Nasa Arctic Ice "GONE" By 2013

[cyclonebuster]

Arctic melting

Climate scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, outside Washington, say the Arctic Ocean could be entirely ice free in late summer 2013.

 

"The sea ice is decreasing faster than all the models predicted," says Jay Zwally, the ice satellite project scientist at NASA Goddard, "We not only have the warming of the atmosphere, we have a warming of the ocean that is affecting this. It has been surprising to everybody, this decrease in area. This is a marked departure, and this is suggesting to us that maybe we are getting at this tipping point."

 

 

VOA News - NASA Scientists See Hastened Arctic Warming

http://www.voanews.com/mediaassets/e...ngPoint_bb.wmv

 

Better build my "TUNNELS" Now!:doh::doh:

[DougF]

Good article although I think you should have put in the "Global warming" thread (a hot topic)

http://hypography.com/forums/environmental-studies/4881-global-warming.html

 

one line from the first article linked.

All climate models have variability and the possibility that melting trends may lead to results less severe than predicted.

I don't think all the numbers are in yet to predict that.

 

and the second link doesn't seem to work.

[InfiniteNow]

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

 

 

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

 

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

The minimum ice extent reached in September 2007 shattered the previous record for ice withdrawal set in 2005, of 5.32 million square km.

 

The long-term average minimum, based on data from 1979 to 2000, is 6.74 million square km. In comparison, 2007 was lower by 2.61 million square km, an area approximately equal to the size of Alaska and Texas combined, or the size of 10 United Kingdoms.

"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040."

 

 

 

 

"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly."

~Professor Peter Wadhams

[cyclonebuster]

Better build my "TUNNELS" Now!

[C1ay]

If so, it will not be the first time. Earth has gone through numerous tropical and ice ages...

[InfiniteNow]

If so, it will not be the first time. Earth has gone through numerous tropical and ice ages...

 

And now many of those have occurred during the tenure of homo sapien?

 

Whether natural, anthropogenic, or the more likely combination of both... what is happening will impact our ability to survive, so concern is warranted.

 

 

"Hey... no worries, brotha... It happens every few millenia."

"Yes, but my child is alive now, and may not be tomorrow."

 

 

:doh:

 

 

:eek:

[C1ay]

Whether natural, anthropogenic, or the more likely combination of both... what is happening will impact our ability to survive, so concern is warranted.

 

Certainly concern is warranted but man should face the facts as well. Earth experiences this cycle naturally and man doesn't have the means to control it. As much as we may want to change history we probably haven't advanced enough ourselves to do so. Man's actions may or may not contribute to an acceleration of this natural cycle but either way, a warmer planet is in the future (barring a major volcanic eruption). Like a climber planning for Everest or a nomad crossing the desert, man should prepare for what's inevitable, a warmer planet.

[cyclonebuster]

Certainly concern is warranted but man should face the facts as well. Earth experiences this cycle naturally and man doesn't have the means to control it. As much as we may want to change history we probably haven't advanced enough ourselves to do so. Man's actions may or may not contribute to an acceleration of this natural cycle but either way, a warmer planet is in the future (barring a major volcanic eruption). Like a climber planning for Everest or a nomad crossing the desert, man should prepare for what's inevitable, a warmer planet.

 

Man doesn't have the means to control it? What you think we are doing now?

[freeztar]

Man doesn't have the means to control it? What you think we are doing now?

 

We're not controlling it, we're (until recently) ignoring our contributions. Control implies the ability to manipulate at will.

 

The extreme climate control methods that have been suggested are a bit frightening to me at our current level of understanding.

 

I agree with C1ay that we should prepare for climate change regardless of the cause.

 

Not to omit my bias though (:)) I'm of the camp that believes in anthropogenic warming trends.

 

As far as the Arctic ice, only time will tell...

[C1ay]

Man doesn't have the means to control it? What you think we are doing now?

 

As I said before, man may or may not be contributing to a natural cycle. We are not controlling anything.

 

Take a look at this for an idea of man's contribution to the problem...

[InfiniteNow]

As I said before, man may or may not be contributing to a natural cycle. We are not controlling anything.

Let's please try to keep this thread about the fact that the ice will be gone in less than 30 years instead of AGAIN arguing why.

[C1ay]

Let's please try to keep this thread about the fact that the ice will be gone in less than 30 years instead of AGAIN arguing why.

 

So what should we do about it besides learning to accept the inevitable? Should we explore David Keith's idea to inject a huge cloud of ash into the atmosphere, to deflect sunlight and heat simulating a volcanic eruption? This would cool the planet in the same way that nature does but it could yield another ice age. Which are we better equipped to adapt to, a tropical planet or a frozen tundra?

[cyclonebuster]

So if we remove the CO2 we are creating the temps. come back down if not they continue to rise. Sounds like we can control CO2 to regulate temps. If we can regulate CO2 then we can regulate climate.

[InfiniteNow]

We must certainly alter our impacts, but to C1ay's point, even if we stop ALL carbon dioxide contributions today, the forcing will continue for a few more decades.

 

Per the ideas to make solar umbrellas or inject huge amounts of ash into the atmosphere... etc... that doesn't strike me as the most intelligent solution. It directly implies that we've still failed to learn that our actions have unintended consequences.

 

Coupled with just "learning to accept it," we must also learn how do survive now differently. Change our contributions, change our approach, and change the efficiency of our air conditioning units and water filtration system, because it's gonna get hot. :)

[cyclonebuster]

We must certainly alter our impacts, but to C1ay's point, even if we stop ALL carbon dioxide contributions today, the forcing will continue for a few more decades.

 

Per the ideas to make solar umbrellas or inject huge amounts of ash into the atmosphere... etc... that doesn't strike me as the most intelligent solution. It directly implies that we've still failed to learn that our actions have unintended consequences.

 

Coupled with just "learning to accept it," we must also learn how do survive now differently. Change our contributions, change our approach, and change the efficiency of our air conditioning units and water filtration system, because it's gonna get hot. ;)

 

Here is my idea to end it. Anybody listening? :)

 

http://hypography.com/forums/earth-science/12992-ubderwater-suspension-tunnels-prevent-global-warming.html

[CraigD]

Wow!

 

It should be pointed out that, far beyond

… the fact that the ice will be gone in less than 30 years instead of AGAIN arguing why.

the VOA article quotes NASA Goddard’s Jay Zwally’s speculation that the Artic Ocean could be entirely ice free in 2013 – that is, 5.5 years from now!

As far as the Arctic ice, only time will tell...

As far as Zwally’s speculation goes, not much time is needed.

 

A critical speculation from the NASA Goddard scientists is that the Artic has reached at “tipping point” where the rapid loss of its ice is, barring catastrophically extreme influences, is inevitable. Even if a radical artificial action, such as dramatic curtailment of manmade [ce]CO2[/ce] output, increase in ocean or other uptake, or artificial or natural sun-blocking aerosols, are unlikely to prevent the loss of ice, just as pulling back your hand from a glass you’ve just pushed past its tipping point won’t cause the glass to upright itself.

 

My main question, however, is, assuming Zwally et. all’s speculations prove true, what then?

 

First, we should note a fundamental trait of artic ice – most of it is floating, so its melting won’t increase the global sea level.

 

One of the speculative “doomsday” scenarios involving artic melting is that release of less dense fresh water will cause the warm northwest flowing Atlantic current to submerge and flow south at a more southern latitude, resulting in the northeast US, Ireland, England, and coastal Europe to become much colder. Already, there has been an unexpected amount of artic melting, but to the best of my knowledge, no evidence of this scenario coming true. This is, I think, very good news.

 

Assuming the US and UK climate emerge OK from a total Artic Ocean thaw by 2013, what does a much warmer Artic mean for the rest of the world?

 

Obviously, an open Artic ocean becomes navigable. Northern Alaska is now about the same distance from Liverpool as is New York. The north coast of Sibera becomes one of the longest coasts in the world, possible continuously ice free. The geopolitical and economic consequences of this, and of the warming climate near the Artic Circle, boggle my imagination.

 

For some specialized artic wildlife (most famously polar bears), an iceless Artic Ocean is obviously catastrophic, potentially spelling their extinction. However, it’s potentially beneficial for humans and other species.

 

It’s an interesting time to be alive. :)

[cyclonebuster]

"Already, there has been an unexpected amount of artic melting, but to the best of my knowledge, no evidence of this scenario coming true. This is, I think, very good news."

 

Not such good news!

 

NASA - NASA Examines Arctic Sea Ice Changes Leading to Record Low in 2007