Global Warming In The Media And In Fact

[phision]

I just watched a T.V. program called, PREHISTORIC: "Denver". In this program I was informed that during the Cretaceous period CO2 levels were 6(six) times what they are today! According to wiki( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous ) it was 6 times pre-industrial levels! Also global temperatures were so much higher, than today, that there was no land locked ice anywhere(NO ICE!)!

 

Is this true?

 

Why is there always ambiguity when this type of information is presented?

 

Is current global warming really a big deal, when compared with this previous global climate?

 

 

 

[Essay]

Why is there always ambiguity when this type of information is presented?

 

It takes a longer time, and more space, to explain the nuances and resolve ambiguities.

 

From a chemistry/biochemistry point of view, it is just about the balance of fossilized carbon and airborne carbon--or stored carbon and released carbon. Is the carbon in the air or the ground? That carbon balance can affect temperature by several degrees, relative to a background of conditions that set the planet's radiative balance.

===

 

It is important to answer your question, about CO2 levels, differently depending upon which scale of time--as well as the planet's evolutionary status--you are looking at. Multiple of 5 are convenient, since the planet is roughly 5 Billion years old, and life on land started roughly 500 Million years ago--10% of planetary time--and the dinosaurs were "gone" by 50 Million years ago (Mya)... and humans arose by 5 Mya--the last 1/10 of 1% of planetary time.

 

CO2 levels were 6 times each of those numbers you mentioned--either 280ppm or ~350ppm--probably ranging from lows of 1000 or 1200 ppm up to 2000 or 2500 ppm during various eras of those Dinosaur Times; and since life first came up onto the lands, ~500 Mya, and the continents were positioned very differently.

===

 

Throughout most of the past 500 Million years, nutrient-poor (and carbon-poor) Tropical Soils predominated globally. But for the past 50 Million years, Earth has been on a fairly stable (cooling) course; a path where Temperate Soils finally were able to evolve and dominate--soils that could support productive agriculture.

 

So before the last extinction event, 65 Mya, Temperate Soils only existed near polar latitudes. After much recovery and the rise of the mammals (especially herbivores) and the grasses, the past 50 million years have cooled enough to allow Antarctica to ice over. The Temperate (carbon-rich) Soils moved into the mid-latitudes (aided by the grass/dung/soil cycle) and continued drawing CO2 levels lower as fossil soil resources (carbon rich) developed and increased. The Atlantic grew to favor a global conveyor of cold deep water, as other ocean currents developed when the continents came to approximate their current position, over the past 20 to 30 million years. The Arctic also developed during this more recent half of the past 50 million years, when Temperate Soils became predominant, and the planet continued to cool--and the four seasons were finally able to evolve--consigning the tropical world to the equatorial latitudes.

 

During the past 5 million years, after the planet cooled enough for Ice Age conditions to predominate, humans developed. And then at ~500 kya we came to use fire as a tool to better manage our resources. That enabled tool use (~50 kya) and finally agriculture (~5 kya) to intensively and extensively manage those fossil soils (which had brought CO2 levels down to "pre-industrial" levels). Even today, agriculture creates 1/3 of greenhouse gas emmisions globally.

 

Is current global warming really a big deal, when compared with this previous global climate?

Humans are shifting that long-evolved balance between airborne carbon and carbon stored in the ground. If we want to survive as a civilization, we shouldn't shift the balance too quickly or too far. Management of that carbon balance would be a good goal for humanity. We have succeeded in preventing the return of global glacial conditions, but we also now need to prevent the return of global tropical conditions, which will degrade our precious arable soils and reduce crop productivity and agricultural yield.

===

 

So comparing Cretaceous CO2 levels with today is like comparing something on two different planets. Limit your comparisons of Quaternary conditions to those of the Tertiary--the last 1% of planetary time--at most, unless you add some significant adjustments and qualifications. If you want to see how CO2 affects climate today, you should probably limit the comparisons to times when other conditions more closely matched current conditions--to between 5 and 50 million years into the past (or look at the PETM ~55 Mya as a cutoff). The closer you get to current geologic time--looking at the past 5 million to 500,000, or even the past 50,000 years--the easier it is to compare historical CO2 levels.

 

Also, many of CO2's effects take from decades to centuries to be fully manifested, as with melting ice sheets. Recently, the levels have changed too fast for an accurate comparison with past levels (and the effects of those past levels), since the past levels changed more slowly and maintained the same level (or fluctuated around a mean) for much longer periods of history. Check into the Miocene and Eocene climates if you want a long-term benchmark for comparison with currently projected levels.

 

 

Understanding Earth's Deep Past, National Academy of Sciences, 2011

 

"By the end of this century, without a reduction in emissions, atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase to levels Earth has not experienced for more than 30 million years."

 

Thirty million years worth of change, within a century; wow.

 

That is before honeybees, earthworms, we, or our cereal crops evolved.

That will counteract the effect of the Milankovitch Cycle on global glaciations.

 

I wonder if there will be any consequences to biodiversity and evolution.

 

~ ;)

[suresh123]

According to me if that was the conditions at that time ,then billions of humans were not at that time.Industries ,automobiles and factories were not there at that time.We are making our own conditions more worst.

Media's report is essential for clearing the wax of the ear of people who don't even think about the nature.

[phision]

Thirty million years worth of change, within a century; wow.

I've had difficulty confirming your quote,"By the end of this century, without a reduction in emissions, atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase to levels Earth has not experienced for more than 30 million years.", which you attributed to "Understanding Earth's Deep Past, National Academy of Sciences, 2011."

However, assuming the quote is accurate your interpretation of it, quoted above, is wholly in accurate, alarmist and sensationalist!

 

That is before honeybees, earthworms, we, or our cereal crops evolved.

 

Honey Bee: "The first Apis bees appear in the fossil record at the Eocene–Oligocene (23-56 Mya) boundary, in European deposits. The origin of these prehistoric honey bees does not necessarily indicate that Europe is where the genus originated, only that it occurred there at that time. There are few known fossil deposits in South Asia, the suspected region of honey bee origin, and fewer still have been thoroughly studied."- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honey_bee

 

Earthworms: "Earthworms in general have been around for 120 million years"- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worm

 

We[sic](us): The implication being that we would not be able to survive in this new extreme! However, "The evolutionary history of primates can be traced back 65 million years."- http://en.wikipedia....umans#Evolution , and these are animals with similar climatic needs to Humans.

 

Cereal crops: Cereal grains were domesticated about 12,000 years ago from grasses which have existed for at least 55 million years (http://en.wikipedia....aceae#Evolution).

 

That will counteract the effect of the Milankovitch Cycle on global glaciations.

Milutin Milanković studied many earth cycles which are presented graphically in this link http://en.wikipedia....bitandCores.png and can be read about in this one http://en.wikipedia....nkovitch_cycles which can be used to predict insolation only!

 

I wonder if there will be any consequences to biodiversity and evolution.

 

~ ;)

 

I'm sure there will be consequences to biodiversity and evolution but feel that we must refrain from categorising these as good or bad!

[Deepwater6]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/08/us/record-warmth/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

 

I found this article on CNN that may interest you.

[Michaelangelica]

 

Climate Myths sorted by taxonomy

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?f=taxonomy

[SaxonViolence]

People with non-conceptual mentalities cannot seem to grasp that we're headed into another Ice Age.

 

This was thoroughly determined before anyone had ever conceived of "Global Warming".

 

Now let us suppose, for the sake of discussion, that the proponents of global Warming are correct.....

 

Even if it gets so hot that there is not a speck of Ice left anywhere on Earth.....

 

If we get a Runaway Greenhouse Effect, and Earth ends up Hotter than Venus.....

 

O My Brothers, It will Still--By Definition--Be an

 

Ice Age

 

A curious Atypical Paradoxical Hot Ice Age; But an Ice Age nonetheless.

 

Saxon Violence

Edited June 18, 2012 by SaxonViolence

[CraigD]

People with non-conceptual mentalities cannot seem to grasp that we're headed into another Ice Age.

I’ve only the vaguest of ideas what your mean by “people with non-conceptual mentalities”, SV. Please support your claim with links or references!

 

Even if it gets so hot that there is not a speck of Ice left anywhere on Earth.....

...

O My Brothers, It will Still--By Definition--Be an

 

Ice Age

The usual definition of “ice age” is something like this one, from the 2009 American Heritage dictionary:

1. A cold period marked by episodes of extensive glaciation alternating with episodes of relative warmth.

2. The most recent glacial period, which occurred during the Pleistocene Epoch.

Your definition is a strange, and, I suspect, personal one. Defining common phrases very differently than most people isn’t, I think, a very useful practice. :thumbs_do

 

I’ve a hunch you’re equating ice ages with minimums in orbital insolation forcing, the predictable variations in the Earth’s orbit and inclination. Orbital forcing, however, is just one of many factors that cause glacial and interglacial periods.

 

...

If we get a Runaway Greenhouse Effect, and Earth ends up Hotter than Venus.....

I think it’s important to understand that the idea of a runaway greenhouse effect (AKA Venus syndrome) occurring on Earth within the next hundred million years is a very speculative one. That a RGE was necessary for Venus to reach its current hot, liquid surface water-less state – that is, that it would not have lost its liquid water without its powerful atmospheric greenhouse effect – is also very speculative.

 

Unfortunately, IMHO, some well-known scientists, especially astrophysicist James Hansen, have asserted that a Venus syndrome on Earth within a century is much more certain than I believe science can support.

 

It’s a good and thought-provoking to consider extreme scenarios like the Venus syndrome, and not rule out their possibility until more certain models and simulations confirm or refute them with scientific rigor.

 

In his 2009 book Storms of My Grandchildren, Hansen writes:

“After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I’ve come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty.”

 

I find this paragraph vague and confusing. If answering the posed question “difficult to say based on present information”, how, then can he conclude “If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty.”

 

While I admire Hansen’s advocacy for a careful, scientifically informed approach to climate management, I fear that statements like this bring discredit to this approach. I think this wikipedia section summarizes my concerns.

[SaxonViolence]

This reminds me of long Rancorous arguments that I used to have with a "Friend".

 

Every Friday, I'd bid everyone to be happy and smile, because it was Payday.....

 

And he'd always want to argue that Thursday was payday, since thats when our employer handed out our checks.

 

I told him again and again that through long usage, "Friday" and "Payday" had become synonymous--regardless of when, or even if one was paid.

 

What amazed me was his sheer persistence and anger with which he argued.

 

Everyone else would smile and laugh at my exhortation.

 

Saxon Violence

[Turtle]

This reminds me of long Rancorous arguments that I used to have with a "Friend".

 

Every Friday, I'd bid everyone to be happy and smile, because it was Payday.....

 

And he'd always want to argue that Thursday was payday, since thats when our employer handed out our checks.

 

I told him again and again that through long usage, "Friday" and "Payday" had become synonymous--regardless of when, or even if one was paid.

 

What amazed me was his sheer persistence and anger with which he argued.

 

Everyone else would smile and laugh at my exhortation.

 

Saxon Violence

 

i think you just like to make trouble mister. both for your "friend" and for this board. how's about the board's rule set that exhorts you to back up your claims?

[Deepwater6]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2012/07/its-simple-global-warming-is-causing-the-extreme-weather/

 

This article may interest you Phision. In the midst of another week of oppresive heat here in the East coasts keystone state. The forecast is calling for 95-100 degree temps all next week with no end in sight. Already lost 3 white pine trees, a Poplar, and a Holly bush. Trying hard to save the 10' white Birch I had planted last yr. The Birch has lost a lot of leaves and some are turning yellow. Can only help it so much though, have a well and my neighbors and I can only stress the system so much. Anybody know a good rain dance?

[JMJones0424]

Anybody know a good rain dance?

No, but whatever I did last year is working this year, so apparently rain dances are only good if you plan ahead.

 

On saving trees- best thing you could do is mulch the ground around the tree from about 4 inches away from the trunk all the way out to the drip edge (draw a circle from the outermost part of the canopy straight down). This will kill the grass and reduce evaporation loss. When watering, don't water like you would for a lwan, as this only penetrates down a few inches and will be rapidly lost to evaporation. Instead, either water slowly but heavily, so that the ground is saturated down past six inches deep, or look into buying or making tree irrigation stakes (here's a link to the first example I found online, I have not used this particular product nor do I recommend it over any other: http://www.deepdrip.com/) to water the subsoil directly.

 

I feel your pain, the drought last year devastated my homestead and I lost all but the hardiest of live and post oaks and scrub trees. If it looks like it may be a long, hot, dry summer, best to do a type of triage and identify those trees that you are least willing to lose and take care of them rather than trying to save them all.

[Deepwater6]

No, but whatever I did last year is working this year, so apparently rain dances are only good if you plan ahead.

 

On saving trees- best thing you could do is mulch the ground around the tree from about 4 inches away from the trunk all the way out to the drip edge (draw a circle from the outermost part of the canopy straight down). This will kill the grass and reduce evaporation loss. When watering, don't water like you would for a lwan, as this only penetrates down a few inches and will be rapidly lost to evaporation. Instead, either water slowly but heavily, so that the ground is saturated down past six inches deep, or look into buying or making tree irrigation stakes (here's a link to the first example I found online, I have not used this particular product nor do I recommend it over any other: http://www.deepdrip.com/) to water the subsoil directly.

 

I feel your pain, the drought last year devastated my homestead and I lost all but the hardiest of live and post oaks and scrub trees. If it looks like it may be a long, hot, dry summer, best to do a type of triage and identify those trees that you are least willing to lose and take care of them rather than trying to save them all.

 

Thanks JmJones. I do utilize mulch when I plant, but you answered a question I did have about watering. I usually set the shower setting on the hose where the trunk goes into the ground. I'll put it on slowly and let it drench the area for about 15-20 minutes. The thinking is to get the water to the tap root. If I'm understanding you correctly and by how the link you sent instructs, it should all be done at the drip edge. I'll adjust my target for that area. I have the material to make those watering spikes at home it will be a good Saturday morning project. Ask and you shall receive, wicked T-Storm last night with heavy rain, but were going to need more than that. Thx

Edited July 16, 2012 by CraigD

[phision]

Climate Myths sorted by taxonomy

 

http://www.skeptical....php?f=taxonomy

I think the links contained in the link above go some way to high-lighting the vast array of conflicting information that is being presented to the public!

 

http://abcnews.go.co...xtreme-weather/

 

This article may interest you Phision... Anybody know a good rain dance?

 

It did, and defines the need for to decide on whether to try and prevent things getting worse or reverse the trend altogether OR just to accept this is happening and learn to deal with the consequences. WE need to decide globally what we're going to do!

 

As for the rain dance(http://en.wikipedia....popular_culture) just give it hard evenly spaced slaps as needed!:weather_rain:

 

On a serious note did you consider all the relevant factors before selecting your trees? are they suited to their new habitat or were they choosen purely for their aesthetic properties. If the later is true then perhaps giving-up the losing battle of maintenance and using more suited species may give a better experience. This web-site may help: http://www.tree-plan...-planting-1.htm

[Turtle]

...

It did, and defines the need for to decide on whether to try and prevent things getting worse or reverse the trend altogether OR just to accept this is happening and learn to deal with the consequences. WE need to decide globally what we're going to do!

...

 

i think you set up a false dichotomy. WE need to work on both fronts at the same time.

 

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.~Benjamin Franklin

trivia: Franklin was the first scientist to track the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic ocean.

 

here's some news on Global Warming in the Media And In Fact.

 

State of the Climate in 2011: Highlights

Each year, following months of number crunching and fact-checking, several hundred climate and earth scientists contribute to a global-scale evaluation of climate and environmental conditions over the previous year.

 

This analysis -our planet's annual checkup- is known as the State of the Climate report. Highlights of the State of the Climate in 2011 report include wild weather extremes, a double-dip La Nina, the first-ever Arctic ozone hole, and continued evidence of long-term climate warming.

 

>> Full Text of State of the Climate 2011 Report PDF

[Deepwater6]

http://www.brighterblooms.com/product/lombardy-poplar.html

 

I used this website that has zones in it I'm it zone 5/6. I assume most outlets have the same general area's for tree's. My landscaper had the Birch on his property to a hardy 10' tall. The last two summers have been marked with extreme stretches of heat then a deluge of rain.

 

The White pines I purchased are a fairly hardy tree and good for privacy, but I must admit although in my zone I bought the Birch purely for aesthetics. As a youngster I spent alot time paying no attention to trees other than climbing them. Now as I age I find myself sitting on my deck and just admiring the majesty and grace of these living giants. From the two mighty Oaks that my neighbor has across the street that tower over everything to the tiny Japanese maple's simple beauty.

 

Back to our topic: I tend to agree with your last statement. WE as a people are going to have to learn to accept what is happening and deal with the consequences. It doesn't appear that the current leaders of this planet are capable of coming together. All I know is the last two summers have been brutal even my normally lush green Pennslyvania grass yard is burnt up yellow, hard as concrete. Something doesn't seem right. Tipping point??

[Deepwater6]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/us/us-drought/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

 

Some pictures and a short description of the damage being done.