A Mini Ice Age Starting In 2020?

[Cyberia]

Moderation note: the first 12 posts of this thread were moved from Still no sunspots... because they are about a different topic,

 

There are some stories of a mini ice age starting in 2020. Any ideas?

[Turtle]

There are some stories of a mini ice age starting in 2020. Any ideas?

 

you'll have to be more specific. who is telling the stories & where? how exactly does real scientific solar research support the claim with evidence?

 

in any regard, asserting a specific year for the beginning of an "age" of climate is nothing less than wild speculation of the unscientific kind. it just doesn't work that way.

 

as always i recommend Spaceweather.com for following sun activity on a daily basis and locating authoritive explanatory articles on the current state of solar research. :smilingsun:

 

 

>> Spaceweather.com

[Cyberia]

Earth facing a mini-Ice Age 'within ten years' due to rare drop in sunspot activity

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2003824/Earth-facing-mini-Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html

 

 

This looks like being the fifth poor summer in a row in northern Europe and at one time it was rare for snow before xmas but last year we had it in November.

[Turtle]

Earth facing a mini-Ice Age 'within ten years' due to rare drop in sunspot activity

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2003824/Earth-facing-mini-Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html

 

 

This looks like being the fifth poor summer in a row in northern Europe and at one time it was rare for snow before xmas but last year we had it in November.

 

 

...Mr Hill and his colleagues wouldn't discuss the effects of a quiet sun on temperature or global warming.

 

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2003824/Earth-facing-mini-Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html#ixzz1SIthoFx5

 

 

imagine that.

[Cyberia]

Our heat comes from the sun. Less solar radiation means a cooler Earth, and that governments now spending billions on "global warming" will be trying to encourage people to try and warm up a very cold Earth.

[Turtle]

Our heat comes from the sun. Less solar radiation means a cooler Earth, and that governments now spending billions on "global warming" will be trying to encourage people to try and warm up a very cold Earth.

 

erhm....no.

 

please read the whole article as i have kept the quote to the summary. the article gives a full explanation and there are links to other articles on this idea that fewer sunspots mean a cooler earth, let alone an iceage.

Are we headed for a new ice age?

...

So, to wrap things up in a nice little bow:

 

1) Claims of an imminent global ice age are at best exaggerated.

 

2) The link of global cooling to an extended solar magnetic minimum is tenuous, and almost certainly needs something else to force it to occur (like lots of volcanoes), and

 

3) We’re not even all that sure we’re headed for an extended minimum.

 

I know a lot of folks tend to panic, and a lot of so-called "news" outlets know that disasters sell ad space. So there you go. No need to panic yet over global cooling. And we’ve still got warming deniers to deal with.

[Cyberia]

I see the article you pointed to managed to work out that sunspots cause hot weather. Duh. They are caused by the sun's magnetic flux and so storms and prominences on the sun, so the more heat it puts out, the warmer the Earth gets.

 

Research on past Ice Ages have shown that they began in as little as six months, so not a long period of cooling. It just needs the sun to be cooler, or a super volcano or asteroid impact to put enough dust in the air to cause it.

 

I know America is hot at present but in Europe we have our fifth bad summer in a row, where people have put coats on in the day time in the middle of July and lit fires at night. Last year we had the first snow (and it was heavy) in November for a long time. And then we had heavy snow in early December, with temperatures of -30.C in eastern Europe and Germany. Normally it is not till early New Year that we have such bad weather. With weather like that you can't blame people for thinking of a coming ice age.

[Turtle]

...

I know America is hot at present but in Europe we have our fifth bad summer in a row, where people have put coats on in the day time in the middle of July and lit fires at night. Last year we had the first snow (and it was heavy) in November for a long time. And then we had heavy snow in early December, with temperatures of -30.C in eastern Europe and Germany. Normally it is not till early New Year that we have such bad weather. With weather like that you can't blame people for thinking of a coming ice age.

 

i remind you the topic here is (was) the sunspot count for cycle 23, not global climate change. perhaps the staff will see fit to move these unrelated posts somewhere appropriate.

 

anyway, weather is not climate. you imply that all of america is hot & that is simply not the case. i'm in the pacific northwest of america & we are having cooler than normal weather; it's barely 60F here. our cooling and the heating in the midwest is due to la niña & its effect on the path of the jet stream. it is weather, not climate. your weather is not climate either and i can blame you for promoting misinformation. good grief.

 

> http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html

 

> climate defined

...Climate (from Ancient Greek klima, meaning inclination) is commonly defined as the weather averaged over a long period of time.[2] The standard averaging period is 30 years,[3] but other periods may be used depending on the purpose. Climate also includes statistics other than the average, such as the magnitudes of day-to-day or year-to-year variations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) glossary definition is:

 

Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather," or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.[4]

The difference between climate and weather is usefully summarized by the popular phrase "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get."...

[Cyberia]

Turtle. Actually the title of the thread is "Still no sunspots". How do you make that into "The sunspot count for cycle 23"?

 

You don't want to reply to a post, you don't have to.

 

I was thinking of the NY side of America as in Buffalo where my uncle and cousins live.

 

As the sun goes through 11 years, 22 years and longer cycles, and there is no permanent settled climate for the world, it is all weather since in reality climate change would have to be over maybe a century to show some sign of permanence and that it was not just another long spell of "weather".

[Turtle]

Turtle. Actually the title of the thread is "Still no sunspots". How do you make that into "The sunspot count for cycle 23"?

 

because it's cycle 23 that went long & had no sunspots.

 

You don't want to reply to a post, you don't have to.

 

if you read the whole thread you know this isn't the first wandering off. i don't care for it much, but if i'm in for a penny, i guess i'm in for a pound. que sera sera.

 

I was thinking of the NY side of America as in Buffalo where my uncle and cousins live.

 

yes well, you said "america". you can't expect me to divine what you are thinking; i can only go by what you say/write.

 

As the sun goes through 11 years, 22 years and longer cycles, and there is no permanent settled climate for the world, it is all weather since in reality climate change would have to be over maybe a century to show some sign of permanence and that it was not just another long spell of "weather".

 

you sound like a couple buddies of mine here who wanted to redefine "pollution"* rather than adapt their thinking to the accepted definition. one argued that since there are extremophiles then there really is no pollution. :doh: climate science is as climate science does and if you want to engage in a discourse on climate science then you have to adopt the language and methods that climate scientists use. i gave the accepted definition and if you choose to ignore it then whatever you have to say is not climate science.

 

* natural sources of pollution

[Cyberia]

Turtle. 2005 lots of sunspots. 2006 almost no sunspots. That was rather quick.

 

Threads do wander off the point. So what. They are not text books.

 

Looking at a temperature map of America this morning, much of it is very hot at present and only on the west coast are there some relatively cool spots.

 

As we have runs of hot years and runs of cold years, so how can maybe five hot years be called climate change when it can be followed by five cold years? Climate change is centuries, as in it will outlast people living now. Weather is anything shorter, as in four decades ago they were talking about the coming Ice Age.

 

As to pollution, you would have to define exactly what you mean since the Earth has always had some kind of pollution long before Man came along, and without dust in the air for rain droplets to form around, we'd be in trouble.

[Turtle]

Turtle. 2005 lots of sunspots. 2006 almost no sunspots. That was rather quick.

that's space weather for ya. what's your point here?

 

Threads do wander off the point. So what. They are not text books.

again if you read the thread you will have noticed a moderation note that off-topic posts were moved. this is our forum & we like it neat.

 

Looking at a temperature map of America this morning, much of it is very hot at present and only on the west coast are there some relatively cool spots.

 

As we have runs of hot years and runs of cold years, so how can maybe five hot years be called climate change when it can be followed by five cold years? Climate change is centuries, as in it will outlast people living now. Weather is anything shorter, as in four decades ago they were talking about the coming Ice Age.

you seem not to have read the sources i gave. the standard averaging for climate is 30 years. there is no question that we are warming over that period. so far you have offered no authoritive support or reference for your claims, rather only your opinion based on poor and/or incomplete understanding of climate science. that's not how we roll.

 

Reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the 2nd millennium according to various older articles (bluish lines), newer articles (reddish lines), and instrumental record (black line)

back to the topic, the sun is about to go blank in a solar maximim period. duck & cover!!! :doh:

Daily Sun: 24 Jul 11

source

The sun is growing quiet as all three Earthside sunspot groups decay. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

Sunspot number: 41

What is the sunspot number?

Updated 23 Jul 2011

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2011 total: 1 day (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Since 2004: 820 days

Typical Solar Min: 486 days

Updated 23 Jul 2011

 

[Essay]

I know America is hot at present but in Europe we have our fifth bad summer in a row, where people have put coats on in the day time in the middle of July and lit fires at night. Last year we had the first snow (and it was heavy) in November for a long time. And then we had heavy snow in early December, with temperatures of -30.C in eastern Europe and Germany. Normally it is not till early New Year that we have such bad weather. With weather like that you can't blame people for thinking of a coming ice age.

 

Ice ages develop when the wattage per square meter, at 65degrees N. latitude, drops enough (usually from Milankovitch or solar/orbital forcing) to allow snow to persist throughout the summer... and to accumulate new snow over the next year... and so on.

 

With the additional several Watts/m-2 from CO2, it will be many millennia before that happens again. You can rest easy....

 

But....

 

Melting of the northern ice sheets may shut down the Gulf Stream enough to bring on ice-age conditions in Europe; though that is just a regional, "minor" effect from anthropogenic climate change, and not a sign that the greenhouse effect is not still in operation.

 

Welcome to the future....

~

[Turtle]

thnx 4 the move moderator. :thumbs_up

 

i should say that 5 or 6 years ago i was asking pretty much the same questions here that sexton is and i was also making some mistakes of putting too much trust in popular science sources. i should also say i was around in the 70's to read the warnings of the coming ice age. :santa3: well, here we are 40 years later and welcome to hot flat & crowded. :smilingsun: on the one hand the internet gives us access to scholarly sources, on the other hand it is a veritable flood of speculation & bamboozle.

 

so thens...

 

Ice ages develop when the wattage per square meter, at 65degrees N. latitude, drops enough (usually from Milankovitch or solar/orbital forcing) to allow snow to persist throughout the summer... and to accumulate new snow over the next year... and so on.

 

With the additional several Watts/m-2 from CO2, it will be many millennia before that happens again. You can rest easy....

...

 

so i have been re-reading some threads and following links and i found nothing so definitive on solar forcing as you describe. i find arguments for correlation to recorded temps using sun measures other than sunspots, such as length of minimums & maximums, but all seem to conclude with "possible"'s, "suggest"'s, and assorted "if"'s, "and"'s, and "but"'s. moreover, none of the proposed correlations can provide a mechanism whereby the sun's effort is working on earth vis-à-vis climate. :shrug:

 

so essay, do you have a source with some new info? enquiring minds want to know. :D

 

ps i should also say that the concensus i get in my reading is that the solar forcing issue is about fine-tuning models of greenhouse heating, not about discounting them. :smilingsun: