for the vulnerable groups to keep away and get other people to do their shopping etc. 

 

You are obviously right that in the long run herd immunity will probably allow things to go back to normal, and it will become a seasonal endemic virus like "flu".

 

The present extreme measures, however, are to try to manage the short term stress on the health system, so that it does not break down at some point in the next 3 months - which it quite easily could, cf. Italy (and probably China, though they won't tell us). If that were to happen, the effect on public trust in government could be seriously shaken and a lot of nasty social and political consequences could ensure. As it is, we face a global recession with a lot of small business bankruptcies and a lot of people thrown out of work. I am preparing myself to expect the value of my savings to be halved in the short term, though I hope I'm wrong of course. 

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Putting this into perspective about 500 000 people die each year on average. There will be a blip of < 20% in the stats. 

 

Are you allowing for any overlap in those numbers?

I mean, of the 500,000 who die every year, how many of them who will would die anyway, due to old age and other conditions, be swept up in the 90,000 whose deaths are attributed to corona? I suspect it could be a quite high percaentage of the 90,000, meaning the total deaths will not be much higher than normal.

Or am I wrong?

 

I was thinking that after I posted it and went for a walk. The other thing is those figures assume the entire population is infected, which over time might be possible, in the short term it is unlikely, so those deaths attributed to corona virus might be significantly less than 90000. If it assumed only 50% of the population get it, the figures look much better. China managed to contain the outbreak, it has a much larger population than the UK, and had no where near 90000 deaths. There is still the possibility it could break out some where else in China! 

 

The fact that vaccines are starting to come to the market, might make the figures better. 

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I was thinking that after I posted it and went for a walk. The other thing is those figures assume the entire population is infected, which over time might be possible, in the short term it is unlikely, so those deaths attributed to corona virus might be significantly less than 90000. If it assumed only 50% of the population get it, the figures look much better. China managed to contain the outbreak, it has a much larger population than the UK, and had no where near 90000 deaths. There is still the possibility it could break out some where else in China! 

 

The fact that vaccines are starting to come to the market, might make the figures better. 

 

The vaccines aren't coming to market anytime soon they just started doing trials. Even if they push it through as fast as possible which is deadly it would still be a few months.

Edited by Thoth101
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Maybe this crisis pushes us into frugality.

 

It is very likely to drive the world economy into a recession.

 

Where I live now we had one case, and the government closed down all but the essential businesses, and stopped inter island flights. For tourists in the islands they are now stuck. For anyone wanting to do business they are screwed. Even the attorneys and legal offices have all closed down, anyone wanting to make contracts are screwed indefinitely. businesses have almost all ceased working, ie its a enforced recession. 

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You had me feeling sympathetic until you mentioned the attorneys

 

Them attorneys running for cover is what is causing me some stress just now. I need to close a contract, and due to the perceived high risk of the corona virus, ie one ****ing case from a tourist. They have all shut up shop indefinitely. **** **** **** **** ****

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Them attorneys running for cover is what is causing me some stress just now. I need to close a contract, and due to the perceived high risk of the corona virus, ie one ****ing case from a tourist. They have all shut up shop indefinitely. **** **** **** **** ****

Look at the bright side. It will shortly be a great time to invest in stocks when they are all down. If you invest in the right ones you could make quite a chunk of cash when they go back up.

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While I agree that we are all going to be infected at some time or other, I don't agree with your statement that there is a 3% mortality rate average over the entire population. There is no way that anyone can possibly know that.

 

The 3% mortality rate is only among confirmed cases and most of those confirmed cases are people who have severe symptoms that require medical attention, and so have been tested for the virus.

 

The actual number of people who have been infected, but who have Not become ill enough to seek medical help and who have not been tested, is much higher. When you use that total number of people as your denominator, the real mortality rate drops down to something much lower than 3%; perhaps as low as other flu-type infections such as H1N1 which killed about 13,000 in the US and some 250,000 around the world.

 

I am not going so far as to call COVID-19 fake news, as it is killing a lot of people, but the fact is these are mostly elderly people who have other pre-existing conditions. I don't understand the extreme measures being taken that, in my opinion, just cause mass panic and do more harm than good.

 

I think people have been fixating on too many walking-dead-type Hollywood scenarios and are not thinking logically about this.

 

 

Hmmm looks like somebody has been reading my posts

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The gardenia in front of the house where I live has been affected by a tremendous plague of lice. What would gardenia lack to be so sick? I put vegetable ash, ferrous sulfate and generic fertilizer in the base soil and watered it. Some time later the leaves of the gardenia became brighter and the plague disappeared ...

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The gardenia in front of the house where I live has been affected by a tremendous plague of lice. What would gardenia lack to be so sick? I put vegetable ash, ferrous sulfate and generic fertilizer in the base soil and watered it. Some time later the leaves of the gardenia became brighter and the plague disappeared ...

 

Good point. Very much like the lice killing off an unhealthy garden, this covid-19 pandemic seems to be killing primarily people who are vulnerable due to other pre-existing health problems. That includes the frail elderly people who have already been given a death sentence by being sent to nursing homes.

 

People with heart disease, diabetes, obesity etc who are also somewhat older, but not elderly, are not strong enough to fight off a flu-like infection, are also more vulnerable to fall victim to this illness. I can’t find a single documented case of covid-19 killing anybody under the age of 30 who was in otherwise good health.

 

Did you know that malaria kills about 1.2 million people every year and TB about the same amount? And these are people who are both young and old, and otherwise healthy. But here we are in an absolute panic about a disease that has so far killed about 100 Americans, many of whom were in nursing homes already on their death beds! WTF is going on?

 

The more I am learning about this pandemic, the less I fear it and the more I fear the government taking away freedoms that may not ever be given back. What is happening to our freedoms now is exactly what socialists like “Bernie” Sanders have been scheming for.

 

Before you say “what about Italy”, “what about China”, I believe you will find in Italy the dead are mainly old people with pre-existing conditions. It is a shame to see so many go all at once but sometimes that is the way Nature works. In China it was mostly older people and males who were smokers. There is a also high incidence of TB in China and I suspect, without evidence to support me, that many of the corona victims also had TB. That is the type of co-morbidity that does not exist in the US and I predict the deaths here will be much, much less although the government will no doubt claim that is due to the draconian measures being enacted.

 

People who don’t take care of their own health, by not exercising and not eating properly, resulting in their increased vulnerability to an otherwise non-fatal illness, should not expect the rest of us to submit to martial law and remain prisoners in our own homes just to protect them.

 

Here is a hard fact for everyone: Old people dying is perfectly natural; nobody lives forever.

By all means encourage people to follow basic common-sense practices like washing their hands but don’t take away our freedoms under the guise of protecting us from a bad cold.

 

 

I know this is an alternative view from what you all have been seeing in the media. Only time will tell which view is correct.

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Good point. Very much like the lice killing off an unhealthy garden, this covid-19 pandemic seems to be killing primarily people who are vulnerable due to other pre-existing health problems. That includes the frail elderly people who have already been given a death sentence by being sent to nursing homes.

 

People with heart disease, diabetes, obesity etc who are also somewhat older, but not elderly, are not strong enough to fight off a flu-like infection, are also more vulnerable to fall victim to this illness. I can’t find a single documented case of covid-19 killing anybody under the age of 30 who was in otherwise good health.

 

Did you know that malaria kills about 1.2 million people every year and TB about the same amount? And these are people who are both young and old, and otherwise healthy. But here we are in an absolute panic about a disease that has so far killed about 100 Americans, many of whom were in nursing homes already on their death beds! WTF is going on?

 

The more I am learning about this pandemic, the less I fear it and the more I fear the government taking away freedoms that may not ever be given back. What is happening to our freedoms now is exactly what socialists like “Bernie” Sanders have been scheming for.

 

Before you say “what about Italy”, “what about China”, I believe you will find in Italy the dead are mainly old people with pre-existing conditions. It is a shame to see so many go all at once but sometimes that is the way Nature works. In China it was mostly older people and males who were smokers. There is a also high incidence of TB in China and I suspect, without evidence to support me, that many of the corona victims also had TB. That is the type of co-morbidity that does not exist in the US and I predict the deaths here will be much, much less although the government will no doubt claim that is due to the draconian measures being enacted.

 

People who don’t take care of their own health, by not exercising and not eating properly, resulting in their increased vulnerability to an otherwise non-fatal illness, should not expect the rest of us to submit to martial law and remain prisoners in our own homes just to protect them.

 

Here is a hard fact for everyone: Old people dying is perfectly natural; nobody lives forever.

By all means encourage people to follow basic common-sense practices like washing their hands but don’t take away our freedoms under the guise of protecting us from a bad cold.

 

 

I know this is an alternative view from what you all have been seeing in the media. Only time will tell which view is correct.

Very well said. And the way it is looking and the media is promoting so much fear. I feel this has all been planned. Like you said so they can take more of our freedoms away and also crash the economy. This is another way for them to make us all go digital also. Because they can say handheld money is to dangerous and spreads viruses. I am with you brother. And what you say is very true. When the media is promoting something like this it send red flags up that something more planned and sinister is going on and that something is behind it and it is a manufactured crisis.

 

And even if they didn't manufacture it totally and it accidently got out the Wuhan Lab you know what they say is "never let a good crisis go to waste."

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Look at the bright side. It will shortly be a great time to invest in stocks when they are all down. If you invest in the right ones you could make quite a chunk of cash when they go back up.

 

You dont think I havent already noticed this little opportunity. :) 

 

 

 

 

And even if they didn't manufacture it totally and it accidently got out the Wuhan Lab you know what they say is "never let a good crisis go to waste."

 

every cloud has a silver lining 

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