Coronavirus Is Fake News

[OceanBreeze]

I may be wrong but you appear to me to be disagreeing with taking extreme measures to slow or stop the progress of the virus, which might prevent too many deaths in the elderly. Your concern appears to be saving the economy.

 

I think from the news this morning even trump is beginning to understand the seriousness of the situation, and has made requests to the Chinese and Koreans for assistance with protective clothing etc. 

 

What measures would you suggest to control the epidemic ?

 

 

 

1) You are wrong about what my concerns are and you should stop with your assumptions about that.

 

2) Please provide a link that Trump is asking China for assistance.

 

3) The US has done more covid-19 testing in 8 days than the S. Korean have done in 8 weeks, 300,000 US vs 290,000 S. Korea and it is only reasonable to ask if they have any "spare" test kits, to send them. (that is how to provide a link)

 

4) I have already said many times in this thread what I see as a reasonable approach to controlling this virus.

Read my posts.

 

5) You are starting to annoy me with your trolling.

[OceanBreeze]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/trump-privately-appeals-to-asia-and-europe-for-medical-help-to-fight-coronavirus

 

I will decline from responding to any more of your posts. 

 

Awww. You shouldn’t break my heart like that.

 

Anyway, there is nothing in that Guardian article about Trump asking for help from China, as I expected. Although the US does import many things from China, including medical items, China is not an ally.

 

According to CNN “Trump quietly seeks allies' coronavirus help” that doesn’t include China.

 

As for S. Korea, although a senior State Department official said they were "not aware of any specific asks of any particular country”, apparently there was a request for assistance in supplying coronavirus tests for US military personnel stationed there. “The Pentagon has expressed its thanks to South Korea for supplying coronavirus tests for US military use until American testing equipment arrived on the peninsula”

 

 “The Blue House (Korean) version of the (Trump’s) call contrasts with a White House readout, which said the two leaders discussed "their nations' respective efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic," but made no mention of the US request for support”

 

It depends on which version you want to believe; CNN’s version or the State Dept/White House version, and that depends on your political leaning.

 

Flummoxed, whether you choose to respond to my posts or not is entirely up to you, of course, but I should clarify that my comment was not in any way related to me being a mod here. I do find some of your recent posts to be annoying and I’m sure you find some of my posts to be annoying. It is obvious we have different political views; I don’t think either one of us is so fragile that we can’t handle that.

 

I encourage you to continue to respond; your feedback is (occasionally) valuable, even if it is (occasionally) annoying!

[Thoth101]

I may be wrong but you appear to me to be disagreeing with taking extreme measures to slow or stop the progress of the virus, which might prevent too many deaths in the elderly. Your concern appears to be saving the economy.

 

I think from the news this morning even trump is beginning to understand the seriousness of the situation, and has made requests to the Chinese and Koreans for assistance with protective clothing etc. 

 

What measures would you suggest to control the epidemic ?

 

 

 

Looking at what is happening globally. I wouldnt trust your intuition on this. Corona virus is in the human population it hasnt been stopped like the SARS outbreak. Ultimately when the human race builds up a resistance to corona virus it may just have the same fatalities as the flu. At the moment its going to affect more the older population.  

 

I guess those with lots of money can make lots of money out of a global financial collapse. If they new in advance it was going to happen, cashed all the assets, and then bought back in at the bottom of the market. But those with lots of money are generally old, and not immune to corona virus. If it spreads they are probably screwed along with many of the elderly. I also dont think a global cabal started the corona virus in Wuhan to cause a global financial collapse. Pandemics occur naturally.

 

The mayor of new york is concerned, and taking into consideration what has happened else where in the world, he appears to be taking action. Most of the cases so far are inside New York City only 210 dead so far and 14900 infected. In the states at the moment there are 25665 cases.  https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift-morgue-for-coronavirus-victims-set-up-outside-nyc-hospital/ out of those 14900 infected not all of them are going to recover. Not all of them are badly sick either, and if they are not in isolation, and wandering around the streets, they are infecting others, who might not fare so well. Apparently people are contagious a day before their symptoms start to appear, so without a bit of social distancing, the disease is going to spread a lot faster. It is only a matter of time before you know some one personally who has got it.

 

Today is 25th march, 25665 cases already. Whats your guess for next week in the US?

 

Does your intuition tell you the US, Canada and Mexico may be forced to close their borders in the future, to try and control the virus in their own countries?

 

Would it have been a good idea to control the virus earlier on? What benefit is there to a delayed response? 

I really don't trust anything they are saying about the "virus" and where do they even get all these numbers from? And who is to even believe these people are even dying from a corona virus? Could it be these are just normal deaths from other things and they are just blaming it on this virus? I have learned not to trust anything the mainstream tells me or the government or the medical mafia.

 

I trust in my immune system and I would even share the same room with somebody who has the "corona". The fear and the panic is what is giving the governments the power to take the freedoms away. For the US this is a literal stripping of the Constitution. The states telling you where you can and cannot go. Telling companies when they can work and not. My intuition and common sense says this is nothing more than the Powers That Be playing their final card before they lose their power. The question will be will the human race fall for it? I think once the internet goes down shortly people may begin to wise up and see what is really going on but for now they are duped. That is my thought on it. I don't live in fear or let the news and governments are medical cartel make me live in fear. Help yourself out and turn the fear porn off.

[Thoth101]

I missed the swine flu news in 2009 I was in the Pacific. 

My girlfriend had it before I met her. I was in Iraq at the time myself. She said her and her mom both got it and they literally couldn't move for a week with puking and pooping.

[OceanBreeze]

By now probably everybody in the world has seen Dr. Fauci on TV, telling us all just how bad this coronavirus is and it is so much more contagious and deadly than the flu.

 

So, I am left scratching my head when I read this editorial piece, in the New England Journal of Medicine, dated March 26.

 

For context, the authors are commenting about a report on the outbreak in Wuhan, China.

 

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

 

List of authors: Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

 

The median age of the patients was 59 years, with higher morbidity and mortality among the elderly and among those with coexisting conditions (similar to the situation with influenza); 56% of the patients were male. Of note, there were no cases in children younger than 15 years of age. Either children are less likely to become infected, which would have important epidemiologic implications, or their symptoms were so mild that their infection escaped detection, which has implications for the size of the denominator of total community infections.

 

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

 

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

 

This is the same Dr Fauci who is standing up there on TV in front of millions, perhaps billions of viewers, basically telling us all to make sure we have enough toilet paper to make mummies out of all the dead bodies which will soon be stacking up in our hallways.

 

This isn’t something you will ever see in the New York Post, or The Guardian or probably in any newspaper, anywhere but here it is in The New England Journal of Medicine.

 

I have No Comment.

 

 

 

[Thoth101]

By now probably everybody in the world has seen Dr. Fauci on TV, telling us all just how bad this coronavirus is and it is so much more contagious and deadly than the flu.

 

So, I am left scratching my head when I read this editorial piece, in the New England Journal of Medicine, dated March 26.

 

For context, the authors are commenting about a report on the outbreak in Wuhan, China.

 

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

 

List of authors: Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

 

The median age of the patients was 59 years, with higher morbidity and mortality among the elderly and among those with coexisting conditions (similar to the situation with influenza); 56% of the patients were male. Of note, there were no cases in children younger than 15 years of age. Either children are less likely to become infected, which would have important epidemiologic implications, or their symptoms were so mild that their infection escaped detection, which has implications for the size of the denominator of total community infections.

 

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

 

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

 

This is the same Dr Fauci who is standing up there on TV in front of millions, perhaps billions of viewers, basically telling us all to make sure we have enough toilet paper to make mummies out of all the dead bodies which will soon be stacking up in our hallways.

 

This isn’t something you will ever see in the New York Post, or The Guardian or probably in any newspaper, anywhere but here it is in The New England Journal of Medicine.

 

I have No Comment.

Interesting enough I never heard of  Dr. Fauci but than again I never turn on FOX,CNN,MSNBC,ABC,NBC,CBS. I stay off of the fear porn and propaganda networks. If everybody would do that they would have no ratings and have to go out of business but no one gets it yet.lol!

[exchemist]

By now probably everybody in the world has seen Dr. Fauci on TV, telling us all just how bad this coronavirus is and it is so much more contagious and deadly than the flu.

 

So, I am left scratching my head when I read this editorial piece, in the New England Journal of Medicine, dated March 26.

 

For context, the authors are commenting about a report on the outbreak in Wuhan, China.

 

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

 

List of authors: Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

 

The median age of the patients was 59 years, with higher morbidity and mortality among the elderly and among those with coexisting conditions (similar to the situation with influenza); 56% of the patients were male. Of note, there were no cases in children younger than 15 years of age. Either children are less likely to become infected, which would have important epidemiologic implications, or their symptoms were so mild that their infection escaped detection, which has implications for the size of the denominator of total community infections.

 

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

 

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

 

This is the same Dr Fauci who is standing up there on TV in front of millions, perhaps billions of viewers, basically telling us all to make sure we have enough toilet paper to make mummies out of all the dead bodies which will soon be stacking up in our hallways.

 

This isn’t something you will ever see in the New York Post, or The Guardian or probably in any newspaper, anywhere but here it is in The New England Journal of Medicine.

 

I have No Comment.

I do.

 

You are, once more, ignoring the rate at which people get seriously ill from Covid-19. This is far higher than seasonal 'flu, as demonstrated by the crisis in New York hospitals at the moment.  What Fauci says here is about mortality rate, not about the speed of growth of the epidemic, which is what determines the rate at which people get seriously ill.

 

It is beyond question that the health systems of China, Italy, Spain, the UK and now the US have been, or are being, stretched to breaking point by a tsunami of cases. Whether these cases represent 5% of a small total infection rate, or 1% of a much larger one does not matter. If the outbreak is not slowed down, it will cause a breakdown in health care. That is why Fauci is calling for measures to slow it down.     

[OceanBreeze]

Thanks for that, now I too have a comment, a rather long one because now I am being adversely affected, not by the virus directly, but by the draconian measures being employed in an failed effort to control it.

 

I am not ignoring anything. What I am doing is quoting exactly what Dr Fauci has written in the New England Journal of Medicine. He is listed as the main author so these are his words: “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza”

 

His words, not mine.

 

There are a lot of numbers being tossed around that are frightening a lot of people and all I am trying to do is put this in perspective. Please tell me what part of the following you disagree with or you think is wrong.

 

Seasonal influenza takes about 36,000 lives in the USA every year. According to Dr Fauci, those fatalities are 0.1% of the number of cases. That means there are 36 million cases of the flu in the USA during a single year. If those cases were spread out evenly throughout the year, that works out to 3 million cases every month. However, the flu season peaks between December and February, and March is usually a bad month too. Right now, this month, there can be 4 or 5 million people with the flu and of that amount, at least 4,500 will die, and there will be many more who require hospitalization. The seasonal flu is a serious problem, but nobody is even mentioning it!

 

Meanwhile, there are news anchors on every network, 24 hours a day, broadcasting a running tally of cases and deaths due to Covid-19, in the most somber doomsday tone that they can muster.

 

So read these words in the most somber doomsday manner you can muster: Right now, there are about 100,000 confirmed cases and 1,500 deaths in the USA attributed to Covid-19.

 

How is it that the hospitals are facing an overload at the present time from this? How is it the hospitals handle 4,500 dead, this month alone, from the flu and also handle the many more who need hospitalization, without a crisis?

 

Of that 100,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, some 95%, or more will have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. So around 5,000 cases may require hospitalization. Not all of those will be severe enough to require to be intubated and put on a ventilator. Obviously, some will be very severe as 1,500 have died, but some of those people who go to the hospital could recover just as well by staying home. During a pandemic, the hospital is the last place that I would go to unless I was really in bad shape.

 

It looks to me that this Covid flu is at most, doubling the load that the hospitals face every year from seasonal flu. Yes, that makes it tough going but it isn’t a doomsday scenario.

 

On that death rate, I see the doom and gloom talking heads saying it is 1.5% That is because they are doing a simple-minded calculation of 1,500 deaths/100,000 confirmed cases. That is fake math!

 

We know the number of cases that are out there and unaccounted for is many times more than the number that have been confirmed. We know this because most of the confirmed cases are mild or asymptomatic. This thing did not enter the US with some “patient zero” from which it spread everywhere. It entered all over, in New York, New Orleans, California, and other places, with many “patient zeroes”.

 

Using some of that fake math, with an R0 of 2.2, one case can multiply to 2,655 cases in 10 days (2.2^10) in 20 days the number is 705,000. You can do the math yourself. Even though it is fake math, when you consider there were many patient zeroes, it is almost certainly a very low estimate of where we are now. It is very possible 50% of the US population is already infected!

 

This means that the extreme measures of locking everyone down are too late to have any real effect. The curve will slow due to herd immunity, not because we are all hiding in our homes.

 

Very soon, the scary numbers will start to come down. In the end, we may lose 20,000 or even 40,000 lives in total to this virus, in the USA alone. That is nothing to be taken lightly, but it is in line with what Dr Fauci wrote: “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza” and that happens every year!

 

The strange thing is, he writes that in the most respected medical journal but he has never once said anything even remotely similar in public. In public, he has spoken of “millions” dying in the USA alone.

 

I see what is happening in Italy and Spain and elsewhere and it does depress me.

 

What gives me hope is the Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve. That can’t happen soon enough.

 

I know this is very long but I need to add a quick note about the economy. Some have said this is a binary choice between saving lives or saving the economy. The economy is not some abstract thing that can be shut down and destroyed without also destroying millions of lives. Anything we do to flatten that curve has to be measured against the damage that will be caused to the economy and the lives of people who depend on it. It isn’t a binary choice, like the trolly problem. There are many lives laying across both tracks.

 

You may think I’m wrong, and that’s fair, but you should hope that I am right!

 

 

 

 

[Thoth101]

Thanks for that, now I too have a comment, a rather long one because now I am being adversely affected, not by the virus directly, but by the draconian measures being employed in an failed effort to control it.

 

I am not ignoring anything. What I am doing is quoting exactly what Dr Fauci has written in the New England Journal of Medicine. He is listed as the main author so these are his words: “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza”

 

His words, not mine.

 

There are a lot of numbers being tossed around that are frightening a lot of people and all I am trying to do is put this in perspective. Please tell me what part of the following you disagree with or you think is wrong.

 

Seasonal influenza takes about 36,000 lives in the USA every year. According to Dr Fauci, those fatalities are 0.1% of the number of cases. That means there are 36 million cases of the flu in the USA during a single year. If those cases were spread out evenly throughout the year, that works out to 3 million cases every month. However, the flu season peaks between December and February, and March is usually a bad month too. Right now, this month, there can be 4 or 5 million people with the flu and of that amount, at least 4,500 will die, and there will be many more who require hospitalization. The seasonal flu is a serious problem, but nobody is even mentioning it!

 

Meanwhile, there are news anchors on every network, 24 hours a day, broadcasting a running tally of cases and deaths due to Covid-19, in the most somber doomsday tone that they can muster.

 

So read these words in the most somber doomsday manner you can muster: Right now, there are about 100,000 confirmed cases and 1,500 deaths in the USA attributed to Covid-19.

 

How is it that the hospitals are facing an overload at the present time from this? How is it the hospitals handle 4,500 dead, this month alone, from the flu and also handle the many more who need hospitalization, without a crisis?

 

Of that 100,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, some 95%, or more will have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. So around 5,000 cases may require hospitalization. Not all of those will be severe enough to require to be intubated and put on a ventilator. Obviously, some will be very severe as 1,500 have died, but some of those people who go to the hospital could recover just as well by staying home. During a pandemic, the hospital is the last place that I would go to unless I was really in bad shape.

 

It looks to me that this Covid flu is at most, doubling the load that the hospitals face every year from seasonal flu. Yes, that makes it tough going but it isn’t a doomsday scenario.

 

On that death rate, I see the doom and gloom talking heads saying it is 1.5% That is because they are doing a simple-minded calculation of 1,500 deaths/100,000 confirmed cases. That is fake math!

 

We know the number of cases that are out there and unaccounted for is many times more than the number that have been confirmed. We know this because most of the confirmed cases are mild or asymptomatic. This thing did not enter the US with some “patient zero” from which it spread everywhere. It entered all over, in New York, New Orleans, California, and other places, with many “patient zeroes”.

 

Using some of that fake math, with an R0 of 2.2, one case can multiply to 2,655 cases in 10 days (2.2^10) in 20 days the number is 705,000. You can do the math yourself. Even though it is fake math, when you consider there were many patient zeroes, it is almost certainly a very low estimate of where we are now. It is very possible 50% of the US population is already infected!

 

This means that the extreme measures of locking everyone down are too late to have any real effect. The curve will slow due to herd immunity, not because we are all hiding in our homes.

 

Very soon, the scary numbers will start to come down. In the end, we may lose 20,000 or even 40,000 lives in total to this virus, in the USA alone. That is nothing to be taken lightly, but it is in line with what Dr Fauci wrote: “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza” and that happens every year!

 

The strange thing is, he writes that in the most respected medical journal but he has never once said anything even remotely similar in public. In public, he has spoken of “millions” dying in the USA alone.

 

I see what is happening in Italy and Spain and elsewhere and it does depress me.

 

What gives me hope is the Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve. That can’t happen soon enough.

 

I know this is very long but I need to add a quick note about the economy. Some have said this is a binary choice between saving lives or saving the economy. The economy is not some abstract thing that can be shut down and destroyed without also destroying millions of lives. Anything we do to flatten that curve has to be measured against the damage that will be caused to the economy and the lives of people who depend on it. It isn’t a binary choice, like the trolly problem. There are many lives laying across both tracks.

 

You may think I’m wrong, and that’s fair, but you should hope that I am right!

Not to mention I recently seen from the news sources I read that Dr Fauci admitted he was wrong. I am sure mainstream news didn't talk about that. I don't have the link at the moment but in a search engine just type in Dr.Fauci admitted he was wrong.

 

Amendment: Sorry it wasn't Fauci  but Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yvhmf38vOg

Edited March 29, 2020 by Thoth101

[exchemist]

Thanks for that, now I too have a comment, a rather long one because now I am being adversely affected, not by the virus directly, but by the draconian measures being employed in an failed effort to control it.

 

I am not ignoring anything. What I am doing is quoting exactly what Dr Fauci has written in the New England Journal of Medicine. He is listed as the main author so these are his words: “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza”

 

His words, not mine.

 

There are a lot of numbers being tossed around that are frightening a lot of people and all I am trying to do is put this in perspective. Please tell me what part of the following you disagree with or you think is wrong.

 

Seasonal influenza takes about 36,000 lives in the USA every year. According to Dr Fauci, those fatalities are 0.1% of the number of cases. That means there are 36 million cases of the flu in the USA during a single year. If those cases were spread out evenly throughout the year, that works out to 3 million cases every month. However, the flu season peaks between December and February, and March is usually a bad month too. Right now, this month, there can be 4 or 5 million people with the flu and of that amount, at least 4,500 will die, and there will be many more who require hospitalization. The seasonal flu is a serious problem, but nobody is even mentioning it!

 

Meanwhile, there are news anchors on every network, 24 hours a day, broadcasting a running tally of cases and deaths due to Covid-19, in the most somber doomsday tone that they can muster.

 

So read these words in the most somber doomsday manner you can muster: Right now, there are about 100,000 confirmed cases and 1,500 deaths in the USA attributed to Covid-19.

 

How is it that the hospitals are facing an overload at the present time from this? How is it the hospitals handle 4,500 dead, this month alone, from the flu and also handle the many more who need hospitalization, without a crisis?

 

Of that 100,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, some 95%, or more will have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. So around 5,000 cases may require hospitalization. Not all of those will be severe enough to require to be intubated and put on a ventilator. Obviously, some will be very severe as 1,500 have died, but some of those people who go to the hospital could recover just as well by staying home. During a pandemic, the hospital is the last place that I would go to unless I was really in bad shape.

 

It looks to me that this Covid flu is at most, doubling the load that the hospitals face every year from seasonal flu. Yes, that makes it tough going but it isn’t a doomsday scenario.

 

On that death rate, I see the doom and gloom talking heads saying it is 1.5% That is because they are doing a simple-minded calculation of 1,500 deaths/100,000 confirmed cases. That is fake math!

 

We know the number of cases that are out there and unaccounted for is many times more than the number that have been confirmed. We know this because most of the confirmed cases are mild or asymptomatic. This thing did not enter the US with some “patient zero” from which it spread everywhere. It entered all over, in New York, New Orleans, California, and other places, with many “patient zeroes”.

 

Using some of that fake math, with an R0 of 2.2, one case can multiply to 2,655 cases in 10 days (2.2^10) in 20 days the number is 705,000. You can do the math yourself. Even though it is fake math, when you consider there were many patient zeroes, it is almost certainly a very low estimate of where we are now. It is very possible 50% of the US population is already infected!

 

This means that the extreme measures of locking everyone down are too late to have any real effect. The curve will slow due to herd immunity, not because we are all hiding in our homes.

 

Very soon, the scary numbers will start to come down. In the end, we may lose 20,000 or even 40,000 lives in total to this virus, in the USA alone. That is nothing to be taken lightly, but it is in line with what Dr Fauci wrote: “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza” and that happens every year!

 

The strange thing is, he writes that in the most respected medical journal but he has never once said anything even remotely similar in public. In public, he has spoken of “millions” dying in the USA alone.

 

I see what is happening in Italy and Spain and elsewhere and it does depress me.

 

What gives me hope is the Law of epidemics: A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines as a bell curve. That can’t happen soon enough.

 

I know this is very long but I need to add a quick note about the economy. Some have said this is a binary choice between saving lives or saving the economy. The economy is not some abstract thing that can be shut down and destroyed without also destroying millions of lives. Anything we do to flatten that curve has to be measured against the damage that will be caused to the economy and the lives of people who depend on it. It isn’t a binary choice, like the trolly problem. There are many lives laying across both tracks.

 

You may think I’m wrong, and that’s fair, but you should hope that I am right!

It seems to me the key to getting Fauci's paper into context is his word  "ultimately".

 

This shows he is speaking about the total, cumulative, eventual death toll. He says nothing in the extract you quote about the rate at which people will be taken ill. 

 

It is that, not the eventual total, that is the cause of the consternation.  

 

I am curious to know what you think should be done, as an alternative to the lockdown. If you do not do it, it is an indisputable fact (cf. Italy, China, Spain, and now London) that hospitals will be overwhelmed by patients needing ventilators that the hospitals do not have.  

 

 

Do you advocate allowing this to happen? If not, how would you propose to prevent it?

 

P.S. I find it remarkably odd that you should be starting to insinuate that Fauci is incompetent or mendacious. Fauci has access that you and I do not have to the various models predicting the curve for this epidemic under a variety of scenarios. Who is more likely to be right? Fauci and Imperial College or OceanBreeze?  I am starting to wonder what agenda is driving your remarks. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by exchemist

[OceanBreeze]

I really do not give a crap about pissing you or any other moderator off on this forum :)

 

 

 

 

Good! I don’t give a crap what those people think either.

 

 

We are politically incompatible :) You wont be invited for drinks, it would not go well.   

 

 

Probably not, you are probably one of those fussy pure malt scotch drinkers.

 

Good to see you back, all hale and hearty!

 

[OceanBreeze]

It seems to me the key to getting Fauci's paper into context is his word  "ultimately".

 

This shows he is speaking about the total, cumulative, eventual death toll. He says nothing in the extract you quote about the rate at which people will be taken ill. 

 

 

 

It would need to be "ultimately", wouldn’t it? The reason being that we don’t yet know enough about this new “novel” coronavirus to say just how bad this outbreak will be. And yet, the alarmists immediately chose to predict worst case scenarios by taking the very early case fatality rates and projecting them into millions of people dying.

Fauci himself was doing that. As I explained earlier, and you must know, the case fatality rate  depends greatly on how many people are actually infected, not how many you know to be infected. In the early days of an outbreak the only people you know to be infected are the ones who are most symptomatic. You simply cannot know how many actual cases of infection there are, that are showing mild, or no symptoms at all. So these early rates need to be given as sCFR (symptomatic case fatality rates) only. None of the talking heads in the media were making this distinction, and that includes Fauci.

 

Even now, we don’t know how many people are infected and the CFR cannot be determined until we do know. Only the sCFR can be given, and that distinction simply is not being made, not here in this thread (except by myself) and certainly not by the main stream media.

 

 

 

It is that, not the eventual total, that is the cause of the consternation.  

 

 

Fauci has publicly talked about “millions dying” (in the US alone) and that is also a cause for consternation and in fact, panic. Grocery store shelves emptied quickly after his public statements.

 

 

I am curious to know what you think should be done, as an alternative to the lockdown. If you do not do it, it is an indisputable fact (cf. Italy, China, Spain, and now London) that hospitals will be overwhelmed by patients needing ventilators that the hospitals do not have.  

 

 

It is not that complicated,and I have said it several times now:  People need to stay at home if they are feeling sick or they believe they have been in contact with someone who is sick. Which is a normal commonsense thing to do with any flu-like disease going around. That is what I did with the flu and what I demand from any member of the crew. You don’t need to lockdown every living soul; that can easily do more harm than good.

 

 

Do you advocate allowing this to happen? 

 

 

 

What to happen? Hospitals overflowing? You think I advocate for that? Is that supposed to be a serious question or just a shot across my bow?

 

 

 

If not, how would you propose to prevent it?

 

 

You want me to repeat it all again?

 

Stay home if you are sick or you think you have been in contact with someone who is. Practice exceptionally meticulous hygiene, especially washing hands often. Practice social distancing. Wear a mask around vulnerable people or stay away from vulnerable people if at all possible. (Vulnerable people are the elderly and people who have other health conditions that leave them more susceptible to the virus) By all means, increase the hospital bed capacity, as is done when there is any pandemic, and make more ventilators available, along with all the other required medical gear. In addition to working on developing a vaccine, explore the possibility of treatment with anti-viral drugs.

 

I also believe that a lot of the testing that is going on is not necessary. By all means, test the health care workers who are on the front lines. But for the average person who is feeling sick but not sick enough for hospitalization, what good does a covid test do? Does a positive result somehow change his prognosis or treatment? There is no treatment other than the same commonsense measures that a person would employ if they have the flu. And if they test negative, will they be back in a week’s time to be tested again, and then again until a positive result is obtained? Leave the tests for the people who need it and not for every hypochondriac who wants to wear it as a badge of honor!

 

Don’t lockdown entire cities and countries! That will do more harm than good.

 

Right here I want to say something about ventilators. I know something about them; having been trained in their use, including inserting the endotracheal tube, as we carry one on our ship. We also carry noninvasive ventilation (BiPAP & CPAP) machines. These are much simpler and much less expensive than ventilators. I am perplexed that I don’t hear anyone talking about using these machines for Covid patients. There must be hundreds of thoudands of these machines, as they can be bought online or in major pharmacies, although a prescription may be needed. I use a portable CPAP myself during allergy season, it keeps the airway open with constant pressure and helps greatly with breathing. Seems to me, as a non MD, that a CPAP machine can be useful if a ventilator is not available.

 

 

 

P.S. I find it remarkably odd that you should be starting to insinuate that Fauci is incompetent or mendacious. Fauci has access that you and I do not have to the various models predicting the curve for this epidemic under a variety of scenarios. Who is more likely to be right? Fauci and Imperial College or OceanBreeze?  I am starting to wonder what agenda is driving your remarks. 

 

 

Ah, so now you are insinuating what you think I am insinuating? You don’t need to be an MD to be able to understand models, curves and trends. In fact, engineers may be better at it.

 

As for what is driving my remarks, I hope to counter some of the more panicky predictions being made, that’s all.

I have my opinions, no agenda, but it seems that liberals do have one.

 

For example, you have mentioned Trump several times in this thread yourself, as if to say he is somehow to blame for all of this. I think I mentioned him only once, and that was to say “Trump is a buffoon, totally incapable of thinking on that level. The article was written by a professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics” hardly a ringing endorsement of Trump!

 

I will share with you what I have read on another, liberal-leaning web site that I happened across. The writer was complaining that the death rate, as high as it is, was being under-reported. He or she wanted to see it higher, much higher, to be sure that it does maximum damage to Trump’s chances of re-election! How is that for an agenda? And I’m sure that writer is not alone, not by a long shot!  Do you advocate for that? Return fire.

[sanctus]

A new analisys, way simpler, does not rely on amount of tests (or on testing at all) and waaaay scarier results. Although I admit it should be done properly with all available data, not just some cities where they make these data available and not such a short time-range.
https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

Idea is very simple, take average number of people dying in past years per given day (in the linked article they take the average from 2015). Compare it to the number of people dying at given date now in 2020. And get graph in link (screenshot-paste did not work, so yo have to open it, is in english)




Then you can also add the reported corona-deaths and you see:
1) It is way lower
2) The difference is too big for being a statistical fluctuation


I tried to do something similar in Norway, but this data is not available for mere mortals.

I also found another interesting number, in average there 150k deaths per day worldwide, with the different testing and attributions around the world for corona-deaths there are 3k around the worls the past few days. You can say that many of these 3k would have died anyway soon, so let's say 2k of the 3k are in these case. That still leaves 1k out of the 150k (or 153k) daily average due to corona. This surprised me mainly because it means a more substantial contribution to daily deaths by corona than I expected.

[Vmedvil2]

A new analisys, way simpler, does not rely on amount of tests (or on testing at all) and waaaay scarier results. Although I admit it should be done properly with all available data, not just some cities where they make these data available and not such a short time-range.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

 

Idea is very simple, take average number of people dying in past years per given day (in the linked article they take the average from 2015). Compare it to the number of people dying at given date now in 2020. And get graph in link (screenshot-paste did not work, so yo have to open it, is in english)

 

 

 

 

Then you can also add the reported corona-deaths and you see:

1) It is way lower

2) The difference is too big for being a statistical fluctuation

 

 

I tried to do something similar in Norway, but this data is not available for mere mortals.

 

I also found another interesting number, in average there 150k deaths per day worldwide, with the different testing and attributions around the world for corona-deaths there are 3k around the worls the past few days. You can say that many of these 3k would have died anyway soon, so let's say 2k of the 3k are in these case. That still leaves 1k out of the 150k (or 153k) daily average due to corona. This surprised me mainly because it means a more substantial contribution to daily deaths by corona than I expected.

3k deaths is insignificant in the grand scheme of things hopefully that will offset population growth slightly, if that is the case.

Edited March 30, 2020 by VictorMedvil

[sanctus]

3k of 150k  is 2% of total deaths and as beginning of my last post says the 3k is under-estimated

But if we say 2k of these 3k would have died anyway then you still get 0.65%.

So sorry, it is not insignificant

[Vmedvil2]

3k of 150k  is 2% of total deaths and as beginning of my last post says the 3k is under-estimated

 

But if we say 2k of these 3k would have died anyway then you still get 0.65%.

 

So sorry, it is not insignificant

It is when you consider the population is growing at a rate of 1.05% per year or that of 7.7 billion = ‭80.85 million making it far insignificant at only ‬ ‭1.095 million deaths per year from this new virus if that number considered as rate stays the same. There will be new humans to replace the dead ones from this virus as only ‭1.298% of the Growth rate or ‭.001948% of the world population total is dying from this coronavirus. In the grand scheme of things it changes nothing, for every 1 person that dies of corona-virus 77 new ones replace them. As I said before, this is a very good thing for population control, we need a few more plagues.

Edited March 30, 2020 by VictorMedvil

[OceanBreeze]

A new analisys, way simpler, does not rely on amount of tests (or on testing at all) and waaaay scarier results. Although I admit it should be done properly with all available data, not just some cities where they make these data available and not such a short time-range.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

 

Idea is very simple, take average number of people dying in past years per given day (in the linked article they take the average from 2015). Compare it to the number of people dying at given date now in 2020. And get graph in link (screenshot-paste did not work, so yo have to open it, is in english)

 

 

 

 

Then you can also add the reported corona-deaths and you see:

1) It is way lower

2) The difference is too big for being a statistical fluctuation

 

 

I tried to do something similar in Norway, but this data is not available for mere mortals.

 

I also found another interesting number, in average there 150k deaths per day worldwide, with the different testing and attributions around the world for corona-deaths there are 3k around the worls the past few days. You can say that many of these 3k would have died anyway soon, so let's say 2k of the 3k are in these case. That still leaves 1k out of the 150k (or 153k) daily average due to corona. This surprised me mainly because it means a more substantial contribution to daily deaths by corona than I expected.

 

 

I commented on that earlier, please see post #49 in this thread.

 

I thought it was a rare display of honesty as I assumed they did swab those people to see who was, and who was not, infected with the covid virus.

 

To make the case more convincing they should have listed the cause of death for the others; they must all have a cause of death on their death certificates and we should not have to draw any conclusions from statistics only.

 

For one thing, the world is in the grip of a deadly flu season which is every bit as deadly to an elderly population as covid. Earlier, in another post here, I greatly underestimated the number of deaths in the US from a recent flu season (2017-2018) as 36,000.

 

Here are the real numbers:

 

Influenza: Several strains of this virus circulate worldwide each year, mutating as they travel. The 2017-18 flu season affected 49 million Americans and claimed 79,000 lives, according to the CDC.

 

79,000! When you consider there are only a few peak months, and it slows to a crawl the rest of the year, that can mean 15,000 a month during the peak, or 500 or more dead per day, every day, for a month!

With covid, we have just had one day that exceeded 500 dead. One day versus every day for a month with the flu.

I hope that is the only day we go above 500 from covid but unfortunately, we can expect to see more.

 

Anyway, those additional deaths in Bergamo may have been flu-related or they may have been caused by the misguided efforts to save lives of old people who probably just want to be left alone.

 

Think about this for a second: Suppose you are 90 years old, living out your last days in your own home, in your familiar village surroundings, knowing your time is short. You cough, suddenly there is an ambulance pull up, with people who look like they have arrived from another planet, dressed in space suits and helmets with visors, and they proceed to carry you off to a strange hospital with strange-looking machines. Then they force a tube down your throat, nearly causing you to retch, filling your mouth with vomit, but they persist and get that tube painfully forced down your throat anyway. Now that machine is forcing you to breathe at a higher rate than you are accustomed to, and with a higher oxygen level than you are used to. They also hook you up to an IV, but your vein walls are so weak that the veins collapse and the IV fluid just backs up and does you no good at all.

 

You wonder, who are these strange people and why are they doing this to you? You are frightened, your 90-year-old heart is pounding. You can’t take this; soon, in a sigh of relief, you die.

 

They comfort each other and tell themselves they did their best.

 

No! They tortured you and killed you, when what they should have done is left you alone to die peacefully and with dignity, in your own bed at home. That was your right and they took it from you!

 

Now you tell me these researchers want to add your name to their Covid Wish List, to get that death rate up because it is TOO LOW for their liking?

 

I’d rather take my chances with “the virus”