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North Korea's got the Bomb!


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#69 CraigD

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 06:06 PM

So, what's new over in the North K with lil' Kim these days?

I’ve heard little about Kim Jong-il, but much about N.Korea’s nuclear weapon program.

The consensus seems to be that the 10/9/2006 test was intended to produce about a 5 kiloton explosion, but produced only about a 0.5 one.

This may indicate a profound design flaw, and at least a partial “back to the drawing board” for N.Korean engineers. Given that N.Korea lacks a strong national science establishment, this could be a big problem. Much of their nuclear weapon engineering know-how is likely “stolen” via espionage from established nuclear nations. While some design elements can be obtained this way, “making it work” knowledge requires more deep technical and scientific knowledge. N.Korea may lack this.

#70 gribbon

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 07:20 AM

Basically, what Kim Jong Il said to the World is: "You have told me not to build nukes. You have threatened me militarily if I do. Now, I have done it. You have verified it. Are you going to make good on your threats? Or will any other tinpot dictatorship see that your threats are hollow, simply hot air? Whatcha gonna do?"


If he had had a bit more sense, he would have hidden his nuclear weapons proigram up until the last minute, just before an attck,and then reveal his detterent. This way he would avoid a dangerous arms race with the U.S (which North Korea will not win due to iot's lack of technological and monetary resources), but would still be able to avoid an attack. (But only as long as the U.S has no anti-missile shield.

I'm pleased to see North Korea conduct this test. What everyone has failed to mention so far are the implications of this test on North Korea's most favoured countries.

Notify the intimate relations between North Korea, Iran, and Syria. With any luck, nuclear weapons shall be exported to these countries, (missile technology already has been exchanged between these three countries) and finally they will be able to tame Israel. Nothing against Israeli's, by the way.

#71 InfiniteNow

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 10:26 AM

I'm pleased to see North Korea conduct this test. ...Notify the intimate relations between North Korea, Iran, and Syria. With any luck, nuclear weapons shall be exported to these countries, (missile technology already has been exchanged between these three countries) and finally they will be able to destroy Israel. (Or at least tame it). Nothing against Israeli's, but this is an issue on which there should be no compromise.

Can you elaborate?

:confused:

#72 Qfwfq

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 10:44 AM

Gribbon we have rules which include points about spreding hate. There are far better ways of improving the middle east situation than by encouraging increase of nuclear proliferation against Israel.

This forum is about history, not politics, thank you.

#73 gribbon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 07:35 AM

Gribbon we have rules which include points about spreding hate. There are far better ways of improving the middle east situation than by encouraging increase of nuclear proliferation against Israel.


:oh_really: Couldn't you read the "Nothing against Israeli's" bit. I sympathise with any Israeli person who does depise their governement, and recognise that there needs to be change.

Unfortunately, Israel has defied international law so often that it seems clear to me that the only way to tame this terrorist state is by force. Peaceful protest isn't going to work. It may seem to you as over the top for me to say "and finally they will be able to destroy Israel.", but I fail to see the two state solution as a success. It sure as hell hasn't worked so far.

I got this map below from Wikipedia, (http://upload.wikime...l_relations.png) and it should illustrate to anyone who believes in the two state solution how wrong they are in an instant, or rather, how far they have to go:

Green means full relations
Orange means that relations are suspended
Red means two things: The state refuses to recognise Israel, and the state has no relations with Israel.

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  • Israel_relations.jpg


#74 Buffy

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 11:44 AM

Couldn't you read the "Nothing against Israeli's" bit. I sympathise with any Israeli person who does depise their governement, and recognise that there needs to be change.

I have nothing against you Gribbon, but I sympathise with your mother who recognizes that her offspring has educational disabilities. No offense intended of course!

Unfortunately, Israel has defied international law so often that it seems clear to me that the only way to tame this terrorist state is by force. ...I got this map below from Wikipedia, and it should illustrate to anyone who believes in the two state solution how wrong they are in an instant, or rather, how far they have to go:

Green means full relations
Orange means that relations are suspended
Red means two things: The state refuses to recognise Israel, and the state has no relations with Israel.

Okay, this appears to be a math problem. Let me help you with your counting. Counting involves numbers: 1, 2, 3, and so on. Are you familiar with those? Okay, now look at the map. Now as a general rule, its always easier to count the ones that are smaller first, and then if you study, then you can use an operation called "subtraction" to figure out the larger number.

So, now look at the picture. First, how many reds are there? 1, 2, 3...21! Very good! Now lets count the oranges: 1, 2, 3, 4! Great! If you add those two numbers together, there are 25 countries who according to you have the right idea about the Destruction of Israel. Now, to make it easier, I'll let you know that there are about 160 countries out there, so now we do subtraction: 160 minus 25 is 135 countries.

That's 135 countries that have to be convinced that well, first of all of your obviously true statement that Israel is a "terrorist state" with no excuses whatsoever for any of its actions, and then that it should be destroyed by nuclear weapons.

Now here comes the really tricky part that is probably going to be completely counter-intuitive to you: 135 is a MUCH bigger number than 25. In our country, where we vote for things to figure out what to do, that means that most people would vote not to Destroy Israel. To use percentages--this requires muliplication which you may not understand yet--only 15% of the countries agree with your position and you have to convince the other 85%. In fact, recognizing that the Orange folks are really sitting on the fence, you really need to change the minds of 9 out of every 10 countries out there.

Quite a challenge you have ahead of you! You do indeed have a "long way to go..."

Counting trolls,
Buffy

#75 gribbon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:00 PM

I will ignore your gesture as an insult, Buffy, because I have to admit what I said was a bit over the top. :turtle:

I was quite annoyed when I said it, because I had a friend of mine seriously hurt by the war in Lebanon, which is why I over reacted. I would still say that Israel is some way from being perfect in its behaviour, (and a country administered by terrorists) but what I said was over the top. Anyway, enough of this nonsense, and lets all get back on topic. It would probably make sense if we deleted these last 5 posts and moved back to the topic....

#76 InfiniteNow

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:04 PM

Can I just say first of all, sorry for what I said. I was pretty enraged when I said it, and should have thought a bit more carefully. I had a friend of mine seriously hurt by the war in Lebanon, which is why I over reacted. I would still say that Israel is some way from being perfect in its behaviour, but what I said was ridiculously over the top. Sorry.

You see, though... People across the globe respond in the exact way you did... on both sides. So, as a result, the issues just magnify. Too many people reacting right away, with little regard for consequence and full attention to the deeper archaic rage within.

You cannot delete the act of a wartime killing. There are no mulligans when it comes to people's lives and relationshiops. :turtle:

#77 gribbon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:13 PM

Well anyway, I can see that I should have put it a bit more carefully: I refuse to apologise for wishing that Iran and Syria have nuclear weapons to defend themselves, but I do not want them to destroy Israel.

#78 InfiniteNow

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:58 PM

No, I won't be deleting them. They are a perfect illustration of where many people go wrong. You're sorry, I understand that. Like a dog who gets yelled at and gives the sorry eyes. "I won't be going into the trash again, I swear!" You can almost hear them think... well, then next week when something in the trash smells good, they forget about the sorrow.

We all do and say things from time to tomb that we wish we could take back, but we must learn and not repeat same mistakes more than once.

I am (at least trying to) making a much bigger point than the silliness you've posted above, fxgribbon. I propose that we as a culture need to make a seriously large evolutionary leap to overcome the behavioral and emotional inertia of our times, an inertia so laden with ignorance and hatred that we blow ourselves up.

Stepping off my :turtle: now...
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#79 Boerseun

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 09:06 PM

***WARNING!!!*** OFF TOPIC POST TO FOLLOW!!!***

...Yeeeeees. Okay, well. [/switches off klaxon]

I see Gribbon has posted this big map thingy.
Now all the text in this whole page follows the width of the image he posted,
and I have to use my scroll bar on the bottom to read the post!
I wanted to ask this quite a while ago, 'cause this has happened with all
pages where pasted images are bigger than the width of my screen.
I'm running 1024x768 currently, and thought I'll just paste this question here,
seeing as this image is here to illustrate my point.
Is there any way of doing a "word wrap" sorta thing based on the width
of my screen setting? It's nothing serious, it's just pretty anal
to have to scroll left and right for every line in the post!!!

Usually, I just skip those threads completely, because of this. Or maybe
we can put a limitation on the widths of pics pasted? Or autothumbnail them?

***END OF OFF-TOPIC POST!!!***


#80 InfiniteNow

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 09:14 PM

<scrolls righward to find the quick reply button>

That's a great idea. :turtle: You should get with the dev team for the Hv2 design and add this.

#81 TheBigDog

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 01:27 PM

This may indicate a profound design flaw, and at least a partial “back to the drawing board” for N.Korean engineers. Given that N.Korea lacks a strong national science establishment, this could be a big problem. Much of their nuclear weapon engineering know-how is likely “stolen” via espionage from established nuclear nations. While some design elements can be obtained this way, “making it work” knowledge requires more deep technical and scientific knowledge. N.Korea may lack this.

It makes me hopeful that one of our strategies in dealing with the NK nuke program is to use counter intelligence to provide misleading stolen technical data, forcing them to spend their precious resources on dead end solutions because of their faith in the quality of the data they think they stole. Wouldn't that be cool?

Bill

#82 InfiniteNow

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Posted 16 July 2007 - 10:07 AM

Recent news:

NPR : N. Korea Shuts Reactor, Calls for End to Sanctions

North Korea is ready to start dismantling its nuclear programs following the shutdown of its sole operating reactor, a North Korean diplomat said Sunday, as long as the United States lifts all sanctions against the communist nation.

Kim Myong Gil, minister at the North's mission to the United Nations in New York, confirmed the reactor was shut down Saturday after receipt of a South Korean oil shipment, and said U.N. inspectors would verify the closure Sunday.

Kim noted that the next steps included the North making a declaration of its nuclear program and disabling the facilities.

But he said that would happen only if Washington takes actions "in parallel," including removing wider economic sanctions and striking the country from a list of states that sponsor terrorism.

International negotiations on the issue have snagged on a variety of issues, including the North's anger over comments by U.S. officials about its government and financial restrictions placed on a bank where North Korea held accounts.



#83 Pyrotex

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Posted 16 July 2007 - 01:01 PM

Can anyone remember what the YIELD of NK's nuke was? I seem to remember it was less than one kiloton.

That's important. The easiest cheapest nuke you can make (like our first three, two of which we used in war) are around 5 to 10 kTon. It gets harder and harder to make them go pop -- with a smaller bang. Tactical nukes around 1 or 2 kTon can be carried into a hostile state on the backs of several Marines, and planted next to a bridge or dam, but the technology, precision and cost of those devices are huge.

But burying 500 tons of properly fused High Explosives deep in a mine, and blowing it up all at the same time, while throwing a half cup of powdered radioactive waste into the blast so the USA unmanned vehicles will get their counters ticking, doesn't sound very difficult.

#84 Boerseun

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Posted 19 July 2007 - 12:42 AM

To the best of my knowledge, the blast yielded around 800-900 tons. But the seismic signal of TNT going off and a nuclear explosion is markedly different, and the blast was indeed identified as being nuclear through seismic records, amongst others.

#85 Qfwfq

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 08:57 AM

The main problem for getting the full potential out of a fission bomb is that of keeping the stuff together as long as possible, after the critical mass has been formed. The explosion itself otherwise tends to disperse the fissile material. In short, an ill-designed fission bang will put itself out soon after it starts.

A tacticle nuke meant to be placed by saboteurs in enemy territory, carried by stealth past guards etc. can't exactly be ill-designed and clumsy and the low power is a choice, a specification the designer must reliably comply with. It's bound to be expensive. But perhaps Kim Jong II spent even more, much more but his boys simply didn't get it as well as hoped.