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Putin?


Deepwater6

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http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/16/world/asia/russia-war-games/index.html

 

The recent events and military activities by Russia have been very disconcerting. I know they have a real problem with a collapsing oil market, sending their economy into a further tailspin.

 

I try to convince myself that this is somewhat of a Zeitgeist approach. Engineered by the Russians to re-build their economy through the means of a military build-up. This cold war economy was very good for the US over the decades it lasted.

 

I'm just not convinced that this is what the Russian hierarchy and Putin have in mind. I'm concerned they feel they can take more than the West is willing to let them have. I fear a miscalculation could cause events to spin out of control and start a war. For some reason, call it intuition, a "war" may be exactly what Putin with his exacerbated ego is looking for.

 

Thoughts?
 

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It's starting to look like you're right. It's not at all clear he has a "plan," and most of his initiatives over the past few years smack of Panem et Circenses: The Olympics, catering to Russian nationalism via annexing Crimea and funding insurgency in Ukraine, etc. all of which while being provocative and designed around the cult of personality that he has built around himself (very much like what the Kim's have done in North Korea, thus the irony in the latest antic he's pulled).

 

The thing that holds him back though is actually Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #35: "War is bad for business" (that follows #34 which is "war is good for business" but as one Ferengi says in a TNG episode, "but only if you're an arms dealer!"). He does get held back by the oligarchs. The only question is has the crash of the price of oil made him desperate.

 

Kremlinology is definitely back in the vogue.

 

 

There are no morals in politics; there is only expedience. A scoundrel may be of use to us just because he is a scoundrel, :phones:
Buffy
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  • 4 months later...

I'm just not convinced that this is what the Russian hierarchy and Putin have in mind. I'm concerned they feel they can take more than the West is willing to let them have. I fear a miscalculation could cause events to spin out of control and start a war. For some reason, call it intuition, a "war" may be exactly what Putin with his exacerbated ego is looking for.

 

Thoughts?

I think in global geo-politics there's no such thing as an exacerbated ego simply wanting war. To see things that way just signals a complete lack of understanding of one's adversaries...

 

I just happened to stumble on this older thread and wanted to comment that it's pretty absurd how western media seems to be completely unaware of how Nato expansion is viewed in internal Russian politics. I think all of these recent problems in international politics between the west and Russia would be easily solved with just a small dose of understanding regarding what the real problems are, and fixing them via building national security in co-operation with Russia. Yes, generally international co-operation increase security of all parties. The idea that Russia just wants to invade the world is just as absurd as the opposite idea that US "just wants to invade the world"; in both cases the arguments for aggerssions are simply based around (rather naive) missteps in trying to reach national security.

 

It makes no difference what the "opinion" of these matters are from a western point of view, but the simple fact is that Nato expansion is seen as a security threat inside Russian politics. You should be able to clearly see how Russian aggressions are directly tied to Nato expansion, and vice versa. Also, with Russia just like it is with North Korea making these absurd claims about invading the whole world with nukes, it is important to understand that those kinds of comments are primarily not actually communication to the rest of the world; they are communication to the internal politics of the country; to give an appearance of power to their own people. You know how in the US much of the media starts pulling a narrative about "weak president" when Obama or Bush doesn't make strict statements about perceived threaths. It's the same exact principle that works in every country; they say these things mainly due to internal political reasons.

 

You should also be careful of the spin that gets put around these events in Western media; they are viewed very differently inside Russia, and like it or not, it is very useful to understand how these events are viewed by different people. Just as a historical example I found hilarious just recently;

 

The narrative was that evil atheistic government is trying to invade the independent islamic people of Afghanistan, threathening to next take Iran. Surely such a thing must be stopped by any means necessary.

 

Or, how Taleban came into power.

 

I think its important to remember that when you see a coin, there's always going to be the other side to it too. There was a crisis for sure, but little bit better understanding of the situation could have actually solved it.

 

And last but definitely not least, you should find these comments from 17 years ago quite striking;

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/27/opinion/the-senate-should-halt-nato-expansion.html

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/02/opinion/foreign-affairs-now-a-word-from-x.html

 

Oh, the lessons we have not learned... Yes, I do think excessive Nato paranoia, be it for or against Nato, is causing the biggest global security threat at the moment. It should be part of public discussion, but I guess it's much easier to just pretend that all the problems are caused by some individual lonatic who is simply detached from reality.

 

-Anssi

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  • 10 months later...

I don't think Russia is acting out over the top. They have not made any unreasonable decisions.

They certainly are under a lot of pressure from NATO, hence the increased military build up, but it is all within reason.

Russia faces provocations daily from all around them, but they've kept cool heads.

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