LaurieAG Posted March 2, 2018 Report Share Posted March 2, 2018 LaurieAG, I'm taking it for granted the sinking ship has no heat tiles of any kind on it as the space shuttle did. How much of it do you believe will make it through? It all depends on its orbit and construction Deepwater6. If it becomes elongated it could burn harder on reentry and whatever was left could punch through. It could also burn itself up gradually during its wobbles. Skylab came down in Western Australia although it weighs around 10 times more than Tiangong 1. If anything did come in many people would be interested in collecting/buying the remains lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 2, 2018 Report Share Posted March 2, 2018 And those 3 NEO's just show how much we need to pick up our game with respect to identifying these things earlier. It seems like one way would be to create an observation network between Venus and Mars where we can identify potential incoming objects in a basketball zone like defence with many overlapping zones. Ideally we should have many observation stations and a fast simple detection technology/strategy linked together in a light signal based communications network. Probably a better application than a mere communication satellite network for the efforts of someone like Elon Musk but there won't be any real money in it until something strikes a city/town etc and causes a lot of damage (and insurance company angst. Lets hope, if this ever happens, that it's a relatively small one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deepwater6 Posted March 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2018 I read some where, and found it amusing that Australia actually fined NASA $400 for littering when Skylab came down. I believe a radio show paid it for them as a promotional bit. LaurieAG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 7, 2018 Report Share Posted March 7, 2018 Even though I missed yesterdays rough reading the rate of decline seems to have settled down, the altitude of nominal burst has stabilised and it doesn't seem to be wobbling as much as before, so it looks like TIANGONG 1 is on the home straight with close to 30 km left to drop. Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 02/3/2018 7:00pm 251.72km 1.05km 217 03/3/2018 8:00pm 250.72km 1.00km 217 04/3/2018 7:00pm 249.84km 0.88km 217 05/3/2018 8:00pm 248.89km 0.95km 217 247.95km 0.94km 217 07/3/2018 8:00pm 247.00km 0.95km 217 It just intrigues me why the US StratCom forecast is over 4 days higher than 30 days (at a linear 1.00km per day) so I wonder if they have factored in another bounce or 2? I'll stick with my previous guestimate of just after midnight on April 2 as the rate of decline will probably be higher than 1.00km per day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 9, 2018 Report Share Posted March 9, 2018 I predict that a heretofore unknown comet will soon appear and strike Mercury. :eight: =@ LaurieAG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 9, 2018 Report Share Posted March 9, 2018 (edited) I predict that a heretofore unknown comet will soon appear and strike Mercury. :eight: =@ Hey Turtle, I just googled it there's a site on the list 'Why does Mercury have more craters than other planets" but the site won't let me connect. But I did get a google copy from the 5th of this month and it says that because Mercury has no atmosphere it just looks like it has more craters because they haven't eroded yet. You got some inside info Turtle? ;) Also the Tiangong I altitude of nominal burst has dropped to 181 km and it's currently around 245 km so the forecast is 64km dropped in 32 days or 2km per day on average if the figures are straight. Edited March 9, 2018 by LaurieAG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 11, 2018 Report Share Posted March 11, 2018 Well I missed a day again but the figures are fairly consistent and TIANGONG I doesn't appear to be wobbling as much as it was before. I also found a recent forecast from ESA 5 days ago and its reentry update page has a nice plot of their projected ranges. Interestingly enough, if I plot my forecast date with the current altitude and keep the path consistent within their ranges I get an altitude of nominal burst of around 180km. The US StratComm forecast crept in an extra day (from 2 days ago) to 4 weeks now so it has only got 7 extra days for its forecast to come in before it matches mine. Their forecast is at the top of the ESA range, at the ESA minimum altitude of nominal burst, so it must be a maximum reentry date/time forecast. Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 08/3/2018 7:00pm 246.16km 0.84km 181 09/3/2018 7:00pm 245.12km 1.04km 181 243.94km 1.14km 11/3/2018 7:00pm 242.80km 1.14km 124The last European Space Agency (ESA) update was on March 6.http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/01/12/tiangong-1-reentry-updates/The current estimated window is ~29 March to ~9 April; this is highly variable. The ESA FAQ/Blog is here.http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/01/16/tiangong-1-frequently-asked-questions-2/From monitoring the controlled reentries of those types of spacecraft, it can be surmised that Tiangong-1 will break up during its atmospheric re-entry and that some parts will survive the process and reach the surface of Earth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 12, 2018 Report Share Posted March 12, 2018 The forecast from Satview has come in an extra 7 days in 1 day although the altitude of nominal burst has only gone up to 126km. While this forecast isn't that many hours different from mine, just after midnight on April 2, it is nevertheless an April Fools day forecast. The reentry location per the US StratCom has stayed largely the same although that could just reflect either the forecast has not been updated or for other reasons. Regardless of the actual reentry point and date/time and considering the recent split to the arctic polar vortex and the plethora of cyclones travelling down the coral sea, it is probably time to think about incorporating these types of things into a realistic international man made climate change treaty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 15, 2018 Report Share Posted March 15, 2018 Well here's the latest data (roughly 1.25km per day) but I'm not sure how straight the data and the other details are as ESA hasn't updated their forecast for 9 days and the Satview reentry forecast is over 30 hours old here AEST as I write this (Update Wed 14-Mar-2018 22:10 UTC). The data changes irregularly (it said 238.40km earlier then 238.80km then down to 238.40km again this evening AEST). So TIANGONG I is apparently bouncing around and the reentry location stated as being supplied by US StratCom has been staying too static then bouncing around between off the US East Coast/mainland USA and off the East coast of Australia or near where the cyclone is currently spawning off north Western Australia in Irian Jaya/West Papua. The projections on the 13th went to 7 mins after midnight on the 2nd of April (mine, ha ha) before going back up to 9 April at 1:45am AEST so someone certainly has a sense of humour although the "Elon Musk walks out of Tesla" adverts on the phone/web versions of Satview are pushing that sense of humour to the limits (if not excuses to load up cryptominers/ransomware). Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 12/3/2018 8:00pm 241.23km 1.57km 124 13/3/2018 7:00pm 240.18km 1.05km 126 14/3/2018 8:00pm 239.22km 0.96km 121 15/3/2018 8:30pm 237.88km 1.34km 131 Other Considerations (1) I mentioned in an earlier post about "other reasons" and I'll just specify that this isn't with regards to Satview/ESA/USstratCom (they may have their own reasons) but with direct regards to third partys who are working for 4th parties. These 3rd parties are basically criminals with access to US government systems (among many others) and the 4th parties are those who would benefit immensely (financially) should a war break out between major international powers. It would not surprise me if somebody is screwing about with the data with zero day exploits that not even the US government knows about, and that's not from paranoid conspiracy theorists it's from ISC SANS. (2) Today a thought popped into my head, Jesus what if there was some poor bastard(s) in that thing trying to bring it down safely (ocean not land) so here's the longest bow pull ever seen for the reentry location if this is the case. 17,17 S 17,3 W near Ascension Island, a British overseas territory in the southern Atlantic with an RAF base. My date/time forecast stays the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 There is no sign of any real elongation of the orbits in the data shown below, broken into daily readings 12 hours apart, and the maximum deviation between the sets is less than half a kilometer. If you just looked at all the data together you might have come to a different conclusion. The first set is UTC 12:00 while the second set is before at UTC 00:00. That's all good because it makes projection so much easier :). Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 16/3/2018 8:00pm 236.16km 1.72km 130 17/3/2018 8:00pm 234.23km 1.83km 120 18/3/2018 8:00pm 232.10km 2.13km 134 19/3/2018 8:30pm 230.17km 1.93km 119 20/3/2018 8:00pm 227.64km 2.53km 129 Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 16/3/2018 10:00am 236.54km 1.86km 130 17/3/2018 10:00am 235.13km 1.41km 120 18/3/2018 10:00am 233.02km 2.11km 134 19/3/2018 10:00am 231.03km 1.99km 119 20/3/2018 10:00am 228.18km 2.85km 131 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Here are some photo's I took of TIANGONG 1 passing over tonight. As I don't have the ability to attach files you'll have to follow the link. https://forum.cosmoquest.org/showthread.php?152373-China-Space-Station&p=2443790#post2443790 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I just captured another pic of TIANGONG 1 passing over head at 7:21pm AEST 23 March 2018. https://forum.cosmoquest.org/showthread.php?152373-China-Space-Station&p=2443977#post2443977 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 This morning I received an error message on the Satview phone version of their website that said that there was an error in the app with regards to Google maps and, while it came good reasonably quickly, the website and phone version of the same are producing inconsistent details. The website said 'Update Fri 23-Mar-2018 8:06 UTC' (6:06pm AEST) when the altitude was 221.14km and then stayed the same for 220.42km later. The phone version of the website says that the orbital element is from 03:85 today, which is 1:58pm AEST if it is UTC, while the current altitude is 220.42km which is the same as the latest website data. I'll have to have a good think about the actual timing of the data in my next post, maybe even go back to one day with a best fit for the other set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 (edited) Here are my revised sets. The 6:pm and 6:am AEST details are unchanged while in the 12:00 noon set some are adjusted, some not. The deviation between the sets is still less than 1.00km. I have posted the link to my pics below and must note that Tiangong 1 came by around 5 mins earlier than the Satview forecast tonight. Although tonight's image was a bit rough due to clouds it still follows the same angle across the sky as the other images. Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 21/3/2018 6:00am 226.94km 2.13km 134 22/3/2018 6:00am 224.71km 2.23km 123 23/3/2018 6:00am 222.55km 2.26km 133 24/3/2018 6:00am 218.47km 2.08km 127 Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 21/3/2018 12:00 noon 226.03km 2.69km 134 22/3/2018 12:00 noon 223.53km 2.50km 123 23/3/2018 12:00 noon 221.22km 2.31km 125 24/3/2018 12:00 noon 218.47km 2.75km 127 Date Time (AEST) Altitude Difference ANB 21/3/2018 6:00pm 225.45km 2.19km 134 22/3/2018 6:00pm 222.70km 2.75km 133 23/3/2018 6:00pm 220.42km 2.28km 125 24/3/2018 6:00pm 217.58km 2.84km 126 China Manned Space daily up to 22 March 2018. http://en.cmse.gov.cn/col/col1763/index.html https://forum.cosmoquest.org/showthread.php?152373-China-Space-Station&p=2444060#post2444060 Edited March 24, 2018 by LaurieAG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Hey Turtle, I just googled it there's a site on the list 'Why does Mercury have more craters than other planets" but the site won't let me connect. But I did get a google copy from the 5th of this month and it says that because Mercury has no atmosphere it just looks like it has more craters because they haven't eroded yet. You got some inside info Turtle? ;) Also the Tiangong I altitude of nominal burst has dropped to 181 km and it's currently around 245 km so the forecast is 64km dropped in 32 days or 2km per day on average if the figures are straight. No factual info, just a wild but compelling thought inside my caranium. LaurieAG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 When that compelling thought pops into your head Turtle, you just gotta follow your natural instinct. They should name it the Turtle crater. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaurieAG Posted March 27, 2018 Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 (edited) Since March 25 in the evening and after a 24 hour hiatus, Satcom and USstratCom have resumed producing observations and projections, although there are some discrepancies with the earlier results and todays results and their subsequent projections/observations. Date Time (AEST) Time diff Velocity V diff Altitude Alt diff Avg 9h Alt diff March 21 2018 19:56 0 27972km/s 0 225.45km 0.00 0.0 ... March 27 2018 09:06 133h 28004km/s -32km/s 208.04km 17.41km 1.18km/9hrs March 27 2018 18:06 9h 27968km/s +36km/s 207.45km 0.59km 0.59km/9hrs All I can say is that this is just as bad as those Australian ball tamperers, "it just aint cricket!", and my projection remains the same. Edited March 27, 2018 by LaurieAG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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