Global warming? I am more worried about global cooling.

[kmcolo]

 

[Deletions]

 

This is disrupting the gulf stream, and has already made it noticably weaker (in the range of 80% of what it was just two or three decades ago).

 

It is certainly true that this could happen. And, as you say, (link would be here, but I am new) was thought to be in the process of happening. Further research has now led to the conclusion that it is (another link would be here, but alas...) not happening right now.

 

All the land along the North Atlantic is warmed by the gulf stream, especially Europe. Consider that Europe is far north of the USA, yet has a comparable climate, and more temperate. If the gulf stream weakened too much, Europe could cool down considerably, possibly rendering it far less habitable.

 

This is an area where predictions are very difficult and one that is not well constrained. It might well be that in a warmer world Europe would cool. But to cool enough to start another ice age... I think this has not shown up in the models.

[kmcolo]

So far though, none of the data I have processed is consistent with claims that man is reponsible.

 

I would be interested in finding out what data this is, how you processed it, how you analyzed it, and what you found.

[kmcolo]

The source of most of this talk can be traced back to the IPCC, they produce a Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) - here's where you can find it :-

W^3.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf

 

Now have a look at page 34, the graph of Global surface Temperature.

Looks like it spells doom BUT thre are two vital pieces missing, neither the Medieval warm period nor the mini Ice age appear. The evidence for these periods comes from many sources, tree rings, silt, Ice cores, written records etc. That graph is the whole basis of the case for man made GW.

 

The timing and global extent of these periods, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, are still controversial. See quote from IPCC below. The problem here is that temperature records from time periods are heavily Europe focused and influenced.

 

More recently it is suggested that sunspot cycle time more closely follows temperature over a period of about 150 years - that's where I am at now, I have a mass of raw sunspot observations going back to around 1874, ok they are direct observations, written down by amateurs (with no political axe to grind). I also have a mass of temperature data again from rural areas, gathered by amateurs with no axe to grind - at present that's the data I'm into. Initially from this data I see a trend of this temperature rise slowing down - I know it's local stuff and it could be an error to rely on this BUT both datasets (One from Ireland and one from Scandinavia) show the same general trend. I am looking for similar datasets from further afield.

 

 

Cool! What exciting and fun research to be doing. And you also see the limitations with the possible large error bars due to "amateur" measurements and limitations in instrumentation. Also you see the problem of your limited data set. One thing I did not understand was your statement "I see a trend of this temperature rise slowing down". What do you mean? That the trend for the last 150 years suggests warming is slowing down (which would be the opposite of what we see) or that the future trend is for slowing down. If the later, how do you come to this conclusion?

 

[...]

whatever the cause we'll just have to 'ride it out' we've done it before we can do it again.

 

We've never done it as complex societies with 6 billion mouths to feed pushing the limits of sustainability and otherwise already taxing the ecological system.

 

Quote from the IPCC TAR (pg. 102)

Evidence does not support the existence of globally synchronous periods of cooling or warming associated with the ‘Little Ice Age’ and ‘Medieval Warm Period’. However, reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures do show a cooling during the 15th to 19th centuries and a relatively warm period during

the 11th to 14th centuries, though the latter period is still cooler than the late 20th century.

[kmcolo]

So, don't wet your pants or jump off a bridge, I say I think the trend will reverse within three to seven years, I cant prove it but then GW freaks can't prove what the weather will be like next year!

 

I don't know if I'm overstepping the bounds of the group posting agreement here (sorry if I am) but that's a fairly silly thing to say in a science oriented discussion, no? That you've got this idea that can't be proven. Well a lot of people do (they call them theoretical physicists or cosmologists). And your playing rhetorical games with the weather idea implies to me that you are not approaching this subject with inquiry in mind. Weather and climate are two very different things.

[Titas Aduksus]

Don't care much for amateurs eh? Pehaps we should ignore the works of Joseph Priestley, David H Levy and a host of others. We might also ignore the works of a certain maths & physics teacher who, failing to find a post became a patent clerk, who then relied on the work of a poorly educated blacksmith's son (Michael H farady) to produce General and Special Relativity.

 

And since most 'on the ground' data is not actually collected by leading Phd climatologists we can ignore the IPCC report anyway. Weather data today throughout the world is still mostly collected by volunteers both on land and at sea, this is essential to calibrate the new technologies such as observations from space.

 

I see no objection whatsoever to me you or anyone else suggesting that they think tomorrow it'll turn cooler, the mistake would be to only accept data that would support this, I hypothesise that the global climate will begin to cool in a few years, I will test that hypothesis, it is not a theory nor a prediction.

[Ganoderma]

are you saying that it has been rising? are you leaning towards sunspots for this? and you are thinking it will likely get cooler soon? how much cooler? air/water currents stopped and freezing begins? or just get snow back in south western canada, cooler?

[Titas Aduksus]

are you saying that it has been rising? are you leaning towards sunspots for this? and you are thinking it will likely get cooler soon? how much cooler? air/water currents stopped and freezing begins? or just get snow back in south western canada, cooler?

 

That the average global temperature has been rising is agreed by most people.

 

Sunspots no, but there does seem to be a close correlation between sunspot cycle time and average global temperature over the last couple of hundred years. I have been able to obtain raw data with which I can produce my own graph to assess whether this is true.

 

In terms of cooling I believe I see a reduction in the rate of increase - which could indicate a level period, or a reduction or it could rise again, my hunch is a fall.

[freeztar]

That the average global temperature has been rising is agreed by most people.

 

I thought that this was the whole issue! Who are these people that are not in the "most" category. I would be very interested to see the data that supports their claims.

[Titas Aduksus]

Freeztar,

 

I try to choose my words carefully, to say "All people agree global tempreature is rising" - would be a little silly, one simply cannot ask everybody. To clarify though I know of no orginisations or websites that deny global warming. (I'll let you know if I find any though).

[freeztar]

:hihi:

10-4

[LJP07]

It must be argued that the Earth will move to a more elliptical orbit that it does every few thousand years. This distance from the Sun will create another Ice Age. Is it really a problem?

[TheBigDog]

It must be argued that the Earth will move to a more elliptical orbit that it does every few thousand years. This distance from the Sun will create another Ice Age. Is it really a problem?

When the guilt merchants try to convince the world that the "global cooling" is happening because of pollution, and that if we were just good to the earth she would keep us warm, then yes that becomes a problem for me.

 

Bill

[freeztar]

It must be argued that the Earth will move to a more elliptical orbit that it does every few thousand years. This distance from the Sun will create another Ice Age. Is it really a problem?

 

If it must be argued, then supply something to backup that argument. (I'm not saying I don't agree necessarily, but ya know;))

 

When the guilt merchants try to convince the world that the "global cooling" is happening because of pollution, and that if we were just good to the earth she would keep us warm, then yes that becomes a problem for me.

 

Let's not worry about the "guilt merchants", eh? Let's focus on the facts.

[InfiniteNow]

When the guilt merchants try to convince the world that the "global cooling" is happening because of pollution, and that if we were just good to the earth she would keep us warm, then yes that becomes a problem for me.

Guilt merchants? Aren’t those the folks in the mall that put the cutest puppies possible in the front window? You know, the ones with the sad eyes who look up at you and tear your heart out if you do not take them home with you… Guilt merchants. :hihi:

 

Can we all just agree to call it Global Climate Change for crying out loud?

[Titas Aduksus]

If it must be argued, then supply something to backup that argument. (I'm not saying I don't agree necessarily, but ya know;))

 

 

 

Let's not worry about the "guilt merchants", eh? Let's focus on the facts.

 

 

The facts - easy,

1) There are three ways the climate can go UP - Down or Stable (that'd be a first!).

 

2) IF the climate goes down it'll be due to pollution and we'll all be taxed for it.

 

3) If the climate goes up it'll be due to CO2 and we'll all be taxed for it.

 

4) If the climate goes stable we'll all be taxed to keep it that way.

 

Now the Soviet Union is gone how else can you scare people into parting with their cash - no I'm not a cynic... well maybe just a little..:)

[freeztar]

The facts - easy,

1) There are three ways the climate can go UP - Down or Stable (that'd be a first!).

 

2) IF the climate goes down it'll be due to pollution and we'll all be taxed for it.

 

3) If the climate goes up it'll be due to CO2 and we'll all be taxed for it.

 

4) If the climate goes stable we'll all be taxed to keep it that way.

 

Now the Soviet Union is gone how else can you scare people into parting with their cash - no I'm not a cynic... well maybe just a little..:)

 

We know how to tax. We do not know how to change climate.

So, how will climate change us?

[TheBigDog]

Let's not worry about the "guilt merchants", eh? Let's focus on the facts.

Funny, that is exactly what I said. Every post I make on climate change is based on facts, and I keep harping on those who let passion for their cause cloud facts. I am of the opinion that those who focus on blaming humanity for being the cause of natural weather cycles (such as the orbit of the earth stretching away from the sun causing cooling) are a problem. That is a guilt merchant as much as a evangelical blaming Katrina on sin.

 

The current warming cycle is not in question. The cause is in question. It cannot be stated as fact that the global weather would be any different today if the industrial revolution had never happened. We infer an effect and because we can only control ourselves we hope that changing what we do might make a difference, but that is not a fact. Changes in human behavior might make a difference, but there is no certainty.

 

This thread hypothesized a global cooling from the earth moving away from the sun. I am stating that if that happened there would be people blaming human actions for the cooling of the earth. Those are guilt merchants who sell human achievement as the root of all suffering; regardless of facts and regardless of logic.

 

Can we all just agree to call it Global Climate Change for crying out loud?

For you, I will call it Susan.

 

Bill