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Is peak oil a fraud? from "Does it matter if global warming is a fraud?"


Eclipse Now

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Moderation note: The first 9 post of this thread were moved from ”Does it matter if global warming is a fraud?”, because they’re a discussion of a related but distinct subject.

 

If Global Warming is a fraud, then I'd be sooooo delighted because then we'd only have about 7 or 8 other serious threats to civilisation to contend with!

 

Basically, global warming seems to be the only thing forcing our governments to think about how we are going to leave fossil fuels. The limited supply of fossil fuels just doesn't seem to work, and we have to leave them before they leave us or we're in BIG trouble! Peak oil and gas are almost here, and the University of Newcastle has determined that peak coal will arrive somewhere between 2010 and 2048... such a big margin of error because coal resource reporting isn't that accurate.

 

But after peak fossil fuels it means we've used up all the easy to get to, easy to mine, cheap stuff. Then it is into the harder to get to, ever declining, ever more expensive stuff because it will never again meet demand.

 

Also note this: it will cost ever more energy to obtain the post-peak stuff, resulting in ever less NET ENERGY product. EG: If you want a banana you might pay a few bucks. If you REALLY want one of the last banana's on earth my might pay a few hundred bucks! But the ONE thing you'd never pay if you want a banana is 2 bananas.

 

When mining oil costs extra oil than you're getting out of the reserve, you shut the well. That's why about a third of the oil in oil fields is never extracted. You could whack in a nuclear power plant and hey presto, there's lots of energy for ELECTRIC mining of the oil and now we've got our oil back... except that it is now taking an expensive nuclear power plant just to get that oil which is now even more expensive!

 

So basically, the laws of physics dictate that after peak the stuff is far more expensive.

 

And that's the rub! We have to leave oil, gas, and coal before we reach half way through the lifetime of their supply, or we'll be bankrupted.

 

So if global warming proved to be a fraud, I'd be so pleased.... so relieved, because then it would have done the job that basically we all should have been doing ANYWAY to get off the oil and gas and coal before they flippin' well PEAK!

 

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/PU200611_Fig1.png

post-12152-128210107514_thumb.png

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Is peak oil a fraud?

 

It's always some indefinite date in the future, it's been predicted over and over again. There is a ban on exploration and production off most of the US East and West coasts, how do we know how much oil is left, if we can't look?

 

And as for Essay's question: "So you don't think AGW (human influence on climate via CO2) is a valid assumption?" I don't know how strong CO2's greenhouse effect is, though I know it influences climate. Man made CO2 is a much smaller subset of atmospheric carbon dioxide, I don't believe it dominates climate change.

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See the white lines at the bottom of the oil chart above? That's your country! Don't you know it is a HISTORICAL FACT that America peaked 40 years ago!!!! Disprove it, go on, I'd LOVE to see this.

 

You currently import $600 billion dollars worth of oil a year. That's $6 trillion dollars a decade. A trillion here and a trillion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. It's going up. Your country has 5% of the people yet uses 25% of the world's oil. All I can say is you're going to be in a nasty place when oil hits $250 a barrel my friend, as you live in the most oil dependent country on earth. America's little game of Empire is going to quickly crumble if you can't get yourselves off oil and onto Fast-Rail and electric cars, quick smart!

 

No dude, peak oil is real. It's bleeding hard to decide if it is around 2012, 2015, or 2020 I'll give you that. All the most credible geologists I know are spread around that timeframe, so I'm not betting on any one year over the next decade. Could start to hit this year or in a decade. I don't know.

 

But the evidence is clear. 15 of the top 30 oil producing nations have peaked, and are now permanently in decline. The entire NON-OPEC world (read, all us Westerners) has peaked, and the ONLY guys in the world saying they HAVEN'T peaked and are not going to peak any time soon are the OPEC block.

 

And guess what? You know that Freedom of Information stuff you go on about, with the ideal of science being open and accountable?

 

OPEC don't let anyone from the Western world in to audit their books and check their wells. There is NO international oil cop. Basically your EIA says that the world is relying on Saudi Arabia to supply all future increases in oil production, and everyone clicks their heels together 3 times and whispers "Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia" to themselves. Everyone relies on SA. When SA peaks, the WORLD peaks, get it?

 

And SA only have one real product... oil. It's not just their COMPANY at stake here, as in the case of Exxon-Mobile fighting global warming. This is their ENTIRE NATIONAL ECONOMY at stake!

 

So you want a conspiracy? You want misinformation? You want BIG SECRETS!? Forget climategate BrianG, and tell us how we know how much oil SA has! :)

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Where did you get the graph? Ooops, never mind, I see it: Wikipedia got it from: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. I guess they have a transparent agenda, I like the name.

 

That sure is good news for OPEC and Saudi Arabia, rumors of peak oil justify higher oil prices. So does telling folks oil is rare, trying to "reduce use" makes high prices an easier sell.

 

Do you know why I think Saudi Arabia has so much oil? They invest in exploration, drilling and infrastructure.

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Can you please stop just asserting opinions and actually do some homework for once if you're going to write here?

 

NO SOUP FOR YOU!

Seinfeld - Soup Nazi episode.

 

How do we know how much oil Saudi Arabia has? How does your Department of Energy know? Your Energy Information Agency sub-department of the DOE? How does AMERICA know how much oil SA has? Off you go... that will take you a week or so to nut out.

 

Or you could just watch 4 Corners.

Four Corners Broadband Edition: Peak Oil

 

The optimists count on a doubling of Saudi production by 2020. The Saudi Oil Minister has insisted publicly, and repeatedly, that his country will deliver.

 

ALI AL-NAIMI, SAUDI OIL MINISTER 2004: On this point, I want to be clear, ladies and gentlemen. We have more than sufficient reserves to increase production capacity and are committed to do so in line with demand growth. We believe that Saudi Arabia could produce at substantially higher levels for the next 50 years.

 

COLIN CAMPBELL, ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL: No, that's absolute rubbish. You cannot possibly believe such statements. It's absolutely beyond belief.

 

ROBERT HIRSCH, CONSULTANT US DEPT OF ENERGY: Basically, what they're asking us to do is to trust them. And, frankly, on something that's the lifeblood of our civilisation and the way we live, to trust somebody who won't allow any audits is extremely risky. I personally don't believe the numbers that are out there.

 

SADAD AL-HUSSEINI, FORMER DIRECTOR SAUDI ARAMCO: I think His Excellency, the Minister of Petroleum has said that we will meet demand as it materialises.

 

JONATHAN HOLMES: No senior executive of Saudi Aramco - even one recently retired - will publicly contradict his own government. But Sadad Al-Husseini, who was, for many years, head of Saudi Aramco's exploration division, admits that making good on the Minister's promises won't be easy. Saudi Arabia is no exception to a global problem.

 

SADAD AL-HUSSEINI, FORMER DIRECTOR SAUDI ARAMCO: The easy oil has already been produced. The - the remaining reserves, as significant and substantial as they are, are going to be more expensive and gradually more demanding to produce. Therefore the future capacity is slower to come on stream than what it has been the traditional past.

 

JONATHAN HOLMES: Sadad Al-Husseini agrees with Robert Hirsch that the time for consuming nations to start worrying is now.

 

SADAD AL-HUSSEINI, FORMER DIRECTOR SAUDI ARAMCO: Well, I think in many of the major consuming countries, the leadership has been asleep on the watch. Everybody in the industry realises that oil and gas are the backbone of global economies. Somehow, I guess politicians felt that this was not going to be an issue on their watch, that it was too far into the future, and therefore didn't pay attention to it.

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As I said above:

Can you please stop just asserting opinions and actually do some homework for once if you're going to write here?

 

Please try and back up your claims with a source.

 

But if you don't believe me, try this file from a Dr Bezdek report to the DOE EIA.

 

And even Exxon are speaking of the end of 'easy oil', the first half of the oil age...

“ All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. ”

 

— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005[37]

 

Wikipedia.

 

Back to global supply: did you realise you have to FIND oil before you can BURN IT?

 

Please tell us how global discovery of oil is doing? Is it on an upward trend? Or has it reached a plateau? Or, heaven forbid, has it already peaked and discovery is starting to decline? Is there a discovery trend, and if so, how strong is it... up, level, or down, and how long has the trend been that way?

 

Prepare to be amazed... most people do not know this simple historical fact. Good luck with that!

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Eclipse you sound just like my buddy that went into a deep depression a year ago after watching some so-called documentaries on peak oil. The "easy" everything get picked out right away. What idiot would begin with the hard to get stuff?

Ha ha, of course! :confused: It's just common sense that the easy stuff gets picked, mined, drilled, harvested, etc.

 

Just remember, if you really want a banana you might pay $100 bucks for it, but whatever you're willing to pay for it you won't pay 2 bananas. Translate that into energy, and you can see what I mean. (But for some reason it's more fun to talk about bananas!:shrug:)

 

Eclipse any comments on the brazilian oil discoveries?

No, have you got a particular region, or even better, a particular field name in mind? Are these actual land based discoveries :shrug: or just more deepwater discoveries? How big? Maximum flow rates per day? A link to what you have in mind would be great.

 

Cheers.

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Can you please show me the relevant page & paragraph that demonstrates Exxon believes the USA can continue 'long term production growth'? I know their silly predictions for world oil production (which is in the extreme minority of oil production claims and is more utopian and "optimistic" - well delusional really - than CERA above!) , but you still need to back your claims for USA production growth that could undo 40 years of production decline?

 

$6 trillion a decade (going up) is a LOT of money to lose when you appear to be claiming the USA could just 'drill baby drill'.

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Can you please show me the relevant page & paragraph that demonstrates Exxon believes the USA can continue 'long term production growth'?...

I never made a claim for US oil production, except that after a 27 year ban on expanded exploration, and still no system of expanded offshore leasing, we don't know how much oil is out there. I made a claim for Exxon, they are looking at 1% annual production growth over the next thirty years. No peak oil for them.

 

$6 trillion a decade (going up) is a LOT of money to lose when you appear to be claiming the USA could just 'drill baby drill'.

 

You got that right, but our environmentalists favor outsourcing production to countries with poor and bad environmental protections. If we could lease offshore and federal lands production rights, we could help pay down the national debt with oil royalties.

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You got that right, but our environmentalists favor outsourcing production to countries with poor and bad environmental protections. If we could lease offshore and federal lands production rights, we could help pay down the national debt with oil royalties.

 

So that's why we buy most of our oil from foreign suppliers, because the environmentalists favor it? :naughty:

 

(You forgot to include the word "wackos" after environmentalist, Rush)

 

Boy, I can see it now.....kickin' back on the beach with my lady on a lovely afternoon, wishing I could see the sunset behind the line of oil drilling platforms offshore.

 

Is there some reason why it is imperative that we use oil to power our vehicles? Does anyone really care what it is that powers our vehicles as long as it gets us from here to there in a reasonable amount of time?

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...Is there some reason why it is imperative that we use oil to power our vehicles? Does anyone really care what it is that powers our vehicles as long as it gets us from here to there in a reasonable amount of time?

 

Hydrocarbons are energy dense, it's a very efficient transportation fuel.

 

OK, if you think we are running out of oil, can you name any other mineral resources that have ever run out? Is there a precedent for peak oil? Please understand, I'm excluding biological resources (so called renewables) because I admit ambergris is far scarcer these days.

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Ha ha... Just remember, if you really want a banana you might pay $100 bucks for it, but whatever you're willing to pay for it you won't pay 2 bananas. ....
Yes, but you might pay half a banana.

 

In fact, that is what we did at Prudho Bay on the north coast of Alaska. I wish I could quote my source but that was maybe ten years ago. Basically, after full production was achieved, they tallied up the cost and for every barrel of oil they got out of the ground, it cost half a barrel to supply the energy for the tools, the buildings, the transportation, the drilling and pumping, building the pipeline, and keeping the pipeline heated.

 

As for the remark about more exploration and drilling -- we already have. Geology constrains where oil can be, therefore where it even makes sense to explore. We have explored the vast, vast majority of the plausible fields on our continent and our continental shelves. The regions we haven't explored can be given "best case" estimates by statistical correlation. We don't drill more because we haven't found reserves worth the drilling. Even with the energy cost at Prudho Bay being 50%, that was still "easier" (read, more lucrative) than most any other reserve available at the time.

 

We do have some reserves in National Parks and other eco-sensitive areas. But if you think they are large enough to dismiss the "peak oil" argument, you are just fooling yourself. Those reserves are a tiny fraction of what came out of Oklahoma in the good ol' oil boom days.

 

Again, sorry I have forgotten my sources. But they were entirely credible at the time, maybe a decade ago.

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