The L'aquila Precedent

[blamski]

In what appears to be an alarming return to the middle ages, six eminent italian scientists and a government official have been found guilty of manslaughter for not accurately predicting the earthquake in 2009 that killed over 300 people. The charge is that they gave a 'falsely reassuring' statement.

 

I'm sure that everybody on this whole forum can see as clearly as I can that this is absolutely and completely crazy. The only people that could provide a defence - those that are knowledgeable enough to know that earthquakes just cannot be accurately predicted - are the ones themselves in the dock. While it was in retrospect obviously incorrect to issue information that there was no imminent danger, between them the head of Serious Risks Commission, the director of the National Earthquake Centre, and the director of the European Centre for Earthquake Engineering must have been convinced that they were (ahem) on firm ground.

 

But apart from the obvious and worthy outrage at this verdict, where does it leave science? What are the future ramifications for science and scientists if a false prediction is made, or if a necessary prediction is not made? Do we begin to try and punish the weather forecasters for starters?

 

We face a clear danger of science becoming even more beholden the political and judicial powers, and we will see less and less impartial scientists prepared to take up those positions. What seismologist in their right mind, for instance, would take over any of these now vacant positions?

[Chewbalka]

Lol this is hilarious! Love your point of view on this!

[CraigD]

This BBC article is one of many sources for this news.

 

I find it hard to imagine any way that these verdicts can be consider anything other than the state officials finding convenient scapegoats for a deadly catastrophe that no seismologists could reasonably be expected to predict, to deflect blame from themselves.

 

Many Italians are voicing their embarrassment at their government's actions. If this is the case of scapegoating it seems almost certain to be, I hope these actions are not allowed to stand, the scientists and officials convicted are exonerated, and the officials responsible are driven out of office.

[blamski]

oops... i forgot to add the link thanks, craigd for adding just the one i was looking at.

 

it goes without saying that there is some serious scapegoating going on here, but i doubt the judges will budge from their stance that the scientists issued a statement that there was nothing to worry about. its this subtle difference from not saying anything that seems to be the crux of the whole issue. and its just this fear that scientists may have about making any kind of statement that is not 100% guaranteed that could have enormous repercussions.

[labelwench]

I started a thread on this topic in September of 2011 on another forum at the time the charges were first brought up and posted an update there.

 

A considerable amount of the discussion was focused on the fact that the government had been aware for ten years or more that much of the construction in the town was not up to withstanding seismic event and yet this concern was never publicly addressed or any remedial action undertaken.

As Italy recovers from the deadly earthquake on Monday in the Abruzzo region, where the death toll has now climbed past 200, an Italian official has blamed poor enforcement of building standards and stated simply, "In California, an earthquake like this one would not have killed a single person."

 

The remark by Franco Barberi, who leads a commission on assessing risks for Italy's Civil Protection agency, was reported widely in the Italian press on Tuesday — including the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera and the Italian broadcaster RAI.

 

According to Reuters, Mr. Barberi added that problems with construction in Italy, where earthquakes are common, have come to light in the past, "Once again we are faced with the lack of control on the quality of construction."

 

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/200...would-be-dead/

 

Suffice it to say that this decision has made the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's National News once again.

 

The scientists are just being the scapegoats when you consider what was known by whom and for how long, in my opinion also.

[CraigD]

As Italy recovers from the deadly earthquake on Monday in the Abruzzo region, where the death toll has now climbed past 200, an Italian official has blamed poor enforcement of building standards and stated simply, "In California, an earthquake like this one would not have killed a single person."

 

The remark by Franco Barberi, who leads a commission on assessing risks for Italy's Civil Protection agency, was reported widely in the Italian press on Tuesday — including the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera and the Italian broadcaster RAI.

 

According to Reuters, Mr. Barberi added that problems with construction in Italy, where earthquakes are common, have come to light in the past, "Once again we are faced with the lack of control on the quality of construction."

 

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/200...would-be-dead/

That Apr 2009 story presents some interesting info. In summary, after the 6 Apr 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, Barberi, Gian Calvi and others blamed the death-causing building collapses on government failures to enforce post 1980 building standards, which they claim involved corruption of government officials by organized criminals involved in these buildings’ construction. Now, following government promises to avoid corruption by and collaboration with organized crime when rebuilding these damaged and collapsed buildings, Barberi, Calvi, and others, but apparently no corrupt government officials or construction business criminals, have been convicted of causing these deaths.

 

This seems very, dirtily, suspicious to me, and suggests that little has been done in the last 3 years to correct the government corruption problems that are the real causes of these preventable deaths.

[Turtle]

I started a thread on this topic in September of 2011 on another forum at the time the charges were first brought up and posted an update there.

 

A considerable amount of the discussion was focused on the fact that the government had been aware for ten years or more that much of the construction in the town was not up to withstanding seismic event and yet this concern was never publicly addressed or any remedial action undertaken.

 

 

Suffice it to say that this decision has made the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's National News once again.

 

The scientists are just being the scapegoats when you consider what was known by whom and for how long, in my opinion also.

 

similarly, i brought up the issue here in our earthquakes thread and got some comments from our Italian in residence qwfwq. sadly the us is no less lacking in scientific illiteracy of politicians -let alone the public at large- if the global warming issue is any indication. stupid is as stupid does. :doh:

 

...

now consider this bit. the italians are actually charging geologists with manslaughter for not predicting the 6.3 they had a couple years back!! good grief. :doh:

 

 

Italy’s Troubling Earthquake Prosecutions @ new york times

 

You may be aware of the effort under way in Italy to convict six scientists and a public official for manslaughter for statements they made about the improbability of a big earthquake as low-level tremors unnerved citizens in the Abruzzo region of central Italy in late March 2009. On April 6, the medieval town of L’Aquila was devastated by a 6.3-magnitude earthquake.

 

One can only hope that a decision earlier this week to adjourn the trial until October 1 will give the prosecution time to reconsider the merits of what amounts to a medieval-style attack on science.

...

In considering the merits of this manslaughter trial, also consider reading a post from The Lede blog following the quake in which an Italian official, warning of poor enforcement of building standards, said this:

 

In California, an earthquake like this one would not have killed a single person.

 

The official? Franco Barberi, who led the country’s risks commission in 2009 and is now one of the criminal defendants.

 

How do you spell scapegoat?

 

Sadly true, but not as simple as meets the eye.

 

Firstly, I would call it "expecting too much from science" which is somewhat the opposite of "a medieval attack on science".

 

Second, about 30 citizens presented their case and it's only fair that the machine of justice should work according to legal procedure (and don't start talking about that without knowing the complicated system over here!). Prosecutors are not scientists (obviously) and judges must obtain expert counsel according to precise procedure for these things. Each party may then challenge it with an expert of their own trust.

 

Third, fourth, fifth & waaaay onward, the case itself is not as simple as that blog makes it look, I've seen a couple of local news items and I think Thomas H. Jordan puts it in reasonable terms and Dr. Mileti says reasonable things, as quoted in this English Language article. In mentioning the "local man who is not a scientist" they presumably mean one Gioacchino Giuliani who was a technician at a physics lab, he had stirred up an unwarranted degree of alarm.

 

In my take, if someone has alarmed the mob about a risk which is actually greater than usual, but still far from a high probability, it is a delicate task to calm folks down without them mistaking it for "Everything's perfectly fine." as distinct from "We really can't predict." and journalists usually don't help with that either. For that, neither does your average neighborhood politicin or bureacrat. Of course an angry mob will then turn against whoever they believe has deceived them.