REASON Posted December 11, 2009 Report Share Posted December 11, 2009 Yeah Turtle, why can't these so called "experts" be always right all the time instead of always wrong? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 11, 2009 Report Share Posted December 11, 2009 Hi Turtle, thanks for your comment.Yes, I have seen the small sunspot of today, even I have seen it yesterday.And now, they call this "beginning of cycle 24" ... well, sunspot #1034 isn't at the end of cycle 24 is it? it's not cycle 23 is it? it's not the middle of cycle 24 is it? so, it's at the beginning of cycle 24. so what? this happend now several times in the last 12 months!!!Each new spot was called "the beginning" - and then followed again a period of ZERO ... I bet, now it will be the same :wave: kind regards Felix so how have you calculated the odds on which you lay your bet? how much do you bet? what is your expertise Sir? Yeah Turtle, why can't these so called "experts" be always right all the time instead of always wrong? i know that's rhetorical, so i'll respond humorical. :hihi: much as we like to malign the "experts", and i make no exception of myself from we, if it weren't for them we wouldn't know jack-**** and never have anything to question in the first place. science is always amendable. :) Chacmool 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abx-sun Posted December 12, 2009 Report Share Posted December 12, 2009 well, sunspot #1034 isn't at the end of cycle 24 is it? it's not cycle 23 is it? it's not the middle of cycle 24 is it? so, it's at the beginning of cycle 24. so what? :) For counting the cycles I refer to this graphsolar cycles 12 22 23which is based on data from NOAASolar Cycle Progression and Prediction :Glasses::doh: :):eek2: BrianG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 12, 2009 Report Share Posted December 12, 2009 For counting the cycles I refer to this graphsolar cycles 12 22 23which is based on data from NOAASolar Cycle Progression and Prediction :eek_big::shrug: :hyper::):Alien: roger. i can work with that. now, notice on the graph that cycle 23 is bottomed out (or nearly so), which means it has ended/is ending. as i have explained a number of times earlier here in this thread, the cycle a spot belongs to is determined by its magnetic polarity and lattitude. the few recent spots all belong to cycle 24, so this means cycle 24 is started and we are at the beginning. as to scientists "admitting" uncertainty, your link makes clear there is only 60% agreement on the latest prediction, which is in effect saying "we don't know" with greater than 60% probability. again, were it not for "them" there would be no discussion whatever. what exactly is the root of your discontent? :thumbs_up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abx-sun Posted December 14, 2009 Report Share Posted December 14, 2009 again, were it not for "them" there would be no discussion whatever. what exactly is the root of your discontent? ;) Well, the last question is answered simply by the fact, that tables of Sunspot predictions are prepared and distributed by NOAA with HIGH and LOW values as can be seen here:http://db0res.dyndns.org:8080/cmd?cmd=READ+SOLAR+3691 regards Felix HB9ABX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 14, 2009 Report Share Posted December 14, 2009 Well, the last question is answered simply by the fact, that tables of Sunspot predictions are prepared and distributed by NOAA with HIGH and LOW values as can be seen here:http://db0res.dyndns.org:8080/cmd?cmd=READ+SOLAR+3691 regards Felix HB9ABX this is no more, nor less, than the standard suite of statistical methods found throughout all the sciences. your anxiety is misplaced. if you have your own predictions to proffer, please post them and your methods. in the mean time, you may find me in repose waiting to see what happens next. :) SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroidsDaily Sun: 14 Dec. 09 New-cycle sunspot 1034 has reversed its decline and is growing again. Credit: SOHO/MDI SOHO main page: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Homepage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abx-sun Posted December 14, 2009 Report Share Posted December 14, 2009 this is no more, nor less, than the standard suite of statistical methods ... ... [/url] @ Turtle: :)Please see once more:sunspot-08-09.htmlBased on August 2008 prediction we should now have a SS number between 35 and 75, and the reality is 5, therefore I think that your math is really wrong.This difference does by far not correspond to the 35 percent deviation for HIGH and LOW found in the graphs. This does not mean, that math as science is wrong, but the use of the the math tools should be made with more care. That is, why I wrote two days ago:Would it not be wiser if the "experts" would say: We cannot make any valid prediction, as the present behaving of the sun is completely out of the our knowledge ? You see the point ? :doh:;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 14, 2009 Report Share Posted December 14, 2009 ...That is, why I wrote two days ago:Would it not be wiser if the "experts" would say: We cannot make any valid prediction, as the present behaving of the sun is completely out of the our knowledge ? You see the point ? ;):doh: no i don't see the point. well yes, i understand what you are saying, but you are mistaken. which is good because that's how you, and they, progress is by making mistakes. how shall we learn to make "better" predictions, if we make no predictions at all? if this all vexes you so much, stop reading the predictions. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted January 8, 2010 Report Share Posted January 8, 2010 over the 3 weeks since the last posts, new-cycle-24 sunspot activity has picked up. :naughty: spot #35 mentioned in this article has re-emerged from its trip round the "back" and is re-numbered spot #40. (disregard the mention of astronomers "predicting" here if it irritates you. ) :shrug: Solar Activity is Picking Up | Universe TodayDecember 16th, 2009 ...The current solar cycle (24) has been pretty boring, but a new sunspot — 1035 — is growing rapidly and now is seven times wider than Earth. Solar astronomers are predicting it could grow to be the largest sunspot of the year....There's been other action recently besides the new sunspot. A long-duration C4-class solar flare erupted this morning at 0120 UT from around the sunspot, which hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards Earth. (See below for image of the CME that blasted off the sun on Dec. 14) Observers at high-latitude could see some aurora action when the CME arrives on or about Dec. 18th. SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroidsJanuary 8, 2010 SUNSPOT RESURRECTED: Old and decaying sunspot 1035, declared to be "a corpse" just yesterday, is showing signs of renewed life. note that you can review the daily reports at spaceweather.com by changing the dates in the side-bar-box on the top-right of their main page. never look directly at the sun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted February 16, 2010 Report Share Posted February 16, 2010 i think this thread has run its course. we have had only 2 spotless days in 2010. while i haven't seen authorities declare the deep minimum is over, i'll hazzard that assessment. :lol: :steering: Spotless DaysCurrent Stretch: 0 days2010 total: 2 days (4%)2009 total: 260 days (71%)Since 2004: 772 daysTypical Solar Min: 485 daysexplanation | more infoUpdated 15 Feb 2010 SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted June 15, 2011 Report Share Posted June 15, 2011 well, the solar minimum is over and if nothing else we now know that there is too always something new under the sun! :smilingsun: New Insights on How Solar Minimums Affect Earth @ spacedaily.com Since 1611, humans have recorded the comings and goings of black spots on the sun. The number of these sunspots waxes and wanes over approximately an 11-year cycle - more sunspots generally mean more activity and eruptions on the sun and vice versa. The number of sunspots can change from cycle to cycle, and 2008 saw the longest and weakest solar minimum since scientists have been monitoring the sun with space-based instruments. Observations have shown, however, that magnetic effects on Earth due to the sun, effects that cause the aurora to appear, did not go down in synch with the cycle of low magnetism on the sun. Now, a paper in Annales Geophysicae that appeared on May 16, 2011 reports that these effects on Earth did in fact reach a minimum - indeed they attained their lowest levels of the century - but some eight months later. The scientists believe that factors in the speed of the solar wind, and the strength and direction of the magnetic fields embedded within it, helped produce this anomalous low. ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowalskil Posted August 12, 2011 Report Share Posted August 12, 2011 Okay... From a very very high level, yes, the sun drives climate. However, we cannot forget about AGW just for that reason, and I call your attention to the following: ... Thank you for convincing evidence.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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