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Is Meteorology An Exact Science?


Abe40

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I have often wondered if meteorology is an exact science, how come whether forecasts by meteorological stations are sometimes off the mark, when they predict rain, the sun shines; how come?

Edited by Abe40
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Weather is a chaotic phenomena so complex that the smallest event can have large effects over time. Forecasts are generated by weather modeling computers which cannot take into account all small events, therefore they cannot always give accurate predictions.

 

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere on a given place and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve on that place. ...

reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting
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  • 2 weeks later...

One day it will be

 

all it takes is power (CPU)

 

in Some Countries with mediocre weather patterns its actually pretty exact,

 

even wind direction down to a degree in full 3d is possible...

 

and if the population is really low you can even account for local flatulence and work that into your data set...

 

but then of course you would need data on baked bean sales, typical consumption times (adjust too ad breaks at the right time of TV Dinner),

absorption rates of the beans, typical health of the populous ... etc etc - and yeah you could - waft a fart of your own in the opposite direction of one

that is about too fart - and counteract the greenhouse effect by directing that precious methane into a reservoir of choosing....

 

and its all available in realtime on your iPhone!!!

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  • 2 months later...

There are several points in this thread that I believe merit clarification.

 

First, Abe40, I wonder how you would define an exact science. Meteorology uses well established models, based on detailed observations and sound physical principles. I suggest it is as exact as you can get.

 

Can quantum mechanics be called an exact science? I think so, yet Heisenberg's uncertainty principle lies at its heart.

 

Turtle, I understand that the weather patterns are only sometimes chaotic, at other times they are simply very complex. I read of research, in the last decade, recognising that there are indicators of which state it is in. This allows us to assign greater or lesser confidence to predictions.

 

Sculptor, for the reasons stated above I believe your opinion is flawed.

 

ErlyRiser, because the weather is sometimes chaotic computing power will not solve the problem.

 

Gregb, micro-climates exist. Fifty years ago when weather forecasting was much more limited than today I was able to get a reliable read of the days weather and perhaps the following, by modifying the forecast in the light of our local conditions. Much more local forecasts are made today, but the same principle can apply and turn apparent error into success.

 

SocialistAurora, I only mention your name, so you won't feel left out. :)

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