Peak Oil. When will we run out? What will it mean?

[Michaelangelica]

I have just watched a fascinating programme on Peak Oil. When will we run out? What will it mean? An excellent long (1 hour) documentary made by the ABC.

(I am surprised there is no thread on this already But I did spend 15mins searching)

http://www.abc.com.au/science/crude/

 

Let me know if you can or can't see it. My Web connection is too slow to watch.

[Eclogite]

Before any discussion begins I think we need to make clear the distinction between peak oil and running out of oil.

 

Peak oil reflects the point at which oil production from a field, basin, region, country, or the entire planet, reaches a maximum and then declines. At this point there is still a great deal of oil left. The point at which we run out of oil is distant from the point at which we reach peak oil (production).

 

What will occur when peak oil arrives on a planetary basis is that oil prices will rise, economic expansion will be slowed, international tensions will increase and promoters of the concept will say "I told you so".

 

When, many years later, we eventually run out of oil in a practical sense, no one will care, since we will long have implemented an alternative energy strategy.

[Zythryn]

When, many years later, we eventually run out of oil in a practical sense, no one will care, since we will long have implemented an alternative energy strategy.

 

I hope you are correct. However, economic harm will start soon after we reach peak oil. Conflicts will arise next as oil becomes more scarce.

If we have alternative energy sources when we reach peak oil, it will be a non-event. With the current energy policies I am concerned alternative sources will not be available on a large scale when we need it (in order to avoid conflict).

[Michaelangelica]

Before any discussion begins I think we need to make clear the distinction between peak oil and running out of oil.

 

Peak oil reflects the point at which oil production from a field, basin, region, country, or the entire planet, reaches a maximum and then declines.

yes i agree. We have to start pumping water down the holes to get the oil up. Many say we are at Peak oil now give (10) or take (2) years.

there is lots of great new tecnology in the pipeline I hope you are right about alternatives.

The best I have seen is Australian Solar Sliver Cells ( not a typing error).

The car that runs on coffe grounds (see Terra preta forum -Unusual uses of?-) ain't bad either.;)

It is great to see the human race grappling with GW/PO. I wish we could put the same energy into not killing each other.

This is the show I just watched

Very good

CRUDE - THE INCREDIBLE JOURNEY OF OIL

From the food on our tables to the fuel in our cars, crude oil seeps invisibly into almost every part of our modern lives.

Yet many of us have little idea of the incredible journey it has made to reach our petrol tanks and plastic bags. ABC Science has created a special broadband companion website to this landmark documentary.

The site enables you to view the entire documentary again, watch extended interviews which were not included in the program, and discuss how the world will cope as we approach the end of the Age of Oil. (You'll need a broadband connection to view the video).

Crude - the incredible journey of oil - Broadband edition - ABC Science

[Eclogite]

I should point out that when we say alternative energy strategymost people think in terms of an alternative energy strategy . One of the options that I consider plausible is an alternative energy strategy.

To clarify: our strategy may be (may have to be) acceptance that we are unable to deliver the energy levels that we have come to take for the norm in the West, and which China, India, and the rest of the world, aspires to. Our strategy may be to retrench; to suffer economic collapse. Not an attractive prospect, but a plausible one.

In the worst case version of this scenario we have an apocalyptic collapse of civilisation. (Still, if it gets rid of McDonalds it won't be all bad.)

 

We have to start pumping water down the holes to get the oil up.

This is as much about maximising oil recovery as it is about forcing the oil out of the ground. We not only want to maintain reservoir pressure by pumping water (or gas) back into the reservoir, in properly located wellbores, but the water can be used (with suitable chemicals added) to sweep the oil in front of it to the production boreholes.

 

We have to start pumping water down the holes to get the oil up. Many say we are at Peak oil now give (10) or take (2) years.

I don't entirely rule out these pessimistic estimates, but for several reasons I think they are unlikely:

1) Advances in seismic prospecting have enabled identification of subtle reservoirs with greater precision.

2) Advances in drilling technology have transformed the economics of developing many fields.

3) The present high price (and potentially higher price) of oil makes many previously marginal fields economic.

4) We continue to develop improved recovery techniques.

5) Russia remains hugely inefficient at producing and transporting its oil.

6) The Middle East production has generally focused on the easily found, large reservoirs. There is likely a lot in there that has not been tapped.

[Boerseun]

Actually, whilst we might have gazillions of barrels left in already found wells, Peak Oil refers to the point where it actually takes more oil to recover a certain amount of the black stuff. If you're sitting with an immense well that's in such an inaccessable spot and deep underground that it might take you ten liters to recover nine, the well is unsupportable and, as far as that well is concerned, *peak oil* has come and gone. The actual peak is where you break even, for instance, it takes ten liters to get out ten liters, which means that from this specific point onwards, you're wasting your time with this particular well. Global *Peak Oil* means the same, for the global industry combined.

 

There are vast resources available, like the Canadian tar sands, which is just lying there, ripe for the picking. Only problem, to recover the oil from these sands economically, depends on a much higher oil price. It seems we're heading there. And once it happens, and it becomes viable to mine the tar sands, we'll have access to an oil resource that might be comparable to the total reserves ever found in the Middle East - at a much higher price, of course. So I don't think there'll be an immediate crash after global 'peak oil' has been achieved, prices will simply rise to the point where vast resources (like the Canadian Tar sands) becomes viable. And then we'll reciprocate by buying smaller cars, taxing SUV's into oblivion, and becoming more energy-conscious. Which might, ultimately, be a good thing. But the oil will keep flowing.

 

Also, SASOL's economically sound version of the Fischer-Tropsch process might render vast coalfields into oil resources - which will be good for the US, as the US might be regarded as the 'Middle East of Coal'. We have around 200 to 300 years' worth of known Coal reserves. SASOL actually changes coal into oil at a price of around $30 to $40 a barrel. They are making massive profits on oil production and sales without having a single drop of oil. Once we start taking the SASOL method into large-scale global production, we'll be safe for many generations to come, as far as oil production is concerned. With this in mind, I don't think we'll see a global oil production crash in our lifetimes, at least.

 

A very good resource on this is at DIE OFF - a population crash resource page - don't let the initial look of the site put you off; it was slapped together rather haphazardly. But it contains really insightful articles on population die-offs, and peak oil. There are also plenty articles bringing the two together, written by notable scientists.

 

The best advice might be to get a cabin in the mountains somewhere and wait the storm out, armed with a shotgun to keep the hungry looters and petrol zombies away from the front door... - or simply to be a good capitalist and buy up SASOL shares and become a gazillionaire in the next ten to twenty years.

[Michaelangelica]

Actually, . . .underground that it might take you ten liters to recover nine, the well is unsupportable . .

Thanks for the clarification.

I thought it had something to do with pumping water down the hole. . . (Anyway I had it A*se up.:))

 

 

There are vast resources available, like the Canadian tar sands, which is just . . And then we'll reciprocate by buying smaller cars, taxing SUV's into oblivion, and becoming more energy-conscious. Which might, ultimately, be a good thing. But the oil will keep flowing.

Good:)

Also, SASOL's economically sound version of the Fischer-Tropsch process might render vast coalfields into oil resources

This is very interesting.

For a hundred+ mile radius around me, under me, is a huge coal field and it is just one of many in Australia. There are hundreds? of ships off the coast at the moment lined up for 100K to get to Newcastle to fill up with coal either for China or Japan

This might be why so many Japanese and US equity/energy companies are buying up Oz coal companies who up to recently were struggling to make a profit. Every day some company takeover is in the news.

A Korean company wants to long wall mine practically under me at the moment. People are worried about what that will do to underground water and the area is dotted with "Water not Coal" signs in front yards.

 

I am told there is also a boom in uranium (we have 33% of world supply). Western Australia which seems to be made of iron, diamonds gold, gas etc is booming. They are desperate to get people to work there. Unemployment is at an all-time low. The long dominant, establised Eastern States are now the poor relations (except Queensland -but they will run out of water next week)

A very good resource on this is at DIE OFF

-

I don't think I really want to know, but thanks anyway

 

The best advice might be to get a cabin in the mountains somewhere and wait the storm out, armed with a shotgun to keep the hungry looters and petrol zombies away from the front door... :rose: -

You know;This was the exact advice given to me in the late 1970's by a VERY senior exec. American guy I met in EXXON. He also suggested a high, electrified fence.:hihi:

 

I met up with him in Texas in early 80's (SO much $$$ in Houston:eek_big: "What's a trillion?" I asked.:cup: ).

 

He had changed jobs from the area he was trained in.

"What are you doing now then." I asked. (I knew he had just got back from Indonesia)

"O, y'a know. . just buying things"

"What do you mean buying things?"

"Well, we know we are going to be out of the Oil business eventually, so we are buying other things" (!!!)

Probably half of Indonesia; They already own some VERY profitable bits of Australia.

He did explain that he and Exxon did not think (in 1970) that America could have reduced their oil needs as they did when the price went up. They did not believe USAans would buy smaller cars or insulation!!

and

that the day of reconing was a little further off than they first thought.

:rose:

I am banking on Oz "sliver (not a typo) solar cells" helping out the energy crisis. :cup:

[Eclogite]

Boersun, your definition of peakoil is incorrect. Please check out my earlier post for a correct definition.

Peakoil relates to production levels. Peakoil is the maximum production level.

Sorry, for curt response, but I have a lawyers meeting in twenty minutes.:evil:

[Boerseun]

Boersun, your definition of peakoil is incorrect. Please check out my earlier post for a correct definition.

Peakoil relates to production levels. Peakoil is the maximum production level.

Sorry, for curt response, but I have a lawyers meeting in twenty minutes.

Don't take no crap from no lawyers, Eclo...:evil:

 

...but any case, back to the thread:

 

Production levels of any oil well is determined by the oil price, to begin with, and the cost of recovering oil from the particular well.

 

Getting oil from a well to the refinery to the gas pump, takes oil. If it cost you ten liters of oil (for fuelling the whole recovery/refinery/distribution process) in order to supply the market with nine liters, you are fighting a losing battle and the well becomes unsupportable.

 

'Peak oil' says nothing about the amount of oil left in the wells - heck, there might be untold fortunes in black gold just lying there. But the cost of recovery will fatally impact production levels, making well upon well unsupportable and uneconomical.

 

I think we're explaining the same issue from slightly different angles here.

[Eclipse Now]

A few questions if anyone needs some references to think through this issue:

 

1. Which decade did we discover the most oil?

 

2. How has the discovery of conventional oil been going since then?

Keep in mind that oil is probably only 2nd to the military in terms of the money and technology available to their enterprise.

 

3. What is the ratio of discovery to consumption – are we discovering more than we use, or less? How good or 'bad' is the ratio?

 

4. How many oil producing countries have already peaked and are in irreversible decline?

 

5. Which countries are still able increase production and have not reached their all time historical peak??

 

6. Do these nations allow the international community to audit their reserves to the verify this claim, or are they closed to outside audit?

 

7. If domestic consumption of oil exporting nations rises too fast because of a booming domestic economy, how quickly can domestic consumption outpace their ability to export post peak? (Hint: there are historical precedents — google "Export Land Model").

 

Answer a few of these and one might start to feel a little :phones::phones::cheer:

[raymond723]

Oil will run out in only several decades

[Eclipse Now]

But we have shale oil and tar sands and coal to liquids! :fly:

 

I agree with you... the conventional sweet crude is about to peak and start declining, the stuff is increasingly sour, increasingly in the harder to reach places, increasingly in unstable regimes and countries that don't like westerners very much, and increasingly expensive... yet India and China want their turn at the industrialised party.

 

Yet the main conversation impacting energy use is global warming —*is it "clean" energy? The question of whether there's enough liquid fuel energy does not seem to have hit the mainstream. Yet.